We have 10 runners today and this year’s rendition sees a venue change to Saratoga as Belmont is down for repairs.

This is a major development as:

The distance has been reduced to one mile and one quarter which is a quarter mile less than the normal distance for this race.

Additionally the tighter turns at Saratoga replace the wider sweeping turns at Belmont.

What does it all mean…probably not much but I will be reducing reliance on distance pedigree due to the shorter race.

Here is how I break down the race:

I am going to toss the two horses who ran on derby day and Preakness day, as its really tough to perform at a high level in the 3^rd race in 5 weeks. SO Mystic Dan and Seize the Grey are downgraded.

Leaning against the two Pletcher outsiders in Antiquarian and Protective, as they seem a cut below and represent the barns 2^nd stringers. Protective has an outside chance to hit the board as a longshot as he had a tough trip in the Peter Pan. If this was a mile and a half I would probably upgrade both runners chances.

The Wine Steward is a gritty NY bred that always seem to show up but he may be a cut below these and I don’t think the stretch out in distance does him any favors. He does have a nice win over the track. But, leaning against.

And, that brings me to Mindframe….who epitomizes boom or bust outcomes. This is a tough call because I can see him winning by 6 or getting trounced, probably nothing in between. He is a buzz horse, hails from a good barn, and has tons of talent, so it would be dangerous to exclude this guy. But, I am probably leaning against even though it’s a tough call. This would only be his 3^rd start and he really beat a soft allowance field last time while setting comfortable fractions. In his debut, he was impressive and the speed fig was awesome but he got the perfect trip that day. To me it kind of feels like a sucker bet and the fact he is coming off Lasix gives me pause to back him at a short price, as he will be way overbet.

As far as race set up I don’t see much speed in the race on paper so that will benefit the front runners and speed did fairly well on the Friday card.

Advantage front runners and stalkers.

Which leads me to my top 2:

I am going to go Dornach (6 horse, 15-1 ML) here as I think his trip in Derby was brutal and has every right to bounce back today with his tactical speed advantage. Has tons of talent and he can be either on the lead or sit right off the 1 horse. He benefits the most with today’s reduced distance in the Belmont, from the normal distance.

My 2^nd choice is Resilience (2 horse, 10-1 ML) as he had showed signs of improvement in the Derby, making an 8 wide move on the final turn. He is definitely headed in the right direction since the blinkers were added and I really like the potential for a great trip, with tactical speed in 2^nd flight while saving ground. He will be pushing his limits for distance here but he is another that benefits from the distance reduction at Saratoga. Trainer is not one to take triple crown shots so part of the logic is putting faith in the connections and their level of confidence.

Rounding out the top 4:

Sierra Leone (9 horse, 9-5 ML) was a tough luck loser in the derby and gets a huge jockey upgrade today as Prat is the best rider in the country. May not get the dream set up with a slower pace today but overall he should be running late, and is the deserving favorite. Main danger to ruin our Belmont party.

And then to round out the super, Honor Marie (8 horse, 12-1 ML) can definitely clunk up for 4^th, and has an outside chance to blow up the board in a meltdown scenario. He had a terrible trip and gets a big jock upgrade. Has tons of hidden talent just needs a better trip and pace set up to make noise.

Wagering:

Big win bet on Dornach

Small win bet on Resilience

And lets box up a trifecta with the 4 runners – 2-6-8-9

Good Luck

Whitey

We’ve had success over the years and the trend continued last year with the cold deck exacta.

Lets get right to the picks, and my top 4 predicted order of finish:

2 – Tapit Trice – 3-1: The ML seems low and I think we get 4-1 or better as tons of money will come in on Forte and Angel of Empire. The main mistake many cappers make is not being able to toss out a bad race and yes, he threw in a clunker in the Derby. But, all along, this one was being pointed to the Belmont and my hunch is he didn’t like the track at Churchill. But, probably the biggest reason I am on him is the grinding running style — he has that one pace style that favors the marathon Belmont runners and reportedly he has been working well on the track. Has the breeding for the distance by Tapit and stamina on the dam side. To me, the last was a toss, and I had him tabbed as my Belmont winner back in March, so I am not jumping ship at the last minute in a so-so Belmont field.  Only negative is the post draw as he doesn’t like the kick back but in a long race I can see Luis working his way to the outside down the long backstretch to mitigate. Lets take the lay up and the 10 dollar mutual return, and call it a day.

9 – Red Route One – 15-1: Doesn’t check many of the boxes I look for in a Belmont runner having raced a ton in 2023 and has that closing style that’s over-rated in the Belmont. But, as I dig deeper, and go back into the time machine of Belmont Lessons learned — He fits the profile of a Sir Winston – who I liked in the Belmont but didn’t pull the trigger as I was afraid the closing style would hurt him. Could be similar set up, where he is closer to the pace like he was in the Preakness, and explodes late. That’s exactly what Sir Winston did and he fits the same late pace profile – very strong late pace figs and the race set up that day like a turf race where the fastest finisher won. And to top it off, the pedigree is A++ for the distance. Gun Runner up top with stamina influences Tapit and Kris S on the dam side. And, we get Rosario in the saddle, the same jock who rode Sir Winston to victory in 2018.

6 – Forte – 5-2: Likely favorite was a late derby scratch with a foot issue. Probably the one to beat but coming off the layoff may be overbet. Not sure the running style works to his advantage with the uncertain pace scenario. But probably the biggest red flag for me is the breeding. I think the mile and a half is not in the wheel house, as Violence has the profile of a one turn miler as a sire. Yes, he has some stamina on the bottom with Blame but as the race favorite, there is no way I can pick this one on top with the question marks with pedigree, fitness, and running style. Could clunk up for 3^rd and that’s the way I’ll play him.

3 – Arcangelo – 8-1: Like the Peter Pan win but honestly the field was pretty weak, but he did look great doing it and loved the grit in the stretch. Breeding is good for the Belmont distance and I think he can get a share of the money here if the trip works out. Great underneath candidate.

Other runners:

The 1 looks to be a possible rabbit for his two stable mates. If he had Lasix on I might be intrigued as Ortiz is a master on front runners. I may be inclined to throw underneath on some tickets as he may hang around and hit the board, Big step up in class and not sure he is ready at this level but I still wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the board.

The 4 got a gift in the Preakness when the jock of coffeewithchris ceded the easy lead to him. He will take action at the window being a Baffert runner but I am not a fan of the win in the watered-down Preakness.

The 8 Angel of Empire will be way overbet here as the distance is not ideal with To Honor and Serve and Carson City on the bottom of the pedigree. I’ll be playing against as many Derby lovers will be coming back for an encore bet.

The 7 has all the makings of a wise guy horse who will take play. I am not really a fan but wouldn’t talk anyone off him.

The 5 doesn’t belong and may try to add some spice to the pace.

Wagering

Here is how I would spend 100 bucks

$60 to win 2

$10 saver to win on 9

$10 EX box 2-9

$2Tri box 2-9-6

Good Luck !!

The 8 horse is scratched which changes the whole complexion of race and makes the race a pass for me….

The 8 was one of the favorites and we were keying him up top in the wagers.

Suggestion would be to save your money for the Belmont as now Mage becomes 3-5 and its tough to swallow that chalk ….

