Wager type – Value Play

Track – Aqueduct

Race Number – 9

Horse Name – Wise Guide

Horse Number – 7

Morning Line – 12-1

Condition – MSW

Rationale/ Key to race – Had brutal trip in debut and raced wide vs an inside bias last out. Will improve today and may find winners circle at price.

Angle 1 – Raced vs bias last out

Angle 2 – Took inside money in debut

Angle 3 –

Angle 4

Favorite Vulnerability angle – The 2 will be the favorite and has never gone 2 turns

Wagers

Win bet amount – – $20 win 7

Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $2 exacta box 2-7-9

Total wagered – $32

Wager type – Spot Play

Track – Gulfstream

Race Number – 9

Horse Name – Dixie Hot Shot

Horse Number – 2

Morning Line – 6-1

Condition – MSW

Rationale/ Key to race – Is only speed in the race and faces a bunches of firsters who come from barns not known for firing first out. The main danger is the 8, who has been away but the horse he lost to in debut has made noise in stakes races.

Angle 1 – Lone Speed

Angle 2 – Best pace numbers

Angle 3 – Best combined pace number and speed figure

Angle 4

Wagers

Win bet amount – – $15 win 2

Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $5 exacta box 2-8

Total wagered – $25

Wager type – Spot Play

Track – Oaklawn

Race Number – 9

Horse Name – Nolan’s Revenge

Horse Number – 2

Morning Line – 20-1

Condition – 7500 time restricted

Rationale/ Key to race – Is only speed in the race and drops from an open claimer. Has won at Oaklawn  before.

Angle 1 – Lone speed

Angle 2 – Drop in class and best pace figures

Angle 3 –

Angle 4

Favorite Vulnerability angle –

Wagers

Win bet amount – – $15 win 2

Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $2 exacta box 2-4-9

Total wagered – $27

Selection 1 – Jan 2

Wager type – Value Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 3
Horse Name – Unseen Glory
Horse Number – 4
Morning Line – 8-1
Condition – 8K NW3L

Result- 2nd
Off odds – 5-1

Re-cap – the favorite (7) was allowed to run uncontested on slow pace and won

Lessons Learned –

• When the pace scenario is not in your favor, it’s best to look for another spot.
• Horses can win first over tampa but it is rare and is a money burning proposition – horses most always over the surface and should not be backed unless there is value

Exotic Notes – My 6 ran a nice 3rd at price

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $20 win 4
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $5 exacta box 4-6
Total wagered – $30
Total won (lost) – (30)

****

Selection 2 – January 2
Wager type – Longshot Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 7
Horse Name – All Thrill
Horse Number – 2
Morning Line – 20-1
Condition – Mdn 25 Turf

Result- 3rd
Off odds – 43-1

Re-cap – My horse set the pace and was looking to pull of a shocker only to get tired about 50 yards out and wound up a nice third as a bomb.

Lessons Learned –

• Upgrade Sire Gulf Storm on the turf. The son of Storm Cat may produce bombs on the turf as he has Alydar and Northern Dancer on Dam side.
• Upgrade Ken Manness on turf as he can get the bombs first turf.
• As I predicted, the Sheppard layoff horse ran off the board as 2^nd choice.
• Layoff horses are the worst bets in racing.

Win bet amount – – $15 win 2
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $1 exacta box 1-2-3, $5 exacta box 2-10
Total wagered – $31
Total won (lost) – (31)
*****

Selection 3 – January 2
Wager type – Spot Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 8
Horse Name – Put to the Test
Horse Number – 1
Morning Line – 15-1
Condition – Allow opt claim

Result – Off the board
Off odds – 7-1

Re-cap – My horse never made the lead. The jockey let a euro shipper take command early and he almost stole it. Once the horse never made the lead he was toast as he is a need the lead type

Lessons Learned –

• Downgrade pedro cotto as send jockey. That was terrible.
• Just because you handicap a race shape doesn’t mean it will pan out as jockeys play an integral role in how the race shape unfolds.
• These type of tough allowance races are difficult to predict.
• When the betting public jumps on a horse often it’s a bad signal
• Need the lead horses may not offer value

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $10 win 2
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $5 exacta box 2-9. $1 Trifecta key 9 over the 1-2-3
Total wagered – $26
Total won (lost) – (26)

****
Selection 4 – January 4th
Wager type – Spot Play
Track – Golden Gate
Race Number – 6
Horse Name – Trapper’s Reward
Horse Number – 8
Morning Line – 4-1
Condition – Open 4k

Result – 1st
Off odds – 2-1

Re-cap – The horse was hammered in wagering as he was actually dropping in class into time restricted claimer from open company. Horse won giving Whitey his first PE winner.

Lessons Learned –

• Stable Notes are key.
• Trouble trip angle is money.

