I like a lot:

11 – Mondego (10-1)

Comments:

I marked this one as a future turf star back in FEB but he has disappointed as of late. Still, I think this one may be primed for a big one in a field lacking pace. Maybe he tries to steal it.

Betting this one to win and place.

Predicted Order of Finish:

No clue, just betting the 11, maybe throw 6 and 7 in exacta box

Race 3 – Dirt Mile

I like a lot:

7 – Algiers (6-1)

************UPDATE SCRATCHED — NO PLAY*******

Comments:

Horse has banked 2.9 million on the dirt and it feels like the last was just a prep. He will have to beat the favorite Cody’s Wish, who may be vulnerable around two turns. Overall, feels like a watered down rendition with the scratch of practical move and not a ton of speed signed on.

I’ll play the 7 to win with a nice exacta box with the 3 Cody’s Wish

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Algiers ******SCRATCH*****

3 – Cody’s Wish

6 – Skippy Longstocking

UPdate

EX box 3-6

Race 4 – F&M TURF

Slight Lean:

1 – In Italian (4-1)

9 – Didia (8-1)

Comments:

Starting on the hill will benefit this mare as she can carry her speed further, in a field that lacks pace. If she can set a comfortable pace, she is the most likely winner.

My upset special horse is the 9, Didia. Could get the perfect set up laying off the pace and its hard to ignore that she is 9 for 11 lifetime on the turf, and likes it firm. She is a major Player and will be using in the multi race gimmicks. The best EURO looks to be the 6 Inspiral as she has banked 2.6 million and might be tough to beat. I also like a flyer in the 7 Lindy at 12-1 to hit the board. If she was 4 instead of 3 and had soft ground she would be tough. Still, can make noise late.

Win bet 1

Ex box 1-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – In Italian

9 – Didia

6 – Inspiral

7 – Lindy

Race 5 – F&M SPRINT

Strong Opinion, but not great betting race, I like:

1 – Good Night Olive (6-5)

Comments:

BY far, the stand out of the day but I wont be using to win. I will look to single in the multi’s. She is a 7F dirt specialist and should beat this mediocre field. She is 8 for 11 lifetime and has beat some tough competition. Would love her more if she wasn’t on rail. I will try and make some money with my 2^nd choice running up into the exacta and that will be the 5 Kirstenbosch, who should really get a nice set up and the extra distance will definitely help her style. The addition of blinkers really helped two back. Outisde chance to upset but will play her in combination with the favorite in exactas. The 7 society is a main danger to wire the field as 2^nd choice if the 3 horse doesn’t try for the lead.

EX 1 – 5

Ex box 1-5

TRI Straight

1 with 5 with 7

1 with 5 with all

Saver win bet 5

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – Good Night Olive

5 – Kirstenbosch

7 – Society

Race 6 – TURF MILE

No strong opinion, looks wide open, tread lightly, save bankroll for later

Slight lean to:

3 – Casa Creed

Comments:

Will be pace dependent but I like him rolling late to mow them all down. He is the best the US has to offer. Feels like the ML is inflated so don’t be surprised if he is 5-1 come post. MY longshot flyer in this race will be the 1 Shirl Speight who could hit the board at a massive price (30-1 ML). Johnny V jumps on and it feels like a ground saving trip will improve the chances. The 10 Songline (5-2) could be a tough customer from Japan and the most likely winner of the group of favorites. The 14 master of the seas drew a tough post but has a ton of talent and is a danger.

Treading lightly overall as EUROs dominate this race but will give a look to a small win bet on Casa Creed.

And a what the heck very small TRI Box – 1-3-10-14

Predicted Order of Finish:

3 – Casa Creed

10 – Songline

1 – Shirl Speight

14 – Master of the Seas

Race 7 – DISTAFF

Strong Opinion here, I like:

9 – Clairiere (4-1)

6 – Search Results (5-1)

Could be a wise guy horse and get bet down as it looks obvious on paper that she might get the best set up with all the speed signed on. Won’t be surprised if she is 5-2 come post but I do feel she has the best chance of winning, and is worth a hefty wager. The 6 Search results is capable on her best day and she can be tactical which may work to her advantage. If the pace is fast, don’t be surprised if the 7 Wet Paint runs a big one at 10-1. The set up will be ideal and will be running late to hit the board.

Win bet 9

Big EX BOX – 6-9

TRI BOX – 6-7-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

9 – Clairiere

6 – Search Results

7 – Wet Paint

Race 8 – TURF

I like:

8 – Up to the Mark (5-1)

Comments:

I think the extra distance helps here and I don’t think we have seen this ones true potential. Yes, the EUROs excel in this race but at a square price of 5-1 I will run to the windows and hope for the best. I will take a flyer with Japanese horse Shahryar (15-1) to blow up the exotics. Has banked over 8 million and is one of the best in Japan. He likes it firm too which adds to the intrigue. The 9 Mostahdaf (5-2) has the best chance of the EUROS and will use him defensively in exotics. A longshot that could hit the board is the 10 Adhamo (30-1) who is a Brown runner that is 3^rd off the layoff and has some good races last year that might make him a danger.

Win bet 8

Ex box 1-8

Small tri box – 1-8-9-10

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Up to the Mark

1 – Shahryar

9 – Mostahdaf

10 – Adhamo

Race 9 – Classic

Kind of feels like an all race as things might get crazy.