Anyone who needs actin bets can do the following

Small win bet 6 horse

$20 Ex straight – 3 with 6

$2 Superfecta – 3 with 6 with 2-5-7 with ALL

As they say…. We are on to Baltimore !!!!

Unfortunately, we have a watered-down field with only one Derby runner scheduled to compete.

Overall, this is a weak Preakness field, and I am not sure it sets up an ideal scenario for the handicapper trying to make a few bucks.

But, let’s try and squeeze a profit from the lemons we were dealt as we are riding a 3 leg Triple Crown winning streak dating back to last year’s Preakness.

Here is quick field analysis, followed by the approach to structure the tickets.

1 – National Treasure – 4-1: Looks like boom or bust horse to me with either the chance to wire the field or finish up the track. Baffert only 2 for 25 when re-adding blinkers to a horse and you have to think the trainers’ shenanigans are behind him, now that the jurisdictions are keeping a watchful eye. If he was 10-1, sure I would give him a look but the connections will depress the price and 4-1 or less is not fair value. Will lean against here and hope he doesn’t bring his “A” game.

2 – Chase the Chaos – 50-1:  Looks like an outsider on paper given his preference for the synthetic surface. Still, is well-rested, and perhaps an outside chance he can clunk up for 4^th and spoil superfecta dreams.

3 – Mage 8-5: Derby winner displayed tons of talent rallying from off the pace and shows up here on short rest. No doubt, the one to beat and the deserving favorite. Would not knock anyone who is singling this guy in the last leg of a pick 4 or pick 5. Main win contender.

4 – Coffeewithchris – 20-1: Likely pacesetter may find himself alone on the lead with soft fractions. In that scenario, perhaps he can hold on for 3^rd at best, but more than likely he is outclassed today and will give way mid-stretch.

5 – Red Route One – 10-1: His best chance of hitting the board is if a fast pace develops, which doesn’t seem likely to me. He looks like a one-run closer on paper and his best races have been in the slop. Using underneath and has all the makings of clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th scenario.

6 – Perform – 15-1: This will be the 8^th lifetime race for this guy and all were at different race tracks. So, we know he can travel. I really liked the Tesio where he rallied from no-mans-land behind a wall of horses to somehow get up for the win. Has an outside chance at an upset based on the intent of the connections, putting up the 150K supplement fee, and Shug is not a trainer that haphazardly takes a swing for the fences. Kind of oozes trainer confidence and I like that. Play underneath but maybe worth saver win bet.

7 – Blazing Sevens – 6-1: As a Chad Brown fan, and a guy who tabbed Early Voting as the Preakness winner last year, it gives me pause to have to knock this one out. He would need to take a significant step forward to pull off the upset and the 6-1 range is not fair value to partake in that adventure. Horse doesn’t have the talent of the trainer’s past Preakness winners in Early Voting and Cloud Computing, and seems like more of a one-turn miler who won’t appreciate the distance today.

8 – First Mission – 5-2: Talented Brad Cox colt might challenge for favoritism as he is quickly becoming all the rage in wise guy circles off the impressive performance in the Lexington. Lots to love here from a talent perspective and the Baffert horse he beat that day is pretty decent. This will be a major class test today and if he was facing 4 or 5 main rivals from the Derby I might be concerned. But, this is a marginal field, and he definitely fits and is a major contender to win.

My Official Predicted order of finish:

8 – First Mission – Love the post and the jock and trainer hit at 41%, and the most likely triple crown spoiler. Would consider a win bet on him at 5-2 or better but leaning towards keying him up top in the TRIs to get some value (likely will be 2-1 or less for win odds)

3 – Mage – Most talented horse in the field but the 2 week turnaround is only concern. Looks like a two horse race to me and I would be inclined to try and get some value with him singled in the Pick 4 or using underneath in tris and supers.

6 – Perform – Outside chance to crash the party with a good trip but is more likely an underneath play.

5 – Red Route One – Rosario’s best chance is to ride him like Sir Winston in the Belmont, closer to the pace and then try and unleash a late rally.

Wagering Suggestions – $110 budget

Looks like chalkfest so we need to call an audible for anyone trying to make a score…

The two favorites look like they tower over the field so let’s key on top in the exotics.

Risk adverse players can make a few bucks by betting the 8 to win.

Whatever happens, let’s save some cash for the Belmont !!!!!!

Win bet – $10 on 6 (saver, value bet)

Exacta bets – none

$2 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 2-3-5-6-7 = $12

$2 TRI Box

3-6-8 = $12

$5 Superfecta

8 with 3 with 6 with 5 = $5

$5 Superfecta

3 with 6-8 with 6-8 with 5 = $10

$1 Superfecta

8 with 3-6 with 3-5-6 with ALL = $12

$2 Superfecta

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Superfecta

3 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 = $24

Good Luck !!!

As we all are probably aware, the bridge jumper tries to make a quick 5% ROI by hammering the favorite in the show pool. What they probably don’t realize is that the bridge jumper bet is the worst bet in all of racing as they need to be right 19 out of 20 times just to break even. Profits can be made by playing against these guys as the show prices can be huge on the other runners if the favorite runs off the board.

I will be on the lookout for large sums of money in the show pool when the wagering opens in the pools. Anything over 500K or a million to open would be a red flag. Trying to get payouts of 10 15 or 20 bucks per horse on the show price for each runner.

The race in particular that I think where the favorite might be vulnerable is in the Test. (Race 9). Matareya is the ML 2-5 favorite.

There are two scenarios that might play out where she doesn’t hit the board…

1 – She drew the rail and there is tons of speed in the race and its possible she gets caught up in a speed duel and tires late. Its never ideal to be up against the rail when dueling. The 3,4,5, and 6 all have speed. Maybe one of them or a few hook up early with the favorite? Hopefully none of these horses scratch.

2- She doesn’t make the lead and it turns out she is more of a need the lead type. There are multiple horses in here with better pace numbers than her, and its quite possible that she never gets the lead in the race and is forced to do something that she may not be comfortable doing (coming from behind). She was able to successfully rate 2 back but as a 2YO she tried to rate in a G1 at Keenland and finished a disappointing 5^th. The comment was “toiled”.

Anyway, if I see the bridge jumpers out in force I will play it by betting $5 bucks to show on the other 6 runners for a total of 30. Most I can lose is just shy of 20 as two of the 6 bets will cash at 2.10.

I will also add some juice to the longshot runners with a decent chance to hit board.

The 4 Wish You Well is a talented Weaver runner with speed and I’m tossing the last with the bad break and slop. She could make the lead in the race and keep going.

The other two I will play are closers who might hit the board if the pace falls apart. These are the 2 and 7.

Will throw an extra 5 on each of these 3.

Note, this bet is only playable if bridge jumper money shows up. We need 10 15 20 25 dollar payouts for show prices in order for this to turn a profit. Its never advisable to bet horses to show and even worse to bet multiple horses to show as 5 and 6 dollar show prices will not do us any good. Translation, no bridge jumper money = no bet.

Good Luck

Look for a fast track with bright sunshine, which will be a nice change from recent history.

Lets get straight to the analysis….