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $20 win 8
Exacta, Trifecta wagers –
Total wagered – $20
Total won (lost) – 40

****
Selection 5 – January 4th
Wager type – Longshot Play
Track – Fair Grounds
Race Number – 10
Horse Name – Ty’s Bandit
Horse Number – 3
Morning Line – 20-1
Condition – Mdn 10

Result – Mid Pack
Off odds – 44-1

Re-cap – had a troubled beginning but not sure how much that impacted result

Lessons Learned –

• Stable Notes was a loser
• Inside money angle on Mouton FTS horse not a good predictor 2^nd out
• Got good value on a live longshot. Didn’t pan out.
• Still love the 2^nd time starter angle as it’s a great longshot angle
• You cash less tickets but when you hit it should be a price – look for value.

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $15 win 3
Exacta, Trifecta wagers –
Total wagered – $15
Total won (lost) – (15)

Total Loss for week – $62
New Bankroll Balance – $938

Wager type – Spot Play
Track – Golden Gate
Race Number – 6
Horse Name – Trapper’s Reward
Horse Number – 8
Morning Line – 4-1
Condition – Open 4k

Rationale/ Key to race – Horse raced vs the bias at Hollywood and then shipped to GG and had a troubled trip, whereby he had no room most of race and finally rallied when clear but it was too late.
Angle 1 – Troubled trip last out
Angle 2 – Raced vs bias 2 back and that was a toss – horses on inside that day had no chance
Angle 3 – Multiple winner on GG circuit so horse for course
Angle 4

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $20 win 8
Exacta, Trifecta wagers –
Total wagered – $20

Wager type – Longshot Play
Track – Fair Grounds
Race Number – 10
Horse Name – Ty’s Bandit
Horse Number – 3
Morning Line – 20-1
Condition – Mdn 10

Rationale/ Key to race – This is a pure 2nd time starter play, an angle for me that has been profitable over the years.
Angle 1 – Took inside money in debut – opened at 8-1 and drifted to over 30-1 final
Angle 2 – By sire Time Bandit who is very underrated and produces many first out winners
Angle 3 – was off slow in debut which compromised his chances

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $15 win 3
Exacta, Trifecta wagers –
Total wagered – $15

Wager type – Value Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 3
Horse Name – Unseen Glory
Horse Number – 4
Morning Line – 8-1
Condition – 8K NW3L

Rationale/ Key to race _ Horse has shown ability at Tampa previously and in those starts he was bet down to under 3-1 and so 8-1 is a gift here, and hoping to get 5-1 off odds

Angle 1 – 2nd off layoff. Had a prep at GP and should move forward
Angle 2 – Horses who he lost to at Tampa have come back and won multiple starts
Angle 3 – Has a good record at Tampa, with 7 in the money in 12 tries
Angle 4
Negative notes – The pace may work against him as there is not much speed in race and he likes to close. The jockey will need to place him more forwardly.
Favorite Vulnerability angle – The favorite is the 7 With Class. This horse is making his 2nd lifetime start at tampa and flopped in first try, which was in 2011. He has no recent races and fitness is a concern. Horses making starts at tampa need to be fit. Favoirtes during December have bitten the dust on many occasions who fit this pattern: Shipping in from Delaware, no recent race at tampa, hasn’t raced in last 3 months (September in this case). Also, the trainer Pecoraro does not typically have them cranked first at tampa. He excels 2nd over tampa. Also, in last 13 attempts at layoff of 61-180 days trainer is 0 for 13.

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $20 win 4
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $5 exacta box 4-6
Total wagered – $30

Wager type – Longshot Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 7
Horse Name – All Thrill
Horse Number – 2
Morning Line – 20-1
Condition – Mdn 25 Turf

Rationale/ Key to race – This is a wide open bottom maiden turf race with a vulnerable favorite. Lets take a shot on a first turfer who is bred for turf at a big price.

Angle 1 – great turf breeding by son of storm cat
Angle 2 – In last year, Trainer shows a 15% win rate and a ROI of $7.22
Angle 3 – Jockey and trainer are 1 for 1 at meet.
Angle 4
Negative notes – There are a couple other longshot horses – the 3 and 1 who have equally good breeding and could spoil the party.
Favorite Vulnerability angle – The favorite is the 10 Rolling Rate, 2-1. A Sheppard horse who hasn’t raced in a year. Layoff horses are the worst favorites in racing. In his only turf race in July of 2011, he finished 3rd to a nice stakes horse named Nerfertini.