But, I will give a lean to:

8 – Ushba Tesoro (4-1)

Comments:

Winner of 7 of 8 and 9 million on the dirt feels like a stand out and offers tremendous value at 4-1. The Japanese runner could be boom or bust and perhaps it’s a sucker bet, as it may look too easy. If he doesn’t win, then I think its bombs away. The 5 Dermo Sotogake (20-1) was my derby pick and he hasn’t run since that dreadful performance. He fought through a foot issue which kept him on the sideline and I am not 100% sure he is fit and ready to go. Still, the talent is there and wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a big one. Another longshot with a great chance to hit the board is the 10 Dreamlike (30-1). This guy has yet to unleash his full talent and I have good feeling he will run a big one at a huge number. He would be my pick to win this race next year as he has all the makings of a horse who will get better with seasoning and age. The same connections won this race at SA with Vino Rosso and on talent, this one may not be too far behind, even though it doesn’t look as such on paper. The 13 Proxy may run decent and hit the board.

Overall, looks like a race with overhyped favorites and marginal 3 YOs running on reputation vs softer competition in their running lines.

Win bet 8

Small saver win bet 5

Ex box 5-8-10

TRI – I will key 8 with 5-10-13 with all

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Ushba Tesoro

5 – Dermo Sotogake

10 – Dreamlike

13 – Proxy

Race 10 – Turf Sprint

Good luck figuring this one out. I will hit the ALL button and move on. Feels like 8 horses can win and of those with a chance I like the 1,3,5,7, 14

Take the race off and enjoy the madness of a longshot crossing the wire first.

Race 11 – Sprint

Looks like a chalk fest to end the day and I wont be doing anything crazy. The 7 might wire the field in a paceless race. But will look to be alive with the 4 logicals here.

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Speed Boat Beach

8 – Elite Power

6 – The Chosen Vron

2 – Dr. Schievel

Grid

• Strong Opinion means bet big
• Moderate Opinion means average size bet
• Slight Opinion – Small bet
• No Opinion – Consider horses you like as I don’t have a strong opinion so tread lightly.

Race 1 – No Opinion

• Consider the 3 horse as she has a win over the Churchill track and had a bad start in last.
• The 6 has an outside chance as the trainer does well with this jockey and may improve with a turn back in distance/

Race 2 – Slight Opinion

• Consider the 2 horse at decent odds. He faced tougher at gulfstream and shows early zip in a race lacking pace.
• The 6 adds blinkers and should be running late.
  • I like an exacta box here 2-6
  • Small win bet 2 horse
  • Trifecta key 6 with 2-7 with all
    • Say it like this at window
  • Two dollar trifecta 6 with 2-7 with all

Race 3 – Moderate Opinion

• With plenty of pace signed on, it could set up for a closer.
• I like the 7 horse as he had a nice maiden breaking win at the track and could get the ideal set up.
• The 5 horse will be dangerous but will likely be overbet because of the trainer. Also gets nice pace set up.
• The 2 horse will be closing late and has 3 2^nd place finishes at this track.
  • Win bet 7
  • Exacta box 5-7
  • Tri  box 2-5-7
  • Tri key 7 with 2-5-6

Race 4 – No Opinion

Race 5 – Moderate Opinion

• The 1 is the class of the field and likely gets best trip on the rail tucked behind the speed horses. Worth small win bet.
• The 8 is my longshot to hit the board.
• The 10 is another classy runner and should get the set up needed
• Small tri box 1-8-10

Race 6 – Slight Opinion

The 6 is the best horse but also like the 5 to run well.

Ex box 5-6

Race 7 – Not worth betting much

• 6 looks too tough to beat.
  • Go Exacta box 5-6
  • Trifecta Key – 6 with 5 with 3-7

Race 8 – Strong Opinion – Lock of the day

• The 5 horse will get a dream trip here with all of the speed signed on.
  • Big win bet on 5.

Race 9 – Strong Opinion

• The 6 horse has the versatility to stalk off a hot pace and has the talent to win. He is my value play of the day based on ML odds.
• The 9 horse will be rolling late and is a great play underneath to get up for 2^nd or 3^rd.
• 5 is the horse most likely to make the lead early and could be dangerous if unchallenged
• 10 horse is the class of field but is vulnerable coming off layoff
  • Big Win bet 6
  • Small win bet on 9
  • EX box 6-9
  • Ex box 5-6-9
  • Tri box 5-6-9
  • Tri Key 6 with 5-9-10

Race 10

• The 3 is the speed of the race and could go wire to wire
• The 8 is the best closer and will be rolling late
• The 9 has an outside chance to play spoiler
  • Win bet 3
  • Ex box 3-8
  • Tri box 3-8-9

Race 11 – OAKS

• Defection of the 7 means the pace will be slower and benefits the front runners. On paper looks pretty chalky and not much money to be made.
• I will make the 6 my top pick as he could be the pace setter and has some nice races including 2 wins at the track.
• The 10 is undefeated and likely favorite. Might be tough to beat.
  • Suggest a big exacta box with these two to create value. 6-10 Ex box.
• My longshot to hit the board is the 14. Jockey switch is key and should be up near the pace.
• I also like the 3 to run big though she may not get the pace she needs.
  • Recommend a $1 tri key
  • 6-10 with 3-6-10-14 with 3-6-10-14
  • $1 Superfecta 6 with 10 with 3-14 with all
    • Should cost around 20 bucks

Good Luck

On paper, there looks to be a fair amount of speed so the pace could be quick, and it might set up for a late runner.

If that is the case and the pace unfolds as anticipated, I will take Tom’s D’Etat. He may be a wise guy horse due to his bad trip in last but I do think he is the horse that might benefit the most from a fast pace. Often, when we are talking about this caliber of horses, trip makes all the difference. He comes into the race off a nice freshening and the trainer won this race 10 years ago with Blame, who beat the famed Zenyatta.

For 2^nd I will go with Improbable who has the best speed figures coming into the race and should get a nice staking trip.