The pace of the race should be contested and fast. There are at least 5 runners who want to be on or near the lead. This means I am going to favor the stalkers, mid-packers and closers over the front runners.

I am looking for Rock Your World to be the speed of the speed with Soup and Sandwich a neck off it. Most of the speed is drawn to the outside which increases the need to cross and clear the field increasing the chances for a quick opening quarter.

On paper, it looks like a pretty deep field and the betting will be evenly dispersed for the 5 through 15 contenders. Most people could probably make a legitimate case for about 10 horses in the win slot. I would differ on that and reduce that number to 5 with a realistic chance. Of the 5 with a chance, there are 2 that I like the best and stand out from the rest of the win contenders and there is one outsider that could pull the upset.

Lets get right to the picks:

Whitey’s Top 2

Number 1 – Known Agenda – 6-1.

I am expecting better value come post time, perhaps more like 8 or 9-1, mainly due to the post draw. I will throw cold water on the rail post non-sense. While its not ideal, its definitely not a reason to toss a horse – which some people do. Of note, this will be the 2^nd year where only 1 starting gate will be used – they had the AUX gate before – and with the new configuration they moved the rail post over to the right approximately 12 feet. This helps the one post, or I should say, doesn’t hinder him as it may have done in the past. I really liked the effort in the Florida Derby and I would expect a similar mid pack trip today. He is undefeated since adding the blinkers, and this son of Curlin should have no problem with the Derby distance. Most people familiar with my capping style know that I put a premium on talent and trips. The talent is definitely there as the FLA derby showed. And, I think he gets a GREAT trip. Why? Well, for one, the 4 horses to his right are closers so he should have no problem getting a forward position along the rail and saving all of the ground heading into the first turn. In addition, he has tactical speed which means he can be close to the pace if its slow up front, tucked behind the leaders, or say mid-pack, which is where I expect him, due to the fast pace up top. I also like the fact that this horse has experience racing on the rail and inside behind other horses. You cant say that about all of the horses in the race. Overall, the trip is key. In fact, for him, the race will be won or lost in the first quarter mile because if by chance he breaks slow or gets shuffled back early, and doesn’t secure that early mid pack position and finds himself say near the back of the pack on the first turn, it would likely be a disaster. He needs to get out of the gate and establish that rail position behind the pace horses yet in front of the closers. Mid pack position is key in the first turn. Turning to his FLA derby, he got a great speed fig of 112 (EQ) and overall I though the race was stronger than it looked on paper. In summary, lots to like…top class trainer in Pletcher, a top 5 jockey in Irad Ortiz, the talent level and big speed fig in the FLA derby, the blinkers light bulb angle, tactical speed to get early position, the breeding for the distance, on both sides of the family, and I think the post is a plus, putting him mid-pack along the rail, saving ground on the first turn. All we need to hope that he finds some room to pass the tiring front runners turning for home. If he can, and with some racing luck, a derby win is highly plausible.

Number 14 – Essential Quality – 3-1.

He is the horse to beat hands down, and the most likely winner. The key is to have a strategy to make some cash in the exotics with him up top. Undefeated horse is the class of the field and showed a lot in gutting out a win in the Blue Grass. Heading into the Derby there is now a “Battle Tested” check mark next to his name. Trip-wise, the speed is to his outside, so he would be best to let them clear, and then lay in 2^nd flight to the outside heading into the first turn. Look for him to make his move on the final turn and I expect him to photo with Known agenda for the win, with the 3^rd place fininsher at least 4 lengths back.

Outsider with a Chance to win, but more likely to hit board:

Number 16 – King Fury – 20-1

Has the foundation I like to see for the derby having raced 5 times as a 2YO, and I thought he had an excuse in the Juvenille. He came back in his 3 yo debut in the Lexington with blinkers off and benefited from a wicked pace and the slop. Some might discount the win as “slop aided” but I am taking a contrarian view and including this live longshot in all of my exotics. Breeding for the distance is great, and has 2 wins over the Churchill track. Trainer only comes to the party when he knows he has a chance, and I like the positive comments from him, who is usually reserved, cautious, and muted when it comes to his horses. If he can work out a trip, and if the expected fast pace develops, I think he could be rolling late, and hit the board at a nice price.

So, my top three, and predicted order of finish:

1 – Known Agenda

14 – Essential Quality

16 – King Fury

Now, lets address two other topics:

• Other Contenders who could hit the board – who I am with, and who I am against
• Other disaster pace scenarios

Superfecta Spoilers — Contenders and Longshots I am including Underneath:

2 of the longest shots in the field will be Hidden Stash and Sainthood. I will be playing both underneath in my exotics. Why?

13 – Hidden Stash – I know he doesn’t stack up well in the figures department, so this is more of a hunch play, based on breeding and trip. He is by constitution, a son of tapit and has stamina on dam side too. The fast pace will work in his favor and I expect him to be rolling late. I am tossing his last race, as he was pace compromised. The races at Tampa fit and if he can show any kind of improvement, a chance to hit the board at a long price is possible.

5 – Sainthood – I kind of get the feeling this might be a Belmont Stakes prep for the connections but still, I really liked the way he closed late on the synthetic in his last start. His trip was terrible that day getting shut off in the lane. He could have easily packed it in but instead rallied to take the place spot. The Jockey is a big positive here as he will be glued to the rail and looking to conjure memories of Calvin Borel oabard derby longshot winner, Mind That Bird. If he had one or two more races under his belt I would feel better about his chances but who knows, he could be a super-spoiler, blowing up the toteboard in 3^rd or 4^th at a huge price.

Contender I will also use:

9 -Hot Rod Charlie – Should be forwardly placed and might get the cat bird trip, making first run on the leaders turning for home.

Contenders that I fear, but didn’t make the cut….

The most polarizing horse in the race is…

15 – Rock Your World. He either wins wire to wire or finishes way up the track – nothing in-between. He is dangerous if left alone on the lead and you could envision a repeat version of the Santa Anita Derby victory. This is the disaster pace scenario I fear the most, and it might have about a 20% chance of happening.

Other Contenders with a chance but I will be against are:

Highly Motivated and The Baffert Runner Medina Spirit. Both will be overbet and for that alone, they won’t have my money. I do think Highly Motivated may be distance challenged, and the Baffert Runner is below par as a typical derby baffert runner. Of the 2 I fear more, it would be Highly Motivated.

Horses I am afraid of…

Helium and Mandaloun. Helium lacks seasoning but has talent. Mandaloun flopped in last but its almost too bad to be believed. He is getting buzz in the morning at Churchill, but will be another that gets over bet. Some sharp cappers do like Mandaloun, but also I think dumb money is climbing aboard too, based on the derby buzz.

Wagering Strategy

How do we spend 114 bucks??

Let’s keep it Simple:

• $40 Win bet on Known Agenda
• $10 Saver win bet on King Fury
• $10 Exacta box Known Agenda, Essential Quality = $20
• $2 Exacta box Known Agenda, Essential Quality, King Fury= $12
• $2 Tri Box – same three = $12
• $1 Tri Key Essential Quality over 5 horses – Known Agenda, King Fury, Hidden Stash, Sainthood, and Hot Rod Charlie = $20 (So 14 with 1-16-13-5-9)

Good Luck !!