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $15 win 2
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $1 exacta box 1-2-3, $5 exacta box 2-10
Total wagered – $31

Wager type – Spot Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 8
Horse Name – Put to the Test
Horse Number – 1
Morning Line – 15-1
Condition – Allow opt claim

Rationale/ Key to race – There is no speed in the race except my selection. Could be a wire job.
Angle 1 – Lone speed and class of field
Angle 2 – Best pace numbers and class
Angle 3 – Trainer turf to dirt 29% last year
Angle 4
Negative notes – Very tough field. Anything is possible
Favorite Vulnerability angle –

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $10 win 2
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $5 exacta box 2-9. $1 Trifecta key 9 over the 1-2-3
Total wagered – $26

With the dawning of 2013, I have decided to devote this blog to making money on the ponies. In 2011 a similar attempt was made but it blew up when the Degenerate Fund went bankrupt after about 6 months. The fund did turn a profit but upon reflection, it was quite obvious that the handicapping was not up to par to sustain profitability. Basically, the fund made money form a few longshots and big exacta payoffs from the 2011 Belmont. Once those big payouts dried up, the fund was doomed, and hence profits and available bankroll dissipated and the fund dissolved.

I’ve had a chance to reflect on what went wrong, and have documented all the lessons learned. In addition, over the course of the last few months I have built an arsenal of capping angles, and have formulated a more structured approach to each racing circuit. These things should serve me well as the Ponycapper Experiment will look to avoid the same pitfalls experienced in 2011.

Here is a snapshot of the Ponycapper experiment, including objectives, goals, strategy, and success factors.

Objective
An online blog dedicated to making profits and improving handicapping arsenal.

Goals
It would be difficult to come up with a profitability number per year given the volatility expected for the ponycapper account. If we are still operational after year 1, and showing a profit, that would be great. By Year 2 and 3 I would like to be showing a profit. 10K profit in 3 years would be a nice starting goal.

Strategy/Approach
The PE will post picks each day that fall under 4 basic categories and we will track the results, including profits and key handicapping lessons learned. Most of the picks will be posted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday as to avoid work conflicts. In addition to the selections, the rationale or handicapping angles will be listed. A recap of the previous days selections will be posted with net profits/losses and capping lessons learned.

A structured wagering strategy will be used as outlined below.

Success Factors
I will use the following principles in order to maximize the chances for success:
•I will focus only a few designated tracks, which play to my strength – For the first 5 months of the year I will focus primarily on Tampa Bay Downs but may mix in a few plays from Santa Anita and Gulfstream.
•I will focus on only a few race conditions, which play to my strengths
•I will limit the number of plays to only the very best – Wagering on too many tracks and races is a recipe for disaster
•I will use a designated wagering structure for Phase 1 of the experiment. One lesson learned from before was too much of the bankroll was in play in any given week and it caused more volatility than is desired.
•In addition to the capping arsenal, I will build out a stable of horses based on troubled trips and key races. This proved effective in 2011.
•We will let off the gas when things are going south, and take breaks if needed. Going on sustained timeframes of losses is a good way to bankrupt the experiment so knowing when to press and take breaks is key.
•To the extent possible, bad beats and nose defeats will not affect the capping process. Staying focused is key.

Wagering Strategy

Having a set in stone wagering strategy was one of the key lessons learned from 2011. I have thought about the optimal strategy and will use the following baselines for all wagers.

Best Bets – AT least 3 positive angles and identification of a vulnerable favorite. Win wager between $30 and $40.

Value Plays – AT least 2 positive angles and identification of a vulnerable favorite. Win wager between $15 and $25.

Longshot Plays – At least 2 positive angles on a horse over 15-1 Morning line. Win wager $15, flat bet.

Spot Plays – AT least 1 positive handicapping angle. Win wager $10, flat bet

We will start out with a real bankroll of $1000. Wagers made will be done via an online account (legal of course). Hence, wagers are real and we will track progress based on the bankroll. On any given day, no more than 10% of the bankroll will be in play.

We will not be making place wagers. I’ve debated this for years and have come to the conclusion that win wagers over time yield the most profits. Also, we won’t be hedging and making multiple selections per race. That only dilutes profits. In addition, we will mix in exacta and trifecta wagers and track profitability by wager type as well. Pick 3 wagers will be placed periodically, with the assertion that the structure will use at least one single in the sequence, and that single was identified as a best bet or a value play.

The above wagering structuring will be used until we show a profit of $2000. Once that target level is reached we will mix in pick 4’s and bump up base wagers.

We will use the below format for the selections and recap.

Wager type (Best bet, value play, longshot play, spot play)
Track
Race Number
Horse Name
Horse Number

Rationale/ Key to race
Angle 1
Angle 2
Angle 3
Angle 4
Favorite Vulnerability angle

Wagers
Win bet amount
Exacta, Trifecta wagers
Total wagered

Recap
Lessons Learned
Day’s Net Profit/Loss
Cumulative Net Profit/Loss

Here is to the official launch of the Ponycapper Experiment. Hopefully, with a little luck and solid handicapping, the blog will prove to be a fun and positive learning experience, with an eye towards profitability in the years ahead.

Good luck to all followers.
Whitey