For 3^rd I will go with Tiz the Law who never runs a bad race.

If you are looking to fill out the superfecta with a longshot try Tacitus or Title Ready, both are clunking up late for a share.

So the official picks

4 horse to win

Exacta box 4-8

Good Luck to all!!

An unconventional Belmont Stakes is on tap today….no fans, new distance, and it will be the first leg of the Triple Crown.

These changes most likely mean that we will have to change our approach regarding handicapping, as the normal patterns and form indicators from the TC Trail, won’t be in play. To me, it feels like the Wood Memorial, a key Derby prep.

Most would likely agree on 2 Things:

1 – This is a well below average field with many unproven horses, that seem a notch below the star- studded names we lost on the TC trail like Nadal, Charlatan and Maxfield.

2 – Tiz the Law looks tough to beat, and he will go off well below the ML odds of 6-5. Probably 4-5 is more like it.

But, like any race with a heavy favorite, we will look for value, and opportunities to beat the heavy favorite.

Here is how I see the field:

1 – Tap it to Win – 6-1 – Will be the likely 2^nd choice at 4-1 or 9-2 off his last performance. While this looks like a step up in class, and sure it is, I really liked his win against a tough field in the recent Belmont Allowance. Johnny V sat chilly on the horse the whole race other than some light encouragement in the lane. The presence of newcomer Fore Left, the only other speed, doesn’t help, but if he can work out a trip, he is a main player here. If good enough, he could spring the upset.

2 – Sole Volante – 9-2 – Got the perfect set up in last at GP where the speed duel burned out the front runners. This guy was my early season Derby sleeper as I think he has tons of talent. To me, there are a couple things working against him as I think he needs pace help upfront to launch his closing rally. He might not get it today. In addition, I think coming into this race off a short rest is not a winning Belmont angle, the connections may have been best served waiting for the Haskell, instead of rushing him into this. Love the horse, just don’t like the situation today, and he will likely be over bet off a somewhat deceiving set up win. Tabbing for the derby, but today, most likely could clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th.

3 – Max Player – 15-1 – Most will question the long layoff coming into this, but I do think this horse needed some time to mature, based on the trainer’s comments. When I watched the replay of the Withers, I saw a grinder, which is always a good attribute in the Belmont Stakes. Overall, this guy is a sneaky sleeper as often 3 YOs can improve leaps and bounds over the spring season, and the trainer is more than capable.  Live longshot to include underneath.

4- Modernist – 15-1 – Has tactical speed which may be an advantage but just not sure about how much talent he has, considering the connections were pondering the Ohio Derby a few weeks ago.

5 – Farmington Road – 15-1 – Pletcher’s other runner will need a fast pace to make a late run. I do think his last in the ARK Derby was better than it looked, and I think there is some talent in tow. Jockey and Trainer have teamed up in the Belmont to make some noise with some longshots – Stay Thirsty in 2011, Commissioner in 2014, and Destin in 2016 – all came in 2^nd and 2 of them were greater than 25-1.  Use underneath.

6 – Fore Left – 30-1 – Will be a pace factor but it would be a stretch to think he might be around late. Look for him to set the pace and try to wing it on lead.

7 – Jungle Runner – 50-1 – Anytime I see a horse who doesn’t belong, and the trainer has another horse in the race, there is only one work that comes to mind — SHENANIGANS !!!! We all remember the BS Baffert pulled back in 2018 with entering a no-chance longshot Restoring Hope as a Blocker for his TC horse, Justify. Could this guy be in here to apply pressure on Tiz the Law to set it up for the Trainers other guy – Pneumatic?

8 – Tiz the Law – 6-5 – Likely odds here will be lower on this deserving favorite. He has an ideal post and should get the stalk and pounce trip he desires. If you are looking for chinks in the armor, perhaps you have to question the level of talent he faced in Florida. To me, he didn’t beat much while earning those stellar speed figs. While he gets more of the same slog of mediocrity today in this field, he is a play against down the road as we start looking at the Derby. Still, he towers over this field and is the most likely winner, but at 4-5 and as a value capper, I will look elsewhere to generate a profit and hope he is good, but not good enough. Must use in all exotics.

9 – Dr. Post – 5-1 – Pletcher’s main contender looks great on paper but I don’t think he beat much in Florida and was aided by the fast pace. The connections would be wise to put this one on the turf as he has outstanding breeding on both sides and he definitely has the talent. Today, I have to take a stand against and pass on him for inclusion. You can’t play them all, and taking a stand worked out well last year, as I excluded Improbable in last year’s Preakness and War of Will in the Belmont after cashing a big ticket on him in the Preakness.

10 – Pneumatic – Probably the wise guy horse as he is lightly raced and has talent. Should get a nice trip from the outside and can stalk the favorite.  I do think his last was decent as the inside wasn’t the place to be at Churchill that day in the Matt Winn. Definitely a wildcard to use, as his best would fit with this mediocre group.

So, Who Wins?

Assuming Tap it to Win doesn’t get caught in some kind of duel, I only see two scenarios:

Tap it To Win and Tiz the Law engage in a stretch long battle in a close finish. Or, Tiz the Law blows by Tap it to Win at the top of the stretch and some others clunk up for the minors. I am banking on the former and hoping Tap it To Win can hold on for the victory.

The only other scenario I see is a horse jumps way up and surprises. Most likely, that could be Max Player or Pneumatic.

How Does the Race Set up?