Whitey

The race will be without this year’s best 3yo, Tiz the Law, but it looks on paper to be a competitive field, with a vastly different pace scenario than the one in the Derby.

In this ponycapper edition, we will look at:

• Pace Scenario
• Top Contenders and Predicted order of Finish
• Comments on other contenders
• Wagering suggestions
• Bonus commentary on the Black eyed Susan, the 3 yo filly race right before the Preakness

Pace Scenario

Fast and contentious – that is how I expect the pace to be. There is at least 4 horses with a propensity for showing early speed in the race, and the lone speed derby-gift scenario for Authentic will not repeat today. This race should set up perfectly for a stalker, mid pack runner or dead closer to win this year’s running of the Preakness.

Top Contenders and Predicted Order of Finish

1 – Max Player – Number 8 (12-1)

When I was youngster working at old Philly Park sweeping floors, an old timer gave me a tip at the track to look for key jockey switches and what the change mean for the pace and running style. After grabbing a couple of scores back in the 80s with Chuckie Lopez on board horses with new-found speed, I threw it in my arsenal and it has paid some dividends over the years. I will bring out the angle in today’s Preakness and look to Max Player, and a predicted change in race tactics, to spark an upset. You see, this horse has been floundering in the back early in races and making one-run to close for a share. I think that running style changes today with Paco Lopez on board. The connections are clearly signaling they want to be more forwardly placed with this rider switch, as Paco is known for early aggressiveness. Look for Paco to hustle him out of the gate and secure a mid pack trip. The other key for this guy is a change in post position. Based on replays, and some trainer comments, it appears this guy doesn’t really like the kick back or the rail. So, I believe the post change to the outside will be a big help, as he will have the option to track from the outside. The last 3 races this horse was stuck on the inside, both in post position and running line. This horse has always had talent and I really liked his grinding win in the Withers. I picked him in the Belmont but avoided him in the Derby after the post draw. I think today is the day he makes a true account of his talent. Assuming the pace is hot and the favorites get tired late, he has a shot to spring the upset with an outside, and more forwardly placed trip. And, don’t be surprised, or scared, when the horse drifts up and we get closer to 15 or 18-1 as the closing odds.

2 – Swiss Skydiver – Number 4 (6-1)

This filly never runs a bad race and has shown the ability to rate, which will be a plus in today’s race. She ran a great race in the Oaks, but didn’t like the loss of ground and switch to the outside turning for home. In the Oaks, the stakes record was smashed and they ran the final three eighths in 36.16 (that’s fast). The competition she was facing was pretty tough as Gamine is one of the best horses in the country, male or female. While some will point to her pretty aggressive schedule as a down fall, I would disagree based on how historically patient her trainer has been over the years.  Look for the filly to be sitting in 2^nd flight and pounce on the leaders turning for home.  Could be a perfect trip and set up to hit the board, and with any luck, to steal victory from the boys. And, don’t be surprised if the price floats up as no one is picking her (this is a good sign).

3 – Mr. Big News – Number 2 (12-1)

Wasn’t a big fan of this guy heading into the Derby but he ran terrific, and made a nice eye-catching middle move to reach contention late, settling for 3^rd.  That kind of middle move is often an indicator of an improving horse and I can see him taking a step forward, especially with a faster pace in today’s Preakness. I also like the big improvement in both pace and speed figs in the Derby. The pace number improved by 21 and the speed fig by 18. The fast pace and set up really favors this guys closing kick. Overall, this horse could be a future star on the turf, but today, I can see him making some noise late and closing to hit the board at a decent price.

4- Authentic – Number 9 (9-5)

Got dream in Derby when two horses with early speed – Art Collector and King Guillermo – were late defections. He won’t get the same trip today as there is plenty of speed in here. I assume Johnny V will be on the lead with this guy but he may face an early challenge from Art Collector or even NY Traffic. Regardless, the pace will be quick and he could be candidate to hit the wall in the stretch after a very taxing Derby effort. Still, probably the most talented horse in the race and there is always a chance he duplicates his Derby effort if no one is running with him early in the race. Include defensively in trifectas and hope he gets some early pressure.

5 – Art Collector – Number 3 (5-2)

He was a late scratch in derby due to minor foot issue but by all accounts he is training well. Horse is loaded with talent and the biggest question will be whether he goes to the lead or cedes it to Authentic. Overall, he looks good on paper and has run some nice races, however, I think the races he is coming out of are a cut below this level of competition. The field in the blue grass was on the weak side. And, the two horses who ran 2^nd and 3^rd in the Ellis Park Derby flopped in Derby. So, I have to take a stand against but hope he makes his presence felt early to keep the race favorite honest. Last year I made a bold prediction to throw out the race favorite Improbable. And, I was right. I will make the same prediction this year for the likely 2^nd choice.

Other Contenders

Pneumatic – Number 11 (20-1)

He will be the wise guy horse as there is plenty of early steam and excitement based on his last win. I say — not so fast. He beat a really weak field in last and earned an inflated Beyer. The 2^nd place horse in the Pegasus will be one of the biggest longshots in this race.  Still, I love the talent of the horse, but just think he is a notch below and will have a full wagon of supporters to bring his odds down to 10-1 by post time.

NY Traffic – Number 7 (12-1)

For those that liked him in the derby, he could be a play back as he lost his shoe in the race. Best chance would be gunning for the lead and hoping for the best.

Thousand Words – Number 5 (6-1)

he other Baffert horse is a bit of an enigma and was a late scratch in the Derby because he flipped in the paddock. Kind of a wildcard for me and leaning against including in exotics, as you can’t play them all. Could also be overbet because of the trainer.

Wagering Strategy

Lets keep it simple

40 win on Max Player – Number 8

$2 Exacta box – 2-4-8 = $12

Mr. Big News, Swiss Skydiver, Max Player

$1 Tri box – 2-4-8-9 = $24

Adding Authentic to the 3 above

********Bonus Plays – The Black Eyed Susan – Race 10

I like Hopeful Growth to pull the upset in a blanket finish with the race favorite Bonny South. Both should get stalking trips. Will include Truth Hurts and Mizzen Beau in trifectas.

Win bet on 8

Ex box 5-8

Tri box – 2-5-7-8

Good Luck !!!

Whitey

So, the story-line is set for the 150th rendition of the Belmont Stakes, with 9 other rivals lined up to foil the plot and take down the Test of Champions.

Astute followers of this blog know Whitey has had a fair degree of success over the years in the Belmont, and 2017 was Whitey’s crowning achievement – taking down the super.

Re-live the 2017 Belmont bonanza magic, found here:

Tapwrit is Main Threat to Score Minor Upset in Wide Open 2017 Belmont

Since the race goes through Justify, let’s start our analysis with the race favorite.

Before getting into the details, let’s look at the keys for him to win. In my view, these 3 things will likely determine his fate:

1 – Will he face any pace pressure? In the Preakness he got a challenge from good magic but survived late on-rushers while “in-hand late”.

2 – Can he settle and relax? This is important because the horse typically runs 45 and change for splits and that won’t work in the longer Belmont. This was one of the factors that led to Smarty Jones’ demise.

