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Happy Belmont day…

We are a neck away from being undefeated through two races of the triple crown, thanks to a smashing victory by Napoleon Solo in the Preakness.

Let’s keep the momentum going and try to pad the bankroll in the Belmont Stakes, and in the process, extend our Belmont winning streak to 3 races in a row.

Unfortunately, this is not a Belmont rendition where I have a strong opinion, as on paper, it looks like a wide open race, and where there are at least 4 to 5 logical contenders, and all of which offer low odds….In this scenario or situation, 9 times out of 10, I would pick “the wrong one” and the one time I am right, the odds of the winner never offset the losers to see any kind of profit.

So, I say this to the blog faithful….tread lightly and let’s hope for the best.

Given the quandry – as noted – of trying to pick the winner from the logical contenders….let’s pivot and roll out an angle in the handicapper’s toolbox called….

The “WHAT THE HECK” angle.

Basically, the toolbox verbiage says….

If the handicapper doesn’t have a strong conviction on a pick in a race AND can make a case for AT LEAST HALF THE FIELD….and none of those horses offers value on the tote board, then the capper should:

• Pivot away from the logical contenders, AND
• “Dig a little deeper” for a viable longshot that makes sense, AND
• Place a “what the heck” small wager on the longshot horse

So, instead of passing on the race and sitting hopelessly on the sideline with no action, lets jump into the Belmont pool with a $$$ longshot….

Note, this angle was born from the 2011 Belmont where I gave out the “what the heck” exacta box – Stay Thirsty (16-1) and Ruler on Ice (24-1), that paid $928 on a 2-dollar wager.

And the pick is…..

5 – Ottinho (20-1)

Here are the 4 reasons I like this horse:

1 – He has some hidden talent – A half brother to Gun Runner (same dam) should improve with some time off as the lineage of Gun Runner seem to get better as the 3YO season progresses. Trainer is not one to throw his horses into the deep end and I respect the entry here and I believe it is a sign of trainer confidence. He had a minor foot issue which kept him from a Preakness start, and I believe the trainer has been high on this guy since his maiden win. His 2^nd place in the Blue Grass was nothing more than a prep and the assumption was that he was gunning for a 2^nd place finish to earn the needed derby points. With the time off to physically mature, it’s possible Ottinho steps up and runs a big race. The question is whether that race will be good enough vs. this level of competition.

2 – Unfavorable Track Profiles – In his last two races, he was up against it from a track profile perspective. Two starts back, he raced off the pace, in the Withers Stakes. That day, speed and horses near the lead dominated, so there is a case to be made that he was compromised by the track bias that day. In his last race in the Blue Grass, he was running near the rail, which was absolutely dead for half of the Keeneland meet. He did come running late to snag 2^nd and the gallop out was nice. I pointed out a similar track profile disadvantage with our Preakness pick, Napoleon Solo, who landed in the winner’s circle at a nice price.

3 – Trip – There is a clear lack of pace signed on for this year’s Belmont, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the “intent” is to be more forwardly placed. With the expected pace setter to his inside in the 2 horse Powershift, I can envision this one sitting in 2^nd flight, “parked off the leader’s flank”. The track has been favoring speed so far, and I think these tactics and trip scenario give him the best chance to win – pounce at top of stretch and hold off the late closers.

4 – Help from the Gods – This guy has never raced over a wet track, and with a 50% chance of some downpours, a deluge would improve the chances of a big performance. Why? Because the off-track pedigree is phenomenal and a wet track would be absolutely in his WHEELHOUSE !!!! The dam produced Gun Runner whose progeny has performed extremely well over the off-going. On the sire side (Quality Road), there are some nice slop influences like Elusive Quality (Gone West) Strawberry Road, and Alydar. The timing for the hit or miss storms are in the 3 to 7 pm window, which would be ideal to turn a fast track to sloppy, just before post time.

Overall, Ottinho — as a fresh face on the scene — offers tremendous value at the morning line odds of 20-1, and I also like that the jock and trainer combination has been very hot together since the beginning of April, connecting 8 times, from 19 tries. And, if we can get a little luck with a pre-race downpour, it would only help our chances of springing a Belmont shocker. Bottom line….would I love it if our top pick was running at the classic Belmont distance (1.5 miles) or running later in the year? Yes, I would. But, I still like him as an outsider with a decent chance, and I will go ahead and make him my “what the heck” Belmont flyer.

Other Tidbits:

Do I like other horses? Yes, and that’s the problem….which led to the pivot to a viable alternative, at generous odds.

The most likely winner is Renegade but at 8/5 odds, I am going to pass as the value is not there. He ripped our heart out in the Derby, losing by a neck, and I am not going to endorse him as the chalk in this spot, in a wide-open race. Overall, I’m not eating chalk just for the sake of extending our meaningless Belmont winning streak.

If you are risk averse, and want to play it safe on “one of the logicals” then by all means, send it in on the short priced runners that you prefer, and hope for the best. In which case, I would recommend including the 5 horse underneath in any exotic plays, especially the trifecta.

Predicted Order of Finish

• 5 – Ottinho
• 4 – Renegade
• 7 – Commandment
• 9 – Golden Tempo

Wagering Strategy

• $20 win and place – 5 horse – $40 total
• $5 Ex box – 5-4 (Ottinho – Renegade) – $10
• $5 Ex box – 5-7 (Ottinho – Commandment) – $10
• $2 Trifecta box – 4-5-7 = $12
• $2 Trifecta key – 7 with 4-5-9 with 4-5-9 = $12

A modest $84 investment.

One closing note, if you see the track turning muddy or sloppy, confidence goes WAY up and I would recommend doubling the bets. I would also consider throwing a $10 saver win bet on Commandment as he should love it wet as well.

Let’s close out the triple crown with a bang !!!

Good Luck !!!

Whitey

Editors note — Thanks to all who DM’d me on the Preakness undercard plays I posted….that was truly a special day and one I will remember for a long time.