6 horse sets the pace. 1 horse stalks in 2^nd and hopefully flanked to his outside. Pace will be honest but not fast, remember it’s a one turn race so the early fractions will be faster than the normal two turn variety – possible 46 and change for the half and 110 and change for three-quarters. Around the Turn, look for the 1 and 8 to make their moves with the 1 leading into the lane. Big battle down the stretch with the 1 holding off the 8 in a close finish. 8 lengths back you will see some clunkers coming up for 3^rd and 4^th, primarily, Max Player, Farmington Road, Sole Volante.

Whiteys Win Contenders and Top 2

1 – Tap it to Win – If Johnny V can work out the desired trip, he has the talent to contend in this year’s weak Belmont. Unfortunately, 6-1 ML will not be in the cards and 4-1 is more likely.

8 – Tiz the Law – Deserving favorite should get the trip and may have to deal with Tap it To Win late. Horse really hasn’t been in a tussle and tends to drift in the lane. And, because of this, I lean towards the one horse, and the much better price, for the win.

Live “Hit the Board” Contenders (in order of preference)

3 – Max Player – I really like this guy to hit the board and may even be worth a win saver. He is a fresh face in an average field who has had time to develop. I like that he was based at Belmont the last few months and the connections were wise to pass on the alure of the ARK Derby and wait it out. Only possible knock is the post as when you look at the replays, he wanted the outside and may not like the kick back that he might get today.

5 – Farmington Road – Just get the feeling he is sitting on a nice one-run close today to possibly hit the board. The talent is there, and I like the connections in this contest. A fast pace would help but regardless, I will definitely be playing underneath.

10 – Pneumatic – Wildcard of the group especially if he takes to the Belmont surface. I really like the outside post for this guy as I get the feeling the rail was not ideal for him in his last. Will likely track outside the 8 and will try a similar stalk and pounce tactic. Including underneath more of a defensive play, as I think he is eligible to improve with a better post, and better trip.

2 – Sole Valante – Love the talent but not sure today is the day for his one run style, coming back on short rest on a new track. May clunk up for 4^th.

Suggestions for Playing (AKA Wagering)

Risk Averse guys may just want to go with a win bet on 1 and an exacta box 1-8.

Nothing wrong with this approach. Exacta won’t pay much but I think this combo is the most likely.

I also like some tri Keys:

1 with 8 with 3-5-10 (will likely hammer this)

1 with 3-5-8-10 with 3-5-8-10 (for a dollar – costs 12)

Maybe a tri box – 1-3-8 in case the 3 surprises

I might cover myself in a super with Tiz up top

SUPER

8 with 1 with 3-5- with 3-5-2-10 – $2 will cost you 12 (but you can do for a dollar and spend 6)

This could pay a few hundred bucks and help eke out a small profit.

Small win saver bet on 3 (what the heck)

Good Luck in the Belmont !!!

Whitey

Best Bet of the Day

Race 4

4 horse – Fluent in Sarcasm

Trainer does great first time on Turf while new in Barn.

Trainer hits at 41% when dropping into MDN claimer from MSW

Two starts back tried much tougher at GP outside of conditions and the jockey fell off.

First on turf back in 2019 made a decent showing in turf debut at Del Mar.

If he breaks well today he could be tough considering he is trying new York breds for first time and drops into maiden claimer.

Win bet 4

Take a shot with an exacta box with 2 medium shots in the mix

Ex box – 2-4-9

****************

Race of the Day – Race 8

This is a nice state bred allowance race.

Field Quality

The field looks to be a little below par for the level, with no clear standouts.

Main Contenders

10 Good Credence – 9-2

Had terrible trip in last vs tougher, with an unfortunate gate mishap. Draws outside post, which will give the jock some options. Switch to Johnny V helps.

7 – Officer Hutchy – 4-1

Very nice Linda Rice runner will be tough and could be the main beneficiary if a pace duel develops.

5 – Quality Stones – 8-1

Anytime this trainer scores with a first timer you have to assume the horse is a nice runner (because he rarely connects first out). Should be the main pace factor and could steal it on lead if unchallenged.

Other Contenders to hit board

9 – Behind the Couch – 5-2

Likely race favorite has tons of talent but is coming off an extended 8 month layoff. Long layoffs is not in this trainers wheelhouse as he only hits at 10%. Still, must be respected, and if he is fit, he will be tough.

3 – Bustin Scones – 15-1

Should benefit from a return to Belmont and will be closing late.

6 – Wailin Josie – 10-1

This horse really likes Belmont and the field she beat in her last Belmont score was pretty good, as some of the runners cam back to score multiple times since. Would also benefit from fast pace.

How the Race Could Set up

The 1 and 5 are the speed of the race. They both had great pace figs in debut wins and both could be scrambling for lead.

The 2 and 9 also have speed but should be just off the pace.

Overall, pace should be honest as there are a few layoff horses in here which could add to the early pace (fresh horses often show early speed)

Good Credence has the advantage of the outside post to see what kind of pace develops.

She could stalk in 2^nd flight to the outside of the 9 and try to pounce on the two leaders turning for home,  getting first jump on the closers.

The 7 will be running late and could be the main contender to try and run down Credence late.

Could be photo finish between 7 and Good Credence with the 5 not far behind in game effort.

I see it as:

1 – 10 Good Credence

2 – 7 Officer Hutchy

3 – 5 Quality Stones

4 – 9, 3 or 6

Tons of speed in the race likely to set it up for closer.

6- Bellafina – 6-1

Could get dream trip and is 4 for 4 at Santa Anita. Advantage local horse.

4 – Come Dancing – 5-2

Running style benefits her. Been facing small fields back east

1 – Covfefe – 2-1

Speed of speed has to outrun the others early and hold off closers.

Chance to hit board – 5- Lady Ninja – 10-1 – Extra distance helps

Race 5 — Turf Sprint

Tough race and is wide open.