3 – How will the gruel of the Triple Crown trail – 3rd race in 5 weeks, 6th race since mid-February – affect him? Many have come and many have failed. Why – because of the taxing nature of the race series and the demanding distance over a deeper race track. In short, a tired horse is up against it in the Belmont.

On point 3, the trainer says he looks great in training and there is no sign of fatigue. The bottom line is…. if he can relax, and set or sit off fractions of 48 and change and 113 for 3 QTR’s, and has no one pushing him or challenging him along the way, he is likely a winner. While the on-
track fans, and grandmas holding $2 win tickets will be happy, blog followers will be left with empty pockets and shattered dreams.

Since we will be playing against the favorite in the win column, let’s look at some key points and analyze additional factors that may impact the favorite.

Racing Luck
Some weird stuff happens in the Belmont, and sometimes fate is the by-product of racing luck. We all remember (and treasure) the 2014 post race rant by the owner of California Chrome, when he said — “they are all Cowards”. What the D-bag didn’t know was Callie lost a shoe during the race, which helped to thwart his TC bid.

In 2004, jockey error, and jockey collusion – along with a keyed-up Smarty wanting to run – led to his stretch collapse, yielding to 36-1 Birdstone.

In 1997, another Jockey error, and a move way to soon, cost Real Quiet the TC when Victory Gallop ran him down to win by a nose.

In 2011, race favorite Animal Kingdom lost all chance at the start, when he stumbled badly and nearly through the jockey off, while losing the iron.

Talent
No doubt Justify is loaded with raw talent. But, in my view, there is a reason why only 12 horses have captured the triple crown – one in the last 39 years. To me, a runner must be ELITE and not just very talented or great in order to take the TC. A lot of great horses failed in the 3rd leg, and that list is long. Obviously, the question of great vs elite will be answered on Saturday. I view the Belmont as a Test of Greatness, and if the horse passes the test and comes out victorious, he instantly becomes an elite horse.

Distance Breeding
Does Justify have the breeding to get the distance? And if not, does he have the will, heart and determination to overcome his pedigree limitations?

His pedigree is very questionable for the distance as his sire Scat Daddy excelled at middle distances, but he does have stamina influence on dam side, namely AP Indy and Awesome Again. On the eye test – Whitey says no on the distance test, and he will need to be carried to the wire by heart and determination (this is an intangible we don’t quite know yet)

The Competition
Each 3yo crop may vary significantly from year to year, and this could factor into TC success rate. We will look at this year’s field below, but in general, the 2018 crop is marginal at best, which favors well for Justify (there are no world-beaters lying in the weeds and the 2018 Preakness field was one of the worst in years).

Breaking Down the Field —Race analysis

How does Whitey cap the Belmont? First of all, I am a student of Belmont history. I watch Belmont race replays like people binge on Netflix. It is actually pretty cool to re-live history, especially the TC winning moments.

My two main evaluation criteria in capping the Belmont:

Talent/recent form – lightly raced horses who are rested and improving are preferred, along with horses who have flashed big race ability, or who are highly regarded by their connections.

Pedigree – This is a unique race because of the 1.5 mile distance, and is one of the main reasons why a horse who should win, doesn’t — Rarely does a horse win if he is not bred to get the distance via his lineage. Over the years, I have become a pedigree geek and do about whole days worth of study, analysis and speculation on the field’s distance pedigree.

Additional Criteria:

Race set-up – typically, I will look at how the race should unfold on paper when comparing running styles of the entrants. Projecting here is often key, as the slower pace in the Belmont may cause more “bunching” than in a normal race, and it will usually favor the stalking grinder, instead of the one-run closer.

Rest – There is a reason why fresh horses, especially those going from the Derby to Belmont, have fared well over the years. 3 races in 5 weeks is not the ideal way to come into s distance-demanding race, over a more tiring surface.

Other Intangibles – Weather, Trainers, etc

Race-Day Forecast

Can we get a dry track this year?
From Accuweather as of Thursday:

A storm seems destined to bring rain to Belmont Park, New York, to complete a soggy third leg of the 2018 Triple Crown. However, a rainy Belmont Stakes is not set in stone.
This type of weather pattern, which involves thunderstorm complexes, has the potential to bring drenching downpours and urban flooding.
“There may be a sharp edge to the rain,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Dean DeVore.
“The New York City area, including Elmont, will be near that northern edge.”
Dry weather is expected for much up upstate New York and New England, while flooding downpours may occur in the Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., areas.
Ultimately, the exact track of the batch of showers and thunderstorms will determine the northern extent of the rain on Saturday. There is still a chance the rain slides by to the south or shows up after the big race.
Both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness were run in the mud and the rain in 2018. The 2018 Kentucky Derby was the wettest on record with more than 3 inches of rain. Rain fell every day for a week leading up to and including the Preakness at Pimlico in Baltimore

Say What?

So, basically, you want me to handicap a race in advance and I have no idea what the track condition will be?

Whitey Update on weather – I think we will have a fast track based on the updated forecast. The storm should stay south and impact the philly area instead of NY.

Without further delay, let’s analyze this year’s field, in post position order with ML odds:

1 – Justify – 4-5 – Analysis above. Three scenarios for this guy — Wins easy and looks like an elite triple crown runner or runs a big race but tires in late stages and hits the board, or hits a wall at the top of the stretch and flounders as an also ran. Whitey is hoping for the middle scenario as I will be playing him to be “in the mix” for all exotics. Detractors will say he was getting tired late in the Preakness. Some would say the jockey was playing possum and saving gas in the tank. In my view, horse moves way up on a fast track and an off track would be at a disadvantage based on his declining beyers in the mud, and the fact that an off track is more taxing on an animal than a fast track.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Key to victory is getting him out of gate and somehow finding a way to get to the outside of any horse on the lead and not get pinned down on the rail. The 1 post is not ideal for his outside stalking style and jockey tactics will be key. Bottom line is if he is able to sit off the speed and float outside and relax, he will be tough. If he is pinned to the inside of horses early and facing pace pressure, win bettors should be nervous.

2 – Free Drop Billy – 30-1 – Skipped Preakness and connections are making statements that hitting the board is their goal. He flopped in the mud in the Derby and seems to have regressed some in his 3yo season. Love the breeding on this guy by a sire who won the Belmont in Union Rags and stamina on bottom with Giants Causeway. Seems to be training well since the derby flop, and this is a longshot that can spice up the trifecta and supers if he can find the class of his bloodlines and regain some of his 2yo form. Hated the off track in the derby but ran over a muddy serface before and the wet pedigree is actually very good. Whitey’s superfecta sleeper.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Has been showing improved speed in the workouts which lead me to believe he will be more forwardly placed. Expect him to be mid pack and saving ground on the rail on the first turn. Best case scenario is a fast pace and he passes tired horses late for a minor slice, perhaps clunking up for 4th.

3 – Bravazo – 8-1 – Terrible ML set on this guy as he will go off as co 2nd choice at around 6-1. He moves up on a wet track but may not get it. Also rans in the derby and Preakness have shaky record in the Belmont and overall, I am leaning against, as I felt the Preakness late run was more a by-product of exhausted leaders tiring, rather than a fast closing horse. While he may have some stamina from Awesome again on sire side he does not have much distance pedigree on bottom. If you throw in that he will be bet heavily with the negatives mentioned, especially on pedigree, and short-rest, he is a play-against.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
There is speculation that he may challenge Justify early. While that would not be good for the favorite, it would certainly lead to his demise as well. He is best stalking and will pray for rain.

4 – Hofburg – 9-2 – Connections took a shot in the Derby, but probably would have been better off in the Peter Pan as a Belmont prep. Had tons of traffic trouble in the Derby, as he had to steady on the turn twice and couldn’t get rolling until late. Likely to be a wise guy horse on that reason alone. On review of the Derby replay, I did notice that he galloped out past the wire with lots of energy, even passing the many runners who finished in front of him. Pedigree-wise he is by Tapit, a sire on fire in the Belmont, as he saddled 3 of the 4 past Belmont winners. Has plenty of stamina on dam side, with Touch Gold and AP Indy. He is a lightly raced colt who skipped the Preakness and is bred for the distance. Naturally, this guy is a contender in my view.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
To me, the key is showing more speed early and settling mid-pack instead of falling to the back of field. He did this in his maiden win, racing in a stalking mid-pack position. If you have a win bet on this guy and he is last at the half way point, you are sunk. Look for him to save ground around the first turn and make a move late to try and run down the front-runners.

5 – Restoring Hope – 30-1 – Likely entered as a rabbit by his trainer to give Justify a target. His credentials are shaky at best and his only hope is a front running, slow paced Belmont where he may be able to hang around late for a share. Breeding is very good for the Belmont, with Giant’s Causeway and Tapit in his pedigree.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
As mentioned, he is one of the likely pace setters to give the favorite a target. If he is by himself and Noble Indy doesn’t break well, he could give backers a thrill late.

6 – Gronkowski – 12-1 – Likely to be overbet in the Belmont based on name sake connections (the real Gronk). Positives include his savvy trainer and his unknown commodity status on dirt. He missed the Derby due to illness but seems to be training well for his new connections. On the downside, his pedigree is highly questionable for the distance as, his sire Lohnro was a more of miler type, and excelled on turf. For Gronk or patriot fans only.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
More a stalker-type, which is a well suited style for the Bemont

7 – Tenfold – 12-1 – Ran a decent 3rd in the Preakness, but tough to tell if his race was the by product of a wet track or he has improved since his early 3yo campaign. He didn’t change leads in the Preakness and they may have cost him late. What I really like about this horse is…..HIS BREEDING !!!! He has the best pedigree in the field for the Belmont distance — are you kidding me – wow. Curlin on the top side, which is stamina. And, it only gets better on dam side — by a daughter of Tapit. And also has stamina laden and brilliance of Giants Causeway on female side. He is lightly raced and seems to be improving, and most of all, offers some degree of value based on the odds. Only question is – is he a Travers horse and late developing sort? Or is today the day?

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Trainer was not pleased with tardy beginning in Preakness so I am guessing he will be a stalking type here, and closer to the pace, sitting just to the outside of Justify. A grinding, well-bred for the distance stalker type is always dangerous in the Belmont. Can you say Tonalist and Palace Malice?

8 – Vino Rosso – 8-1 – Have always been high on this horse and considered him a great Belmont contender from day 1 based on his pedigree profile. Was a major flop in the Derby slop. Trainer has a way of getting his horses to peak in the Belmont and is well rested after skipping the Preakness. Has great pedigree for the distance by Curlin, with dam-side pedigree in Touch Gold and Lear Fan, both stamina laden influences. To me, the big question is — how talented is he? He won the Wood taking advantage of an outside bias, but the field that day was weak and the 2nd place finisher, Enticed, also flopped in the Derby. Can see him running on late for a minor share.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Seems to be a late running sort and the only time he ran really well was when he got an extremely fast pace in the Wood. Trainer entered stablemate Noble Indy in an effort to soften the front runners to set it up it for him. Winstar did the same thing two years ago entering rabbit Gettysburg to set it up for Creator, and that paid handsome dividends (screwing Whitey’s pick Destin, who lost by a nose). The outside post is a major plus for him though, so the draw was favorable.

9 – Noble Indy – 30-1 – Getting this kind of number on a Pletcher trained horse is very inviting. Trainer made it clear on intent – he will be on the lead, and says that tactic is his best chance to win. Problem is, Justify is in the race and he would need something wacky to happen early in race from Justify in order to have a shot. Overall, he was another that flopped in the Derby and takes Derby to Belmont route. While he has AP Indy in bloodline, the rest of his pedigree is marginal for the Belmont distance.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Likely going to the lead and will try to steal it or soften up Justify.

10 – Blended Citizen – 15-1 – Another classic example of a terrible ML. Likely will go off at 8 or 10-1. Will likely be somewhat overbet on what looks to be a deceiving performance in the Peter Pan. The problem for me is that he got an ideal set up in that race, sitting off a very fast pace, which was contentious – it was a dream trip. Now he stretches out and gets a slower pace, which is not an ideal combination. Also, the field he beat was highly suspect. Pedigree-wise, nothing really excites me here and is sprint heavy on dam side. Add it all up, and he is a toss for me and I am taking a stand against (which scares me a little because some sharp cappers are on him.)

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
He is a stalker, mid-pack closer and will likely be a little closer to the lead today. If he had a better pedigree I might be intrigued, but seems he will be compromised by a tougher field and slower pace today.

Race Lens

Let’s take a look at Whitey’s view on how things might shake out.

Getting some vibes that the other trainers aren’t going to let Justify do his thing, and get comfortable so maybe there will some shenanigans early. So, gut feel, I will say the pace is a little faster than most expect and I don’t have full confidence that Justify can get outside (though he might). I see restoring hope and noble indy out early with Justify sitting in 3rd rounding the first turn.

Here is the key to the race for non Justify backers – nearing the final turn someone has to make noise and force Justify move a little earlier than he wants to – you see – Justify can’t be passed on the far turn – if he is – well likely, he is toast. So, another horse has to force the hand of the Justify’s jockey perhaps sometime heading into the last turn and with it, we get extra energy expended earlier than he wants, and with that scenario, it opens it up for the closers. Hofburg seems best to capitalize on this scenario, as he has the most talent, and will have the best late kick of any horse to grind down the leaders late. Question is – who will force the hand? Two likely candidates are Blended Citizen and Tenfold, maybe even Gronk. Jose Ortiz rides Gronk – and his brother is on Hofburg (conspiracy?). My guess is it will be Tenfold. He will be the closest pursuer. The fate of our tickets is in the Jockey of Tenfold’s hands.

If no one forces Justify hand – what happens – well, that is called the Catbird Seat, and basically the Jockey can wait as long as he wants cause he knows he has the front runners pegged, and he can wait and wait and wait to make his move towards the finish. In which case, more than likely Justify goes on to win cause he is the most talented in field by far and a relaxed trip or journey is his best chance to overcome pedigree limitations.

So these are the two likeliest scenarios:

Scenario 1 – its Tenfold and Justify going at it around the turn and entering the stretch with Justify pulling away but the battle may be won by Justify, the war is lost, as General Hofburg comes rolling late and beats Justify by 2 lengths, with Tenfold a close third, and Vino Rosso or Free Drop Billy clunking up for a distant 4th. This is the scenario we will bet, and stake the lions-share of the bank-roll on.