Outside posts at the meet on this turf course haven’t fared too well.

3 – Imprimus – 8-1

Could be sitting in garden spot turning for home. Tons of talent. Don’t like jockey switch.

2 – Pure Sensation – 5-1

Classy horse will be gunning for lead. May face pressure but could hold on late.

6 – Stormy Liberal – 8-1

Won this race last year. Should get nice trip

Chance to hit board – 13 – Girls Know best – 20-1 – Tons of speed if draws in and could hang around for share.

Race 6 – Dirt Mile

1 – Giant Expectations – 12-1

Faced the best company in the field and has consistent (and good) speed figs. Can sit off the pace, save ground, and be in the mix late for the upset.

5 – Omaha Beach – 8-5

Likely favorite would best be served rating today. Could win easy in very suspect field, comprised mainly of 3yos.

6 – Ambassadorial – 30-1

Blow up the board with this one. First Lasix for a horse well bred for dirt.

Chance to hit board – 3 – Spun to Run – 6-1 – Improving 3yo may get the set up needed.

Race 7 – F&M Turf

2 – Sistercharlie – 8-5

Won 6 in a row and should get the set up again

10 – Mrs Sippy – 8-1

Has done well turning back and here in US with Lasix

3 – Fleeting – 6-1

3yo should like the distance.

Chance to hit board – 4 – Billesdon Brook 10-1 – Faced some of the best last year

Race 8 – Sprint

9 – Imperial Hint – 4-1

Dream set up off likely fast pace.

3 – Firenze Fire – 12-1

Would benefit the most if the pace is blistering, and has tons of talent

4 – Mitole – 9-5

One to beat but could take pace pressure to his outside

Chance to Hit Board – 6 – Shancelot – 4-1 – Speed of speed is a freak. Jockey tactics key

Race 9 – TVG Turf Mile

Wide open race. Total crapshoot.

11 – Uni – 7-2

Most consistent US horse in race and trained by Chad Brown.

6 Got Stormy – 7-2

Speed figs getting better each race

2 – Lucullan – 12-1

Can save ground and get up late for a share.

Chance to hit Board – 1 – Suedois – Will need to work out a trip but really liked the US debut in last. Worth a flyer for longshot players.

Race 10 – Distaff

FAV looks tough here. Field is loaded with speed so I am leaning towards the closers underneath.

4 – Midnight Bisou – 6-5

The most likely favorite to win on the day should get nice set up and loves this track.

11 – Blue Prize – 6-1

Faced Elate many times and should be closing late.

9 – Serengeti Empress – 12-1

Likely speed of speed has options with outside post. I’m tossing last as PARX strip is often quirky.

Chance to Hit Board – 6 – Wow Cat – 12-1 – Race set up works to her advantage

Race 11 – Breeders Cup Turf

10 – Old Persian – 4-1

Euros seem to dominate this race and firm footing is only question.

9 – Bricks and Mortar – 9-5

Monster horse loves to win. Stretchout may hurt chances with slower pace

11 – Arklow – 12-1

Great value bet on this one at these odds. Can get decent trip here, stalking and pouncing.

Chance to Hit Board – 1 – Zulu Alpha – 20-1 – Hard knocker can hit the board at big price.

Race 12 – Breeders Cup Classic

Not much speed in this one so I expect the pace to be slower than most think. Being around the lead will be key.

10 – Vino Rosso – 4-1

Trip is key as he will get first jump on the closers and could have enough in tank to hold them off. Has a win over track which is a plus.

8 – Mckinzie – 3-1

Lukewarm favorite loves this track and the extra distance is the only wildcard.

5 – Yoshida – 8-1

Will be closing late to earn a share.

Chance to hit board – 2 – Seeking the Soul – 20-1 – Pilot to bombardier special to run a big race here. Had excuses in past few and I love the back class here facing a very weak classic field

Also Consider Underneath :

6 – Elate – 6-1

Always gives it her all and faces boys today. Can hit board.

11 – Code of Honor – 4-1

May not get fast pace and will have too much to do late to earn the win.

GOOD LUCK !!!!

Whitey

Moving onto the Belmont….Here are the main story lines for this year’s Test of a Champion….

• No Triple Crown on the line…
  • Typically, over the last dozen years or so, when there hasn’t been a TC at stake, chaos has reigned supreme, with medium priced horses, and longshots finding the winners circle.
• Field Quality….
  • This year’s Belmont is shaping up as one of the weakest in recent memory, with the Derby Winner – Country House, OUT, and best horse in the Derby, Maximum Security, Out, what are we left with? Answer – Not much, other than the two race favorites, Tacitus and War of Will, a bunch of marginal talent.
• Field Analysis….
  • The race can be summed up as follows: Little speed, a bunch of horses with similar running styles, several well-bred for the distance but short on talent, potential vulnerable favorites…that is — Tacitus is a one run closer and these types don’t typically get the money in the slower paced Belmont. War of Will, who’s best game may not be a mile and a half, and may not have his “A” game, as he is the only guy running in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.
• The Weather….
  • Looks like a fast track for Saturday and may offer vindication of derby runners who hated the slop and gooey Derby track.

Before we get into the field breakdown, lets re-cap the key handicapping variables and horse profiles that are ideal for finding a Belmont winner. These are horses that:

• Are well rested, and skip the Preakness
• Are well bred and have a stamina-heavy pedigree profile to get the monster mile and a half distance
• Have a running style suited for the Belmont – which is a stalker, has tactical speed, like to be close to the pace, or at worst, mid-pack runners with tactical speed
• Have talent, and fit on numbers, and good speed figures going back to previous races
• Offer betting value, or who’s odds of winning are much better than the odds on the tote board
• And, one more thing that is a plus…. Going back the last 10 years in non-triple crown Belmont races (where no TC was on the line), the race has been dominated by horses who ran in the Derby —often not running well, and then finding redemption in the Belmont. Horses like Tapwrit in 2017, Creator in 2016, Palace Malice in 2013, and Union Rags in 2012. Often these were decent price horses, over 10-1, because they ran poorly in the Derby.

I have fared well with the above recipe and have nabbed some “nice price” winners lately, such as Tapwrit and Tonalist.

Picks and Analysis

Whitey’s Top 4 (in order of preference)

4 – Tax

ML odds 15-1, projected off odds, 17-1

Tax checks all the Belmont profile boxes. He is well-rested, skipping the Preakness, and this will only be his 3^rd start in 2 months. As mentioned, the Derby to Belmont route is an ideal path, with positive ROI in recent years.

Tax is one of the best-bred horses in the field for the grueling distance. The other two on par are Tacitus and Intrepid Heart. Tax has tremendous stamina influences on both sides including Arch as his sire, with Kris S and Roberto as stamina influence. On dam side, has stamina influences Giants Causeway, AP Indy and Northern Dancer. He should like the stretch out and would seem to benefit from the grinding style required for the Belmont.

His running style is stalker, mid-pack horse who will find himself closer to the pace today, with the slower pace expected. With an ability to stay close and pounce at the right time, Tax could get an ideal trip, getting first run, and holding off the closers. The draw out of the 4 post is ideal with a speed ball and two dead closers to his left, he can easily sit behind the one horse, and save all the ground on the sweeping Belmont turns.

Tax has a lot of talent – more than people would give him credit for, as he has 3 triple digit Brisnet speed figures on his resume, in his 3 races prior to the Derby. Aside from Derby, he has a 101, 102, 103. And, how many horses have recorded a triple digit Brisnet number? 3 — Tacitus in the Wood (103), Spinoff in the LA Derby (102) and Sri Winston in the Peter Pan (101).

Tax offers a lot of value, with expected off odds of at least 15-1. He only lost to Tacitus in the Wood by a length, so it’s hard for me to understand the expected disparity in the odds between the likely race favorite and Tax.

Naysayers will point out:

1 – He didn’t run well in the Derby

2 – He is a former claimer that doesn’t belong at this level of competition

Here are my responses:

Draw a line through the Derby. Clearly, he hated the track and the kickback he received while racing on the rail. Huge profits await handicappers once they learn how to draw a line through a race and can forgive poor showings with a valid excuse. Secondly, in a normal year, where the 3yo crop is decent or good, I would say yes, class is a concern. But, let’s be realistic. This is a weak 3 yo class and Belmont Stakes – which is already missing Maximum Security. He has already shown that he fits with this group based on his 2^nd place Wood effort, and strong speed figures in the preps.

In Summary, Tax has every chance for redemption today given the profile, stamina pedigree, running style, and talent. He has an underrated trainer, and is now switching to one of the leading jocks, who won 3 years ago on Creator. I also like that Belmont is his home track, going way back to his 2 yo campaign. No other horse in the field has as much experience training over this oval, which can only be an advantage.

The bottom line is if you commit to betting on value plays — that is the horse’s true odds of winning are greater than actual track odds — you have the greatest chance at turning a long-term profit and yield a positive ROI. In this case, Tax’s true odds are somewhere in the 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 range and we will get at least 15-1.  Whitey says — take a flier on Tax, and hope for a good trip, and that the jockey can navigate inside a tiring one horse on the final turn and hold off the closers late.

10 – Tacitus

ML Odds 9-5, projected off odds 8-5

Tacitus checks many of the Belmont boxes, and is a horse to fear based on talent, strong pedigree, and he comes in well-rested.

He ran a decent race in the Derby, closing to be 4^th and promoted to 3^rd, though he really wasn’t flying in the lane or making up a ton of ground late.

His biggest assets — he has tons of talent and has great bloodlines, with stamina on both sides, and sired by Tapit.

I would have no issue with anyone that says, “Whitey I am betting large on Tacitus because he is the best horse in the race”. I would never talk anyone off the horse because he is a legit contender. But for me personally, the value isn’t there, as you are likely only getting 2-1 or less. The more prudent play in my eyes, assuming you really like him, is to key him on top in the trifecta and get some prices underneath.

The biggest knock against this guy is his running style. In his victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood, he got the perfect set up for his one-run closing style. A fast pace was the key. Today, he will need to convert from a one-run closer to more of a mid-pack grinder, because of the longer distance and slower pace. Just to illustrate, in the Tampa Bay Derby he closed into fast fractions of 45 and change for the half. The Belmont will be run at 47 and change and maybe even 48, and likely 112 and change for three quarters.  

In summary, lot to like, but you are banking on him to either get the fast pace he needs or to change his running style to be more forwardly placed. Either is a risk, and the likely outcome is a closer who hits the board, but falls short of winning.

6 – Spinoff

ML odds – 15 -1, projected off odds – 20-1

Blog followers know I am a huge fan of this guy, and I am willing to forgive the Derby slop-fest debacle, based on the comments made by the trainer. Today, he has every right to improve and will be forwardly placed, with an opportunity to get a dream trip with a patient ride. Breeding is good for the distance, as outlined in a previous post, and have always been a fan, based on talent. He is trained by Pletcher, who has 3 Belmont wins on his resume, and now gets an overdue Belmont winning rider in Castellano. My one bold prediction here is that turning for home, if you have a win wager on him, you will start to feel excited, as he will be in the mix, with a legitimate chance. Whether he is good enough down the lane, who knows. They key for him is not moving too soon as he likes a target, and is prone to wandering or losing focus when he gets the lead. Looks like all systems go for this guy based on the speedy recent workouts and don’t be surprised if he is stalking the pacesetter, the one horse. The one aspect I am a little critical of is his jockey. He moved too soon in 2016 on Destin, when he lost by a nose. And, last year, he took huge criticism for not sending his mount (Noble Indy) to the lead or staying close to the pace early to challenge Justify. (Even the owner was critical). What does it all mean – I don’t know. But, I hope he knows that his horse has speed and needs to be near the lead early, for his best chance to win.