Scenario 2 – Justify pounces on command later than he needs to and pulls away from the field, leaving only the closers to clunk up for a piece of the minor awards.

Picks

Horse – 4 Hofburg – My top pick needs a lot to go his way to steal a win here including getting a pace to set up his late run, and will need some help from his friends to pressure Justify. I am banking on a mid pack trip and a move on the turn, and a sustained rally to wear down the leaders late. His trainer echoed similar thoughts:

If Hofburg is going to win, Mott said the late-running colt has to be within 2-to-3 lengths of the lead for the final quarter mile. It also would help if some of the others in the field of 10 forced Justify to run an honest early pace.
Good Magic did that in the Preakness and Mike Smith, the jockey of Justify, felt Bravazo and Tenfold closing at the wire.

A son of Tapit is bred to run all day and I am very high on the talent and promise, and a trainer who can have him ready for a peak performance. ML oddsmakers really screwed up in making him a solid 2nd choice. Gut feel he floats up to 5 or 6 to 1, and we get more value here than most would expect.

1 Horse – Justify – The one to beat. This horse is something special, no doubt, and the most talented horse in the field and deserving favorite. Trip, and ability to handle the distance will likely determine if he is destined for induction into racing history.

7 Horse – Tenfold – The best breeding for the Belmont distance, he should get a great trip stationed on the hip of Justify. The late developing colt could be primed for a big effort and hails from a barn that knows how to win the Belmont. And, if by chance Justify falters, he could even challenge for the win slot, and hold off the closers.

8 Horse – Vino Rosso – Has great late pace figures which is always coveted at the Belmont, and his trainer is awesome in this race. On a dry track, could possibly move up a spot or two, but would need a pretty hot pace to set up his late kick. Leaning towards tossing the Derby, as it was reported that he took a clump of mud to his eye and it may have impacted his performance. Overall, well bred and suited for the distance, he should be rolling late with a good chance to hit the tri or super.

Super Sleeper
Whitey’s Superfecta sleeper is Free Drop Billy – 2 horse. It kind of feels like he is sitting on a late run to pick up the pieces, and possibly hit the super. Talent has always been there, and the added distance in the Belmont will work in his favor, based on the stellar breeding.

Wagering Strategy

We will keep it simple

Win Bets
$40 win 4
$10 win 7 (saver bet)

Exacta Bets
$2 Ex box 4-7-8 = $12
In case Justify Falters, should pay decent

Trifecta Bets
$2 Tri box – 1-4-7 = $12
$2 Tri box 1-4-8 = $12
$5 Tri Straight – 4 with 1 with 2-7-8 = $15

Superfecta
$1 super box – 1-4-7-8 = $24
$1 super key – 1 with 2-4-7-8 with same with same = $24
$2 Super – 1 with 4 with 2-7-8 with 2-7-8 = $12
Last 2 bets are protection in the Justify win scenario, so we get coverage on back end with the horses preferred, and should pay decent

Good Luck to all !!!!

This will be my first prep race rendition for this blog as I haven’t posted any prep races in the past.

Tampa Bay Downs Derby is on the docket today

There are two main scratches for the race – Free Drop Billy and Enticed will run in the Gotham, and skip this race. These were 2 contenders so expect our prices to be deflated from ML.

Here are my selections:

8 Horse – World of Trouble – 5-1
This horse absolutely jogged n his 7F prep race for this, and could have easily smashed a track record but the jockey pulled him up 100 yards from the wire. While there are a couple of concerns with this guy in meeting a field like this and potentially getting caught in a speed duel, on raw talent alone this guy is a standout. And, I have no concerns about this horse trying two turns for first time.

3 Horse – Vino Rosso – 4-1
Pletcher puts blinkers on today and has a race under his belt at Tampa, which is often key to this winning race. Get your notebook out on this one – he is my early Belmont pick !!!. Has the stamina to get the distance and fits the pattern of the trainers previous winners of that race. Today however, he should get the best trip, stalking a hot pace, and getting first run on the closers. I see this as a two horse race with VINO and the 8 horse dueling to the wire.

9 horse – Untamed Domain – 6-1
Tries dirt for first time and is not short on talent. Trainer does well at this track when shipping in and I can envision hm closing for a share.

2 Horse – Tiz Mischief – 8-1
This is more a running style play as he likely will be closing for a slice of the trifecta or superfecta. Trainer won the Fountain of Youth last week and I am a big fan of the sire. Also, like his two turn experience and ran well in the Gold Cup as 2 yo.

10 – horse – Quip – 20-1
This would be my long shot play to hit the board. What the jockey does on this one could impact the race and if he is guns blazing on lead it will be to his detriment.

Ex Box for top 2 – 8-3

And then you can throw in a super with ticket structured like this:

8-3/8-3/ 2-9-10/2-9-10
Good Luck all

Look for chalk later in the day.

But the matter at hand for Whitey is the Classic !!

Lets take some of the Belmont Super winnings and parlay into another score.

My top picks

1 – Arrogate – This horse is amazing one of the greatest of all time. Yes, he threw in a few clunkers recently but there is no denying that if he brings his game he will be tough to beat.

9 – Gunnevera – He will be pace dependent meaning if he gets no pace he has no chance, but I have liked this horse since his early 3yo campaign and I like the rest he was given. This was a tired horse after the triple crown and now I think he is sitting on a peak performance coming into this. Is he good enough to win — I dont know but at these odds its a good value play. Include in all exotics.

8-11 West Coast and Collected – – I am putting the two Baffert runners for 3rd – whoever gets the lead likely hangs on for third and the only people who know which horse will be on the lead are the 2 jockeys and Baffert. So I will be playing both for 3rd. There is about a 25% chance that whoever gets the lead will wire the field but you cant play every scenario, so we will just hope that Gun Runner will challenge one of these at some point and set it up for my top 2.

Win bet – 9

Exacta Box – 1-9

Trafecta
1 with 9 with 8-11

Superfecta
1 with 9 with 8-11 with all

Ponycapper followers know that this race is circled on the calendar as the marquee handicapping jewel for the blog author, and we will look to make amends for the brutal beat in last years rendition.

The race storylines

Non Starter
Classic Empire – the presumptive race favorite – was a late non entry, making this running a wide open affair. I was actually disappointed to hear the news as I was playing against this one based on the rugged schedule, as this would have been his 4th race in 8 weeks, which is a recipe for disaster. In addition, the horse was not really bred for the Belmont distance, and I was counting on the favorite to flop. In any event, we will press on, take it in stride, and deal with the odds on the remaining runners.

Japan Invader
The Japan invader Epicharis is a fresh face in the mix, and is receiving a lot of buzz. He has raced 5 times and won 4, losing his last by a nose. He is installed as the 2nd choice, but reports of lameness in his leg leave some doubt as to whether he will make the starting gate. They are treating the leg with medication and the trainer thinks he may go, but obviously this is not a good development.