Bottom line, include based on trip scenario, and if he is good enough, has big shot to hit the board.

7 – Sir Winston

ML Odds – 12-1, Projected off odds, 12-1

Let me introduce my superfecta spoiler. This guy has all the makings of a clunk-up-out-of-nowhere horse, that will be closing fast. The key for this guy — was the jockey switch. I watched several of the race replays of this horse and it became clear the previous jockey had him way too far back in the early stages. In the Peter Pan, the jockey switch to Rosario could be the key. Yes, he was trailing, but he made his move much, much earlier in the race, which spurred his 2^nd place finish. Leave this guy out of your tris and supers at your own risk. He appears to like Belmont and I can see him ruining many people’s superfecta dreams with a late charge to get to get 3^rd or 4^th.

Other Contenders to consider for Using Underneath

5 – Bourbon War

ML Odds – 12-1, Projected off odds 7-1

Had a legitimate excuse in Preakness as he washed out before the race. Perhaps taking the blinkers off and the jockey switch to Money Mike Smith could improve his chances. I would expect him more forwardly placed by the more aggressive rider, and his best plan of attack would be to sit mid pack and try and pounce. Overall, mixed feelings on this guy as I liked him in the Preakness and he flopped with a probable excuse. Will likely use defensively underneath.

Horses I am playing against and hoping for the best

9 – War of Will

ML Odds – 2-1, projected off odds 5-2

I loved him in the Derby and Preakness, and now it’s time to jump ship. I learned a long time ago not to fall in love with a horse on the TC trail and keep betting him no matter the circumstances. Today is a different track and distance and while I believe in the talent, I have to play against this guy today.

To me — it’s hard to believe he is even running in this race with no TC on the line. His connections might be best-served by passing here, with an eye towards the summer classics, including the Haskell and Travers. If any of those are a goal, not sure how the 3^rd start in 5 weeks over a demanding distance would help that cause.

Sure, WoW could win — he is a very good horse. And, there is a part of me that’s rooting for him because he is extremely talented. But, for me, in the Belmont, he has too many things going against him, namely:

He is the only runner to race in all 3 legs of the TC.

3 races in 5 weeks is a problem, not because he will be tired, but because of the disruption to his training regime. After the Preakness, most trainers will give horses rest before resuming workout activity. That is valuable time lost for Belmont prep. I can’t see how this guy will be primed for a peak performance with training limitations, especially with the distance of the race.

He is a classic “push-button” runner. If you look at the races he won, he displayed tremendous turn of foot to blow by the competition and coast to an easy win. Has he ever been a stretch tussle? NO – not on the dirt. He has cruised to victories and made it look easy. I can’t really see the him flipping the switch in the Belmont, with the slower pace and more quality stalkers to contend with (yes, the Preakness field was a joke).

He got the ideal trip in the Preakness. Stalked a weak pace runner, and made his move along the rail, which was the best part of the track all day.

In summary, be happy for the gift odds in the Preakness as he should have been half that – the horse looked great on paper and was ignored at the window. Now, I am turning the page, and taking a stand against — if I am wrong, then so be it. Too many red flags here and unless this horse is truly great, I expect him to be in contention and then hit the brick wall in the last quarter mile. The combination of —- being confronted late by other well rested runners, the reality of 3 races in 5 weeks, and some pedigree questions on sire side for a mile and a half distance, could ultimately determine his fate as an “also ran” today.

Projected Also Rans

2 – Everlast

ML Odds – 12-1, projected off odds 10-1

Light bulb finally went off in Preakness and reports are glowing preparing for the Belmont. Running style not conducive for Belmont win, but clunking up for 3^rd or 4^th not out of question. At best, if you like him, use underneath.

3 – Master Fencer

ML Odds 8-1, projected off odds 6-1

This guy will take tons of Japanese money and many will love his late burst of speed in the Derby. If the track was wet today, then I would be using. But, we have a fast track today and the slower pace will compromise his late run. At best, I see the horse only with a chance to clunk up for 4^th. Has all of the makings of an overbet horse, who likely will run like a donkey.

8 – Intrepid Heart

ML Odds – 10-1, projected off odds 7-1

This is your Belmont wise guy horse. 10 years ago, I might have been duped into this guy — flashy pedigree, GREAT breeding for the distance, hall of fame trainer, adding blinkers, lightly raced, etc. etc.

But, he doesn’t check one key box for me, which is Talent. He was the worst favorite in a stakes race I have seen all year. Coming off 2 wins – a maiden win and first level allowance win, he was made the even money favorite over Global Campaign in the Peter Pan, who clearly had the better resume. To check the quality of the two wins, I went back and checked the charts on both races and researched what the “also rans” did in their subsequent races. There was only one horse from both races who came back to win, and that was likely because it was a class dropper. Overall, field quality was highly suspect in his two victories and his effort in the Peter Pan gives me no confidence to back him here, especially as a bet down wise-guy horse, that everyone is talking about, and is the trendy Belmont pick.

1 – Joevia

ML Odds – 30-1, projected off odds 50-1

Likely pace setter will try and steal it on the lead. Has sprint/mile pedigree, and is a guy for longshot lovers only.