Morning Line Assessment
One thing is certain – THIS IS A WIDE OPEN BETTING RACE with the likely favorite going off at around 4-1. Overall, the track handicapper did a decent job on the ML odds, with the only exceptions being the Number 1 horse – Twisted Tom. NY betters love Chad Brown and the same trainer and jockey just took down the Preakness so your likely price….perhaps 10 or 12-1. The other line that looks off is the ML on Senior Investment – You are not getting 12-1 on this horse – 8 to 1 is more likely. And the other consideration is the late breaking news on the 11 Epicharis – His odds will be sure to go up on the news that his leg is not 100%.

Belmont Trends
Horses that have run in the Derby and skip the Preakness have been running well in the Belmont over the last 10 years. Favorites have been 3 for the last 19 in the Belmont. Dead closers typically don’t fare well, which is contradictory to how most think in that the longer distance will help them. But, actually, the slower pace hurts their running style in the Belmont. Horses sired by Tapit have done well in recent years – Creator and Tonalist won, Destin and Frosted came in 2nd. Todd Pletcher has won 2 Belmont’s but actually had some tough luck as well, most notably, Destin was nosed out last year, when he looked like a winner 100 yards out.

Here is Ponycapper’s analysis of the field:
1 – Twisted Tom – 20-1 – Connections upset Preakness field so likely 20-1 turns into 12-1 if you like him. He is taking a big step up in class, but in a field lacking solid quality, the connections decided to put up the 75K supplemental fee to take a crack at an upset. Has low dosage and is one of the ones who should have no problem with the distance. Races he exits were small and weak, and on form alone I will be tossing for the win spot. Pedigree could carry him to a superfecta 4th place finish.

2 – Tapwrit – 6-1 – Surprisingly no one is really talking about him and may be flying under the radar. His 6th place finish in the Derby was better than it looked as he all kinds of issues with traffic and bumping. Trainer has done well with horses skipping the Preakness and pointing at Belmont, so one must respect this one, even if the form looks off. Contrary to what most think about his breeding on Dam side, he has tons of stamina, with distance influencers such as Hawkster and Seattle Slew buried in there. And of course, his Sire Tapit is on fire – he produced two Belmont winners in the last 3 years. Main Contender.

3 – Gormley – 8-1 – Another Derby horse who comes in fresh for the Belmont. His Santa Anita derby didn’t impress me much and was playing against in Derby. Still, he does have a few things going for him, namely a good pedigree for the distance and the very strong pace numbers in all of his races. Very much has the look of a grinder and has versatility to be on or near the lead. Was wide in the Derby against the rail bias and he seems to alternate running big in races. Mixed feelings on this one and will probably use defensively underneath.

4 – J Boys Echo – 15-1 – Getting sense he may be wise guy horse as everyone is pointing to his win over cloud computing in the Gotham. And, he did have trouble in the Derby. To me, this horse is a complete wildcard, who is capable of running a huge race, but for the most part seems a cut below the field. May use defensively underneath in event he runs a big one.

5 – Hollywood Handsome – 30- 1 – Trainer knows how to get a bomb in the exacta in triple crown races, however this one may be a stretch, as he steps way up in class and distance may be an issue.

6 – Lookin at Lee – 5-1 – This will be his 4th race in 8 weeks and closing style doesn’t really suit a typical Belmont winner. Took advantage of fast pace to close well in Preakness. His Under-layed odds today are also not attractive for me. He can clunk up for 3rd or 4th at best.

7 – Irish War Cry – 7-2 – Flopped in the Derby and the race looks to be too bad to believe. He does have an advantage of tactical speed and can stalk as well. The lack of early pace in the race will definitely help his chances. Key for him is letting the 9 horse go to the front. If the 9 is pressing him from the outside it will lead to his demise. Jockey in-game race decision will be key for him. He would also benefit from an Epicharis defection. (check if the 11 scratches). Sired by Curlin, has the stamina on top side and he produced 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice.

8 – Senior Investment – 12-1 – Was fast closing horse in the Preakness and seems to be improving. Has same running style as Lookin at Lee, but I am against the deep closers in the Belmont, though his odds offer a bit more value than the 6 horse.

9 – Meantime – 15-1- Should be the pace setter in the race and is very lightly raced. If the race was a mile and an eighth I would probably be playing as he could be lone speed, setting easy fractions. The issue with this guy is the pedigree, as he likely will fold in the stretch based on the likely distance limitations. He would move up on a wet track so if a late day storm rolls through, it may be wise to throw him in underneath. Talented horse will improve as the year progresses. Tabbing for later.

10 – Multiplier – 15-1 – Everyone is talking about his troubled trip in the Preakness but I watched the replay several times and didn’t see much. Adds blinkers for the Belmont, but has pedigree issues as well. Horse he beat in the Illinois Derby came back to flop on the Preakness undercard so one has to question that big effort.

11 – Epicharis – 4-1 – As mentioned, his odds will float up due to the foot issue. Japan will be sending in $40 million in a separate betting pool so interest will be high oversees. One thing to like on this one is the strong distance pedigree. Horse has not beaten much overseas so its tough to gauge overall talent level. That and the foot issue make him a complete Belmont wildcard.

12 – Patch – 12-1 – The one eyed horse gets the outside post again so he won’t be able to see his competitors to his inside. Had hidden trouble in the Derby and was wide against bias. Love the breeding here with stamina on both sides and is trained by aforementioned Pletcher. Sleeper to hit the board and if things break his way, pull the upset.

Picks:
2 Horse – My top pick is Tapwrit. I love the breeding and the trainer does well in the Belmont (Stay Thirsty, Commissioner, Palice Malice, Destin). I liked him going into the Derby and he had plenty of excuses that day, Should get nice trip saving ground from inside on the wide sweeping turns. Son of Tapit and all that stamina on Dam side indicate this one should appreciate the added distance.

7 Horse – My 2nd choice is Irish War Cry, the likely race favorite come post time. On his best day, horse is monster – but you can make a case as to which horse shows up today? The Derby flop was too bad for me to believe and the 5 weeks off should be beneficial. Jockey needs to let him stalk instead of getting pressed. Turning for home, he should he taking the lead but the question is – can he hold on? Could be this years Destin as he may get tired in final stages. Must use in exotics.

12 Horse – For 3rd, I will go with Patch. Horse was way overbet in the Derby taking a lot of sentimental money, so maybe the value goes down today as well. Going into the Derby I did say that the Derby was nothing more of a prep for this guy. And, he should move forward with a dry track and extra distance. Overall, he has a nice Belmont profile. Derby runner skipping the Preakness, lightly raced, and breeding to love the distance. Mid pack running style will be an advantage as well and gets a major jockey upgrade. There is value in a saver win bet as his odds should be north of 10-1, and honestly, the trainer knows how to get a horse ready for the Belmont.

3 Horse – For 4th, I don’t really have a strong opinion but will lean towards Gormley based on the analysis points mentioned. But again, it’s a wide open race and realistically you can make a case for half the field to possibly run 4th. Others to consider for this slot, J Boys Echo, Twisted Tom, and of course the two strong closers, Lookin at Lee and Senior Investment, could easily clunk up to round out the superfecta.

Win – Tapwrit
Saver win – Patch
Exacta Box – 2-7-12
Exacta Box – 2-3-12

Good Luck