Race Set Up

Let’s look at running style and how the race will unfold.

Running Style projections:

• Pacesetters
  • Joevia
• Up near the lead
  • Intrepid Heart, Spinoff, War of Will
• Stalkers – Mid Pack
  • Tax, Bourbon War, Tacitus
• Closers
  • Sir Winston, Everlast, Master Fencer

Here is how I see the race unfolding:

Joevia pops out to the lead. Intrepid Heart, with blinkers added will be flanked on his hip, with Spinoff and War of Will tracking in 3^rd. I see Tax getting a dream run, saving ground on the rail, tucked 3 or 4 lengths off the lead rounding the first turn. Tacitus will be more forwardly placed today, mid pack. Bourbon War is the wildcard. What will he do? Mike Smith likes to be aggressive so I can see him trying to stay a lot closer today.

Turning for home, look for Spinoff and War of Will to make their moves, circling around the two horses in front. Tax will try and sneak up the rail, and look for an opening around the tiring Joevia. Tacitus will start his long grind.

At the top of the stretch, look for Spinoff to shake off War of Will and Tax to make his move, with these two moving away. Tacitus is in range now and is ready to pounce. Nearing the wire, Spinoff tires and Tax and Tacitus wind up in a photo finish for the win. Spinoff holds on for 3^rd over a fast closing Sir Winston, with Everlast clunking up for 5^th.

Predicted order of finish:

4 – 10 – 6 – 7 – 2

How to Play it:

• Win bet – Tax
• Exacta Box – Tax and Tacitus
• Exacta Box – Tax, Tacitus, Spinoff
• Trifecta Box – Tax, Tacitus, Spinoff, Sir Winston

Good Luck!!

As usual, Whitey will try and break down the field and land a winner.

The main story lines for this derby are:

Will we finally get a winner that it is not a favorite? 6 years in a row — will it be 7?

No. History tells us when there is no clear-cut favorite, and the field is laced with mediocre talent, chances for chaos and confusion go up. So, cappers should expect the unexpected.

Whitey’s view is that we are on the verge of a derby upset, mainly because of the way the 3yo prep races have panned out – with longshots finding the winner circle on many occasions. This is a very competitive derby and cases can be made for at least half the field.

What is the impact of the Omaha Beach scratch?

Regarding Omaha Beach, this is by far the main story-line as this development will have an impact on 2 fronts:

1. Improves chances of front runners Vekoma, War of Will and Maximum Security, as the pace will be softer and no one pressing from their outside. We will look at this further in the pace breakdown.
2. Spreads out the betting, with the 3 Baffert runners now the favorites, and it appears the scratch could open the door for a longshot upset

And the other story line is WTF – what is the deal with the weather?

Looks like this could be the 3^rd year in a row where the track is sloppy. There is about a 70% chance of rain on Saturday, which could lead to another off track. We will also look at one runner who could improve if it’s wet.

Bottom Line & Whitey Picks

Normally, I would give you a breakdown of all 20 horses and then give my picks. This year, we will mix it up and get straight to the picks, summarizing how the race will shake out, along with some of the keys to victory. In addition, I will give you my “pilot to bombardier” wet track special horse, that should love the slop, and has a big chance to hit the board.

There are basically 3 pace scenarios I am looking at, from a race set up perspective:

1. A front runner sets a slow pace and wins wire-to-wire
2. Moderate pace, favors pace presser or stalker or even a mid-pack horse
3. Fast or contentious pace favoring the mid-pack or deep closer

So, I landed on scenario 2 as the most likely to occur, and that’s where I will sink or swim. But, let’s just quickly explore the other 2 first.

In scenario 1, which became more likely with the scratch of Omaha Beach, the two horses that will be likely fighting for ownership of the lead are the 6 Vekoma, and the 7 Maximum Security. If either are left alone, it could spell danger, especially for Maximum Security because the trainer is trying to instill stamina in his works to overcome his somewhat questionable pedigree for the distance. I do worry about this scenario playing out, but as most players have a budget to wager, you can’t play them all and you need to take a stand. I would estimate the likelihood of this scenario occurring to be around 15-20%.

Scenario 3, which became less likely with the scratch of Omaha Beach, involves horses hooking up on the lead, potentially 2 to 4 horses battling or 1 horse going out and winging it with 45 and change splits for the half. The wildcard here is War of Will, and what he decides to do. If he is gunning and intent on the lead, we could see the 1,6, and 7, and potentially others if frisky, battling up front. If this occurs, the likely beneficiaries are horses like Game Winner, Code of Honor, and Tacitus, as well as several longshots that could hit the board if a complete meltdown happens. Again, you can’t play them all and have to stake your position wisely, so let’s hope this doesn’t play out. I would estimate the likelihood of this scenario occurring to be around 15-20%.

Before I give you my thoughts on how scenario 2 could play out (or I hope to play out), here is my official picks and order of finish:

1 – War of Will (1 horse) – M/L odds 15 – 1 (projected off odds – 18-1)

2 – Game Winner (16 Horse) – M/L odds 9/2 (projected off odds 4-1)

3 – Spinoff (19 Horse) – M/L odds 30-1 (projected off odds 22-1)

4 – Tacitus (8 horse) M/L odds 8-1 (projected off odds 6-1)

So, basically, 2 pace pressers, 1 mid pack, and 1 mid-pack/closer to hit the super.

Honorable mention of horses I think could hit the board include: Roadster, Improbable, Cutting Humor, Vekoma, Maximum Security, and Tax.

Clunkers for 3^rd or 4^th could be Country House and win win win.

Race Breakdown

Let’s explore further the pace and break it down, specifically how the race may unfold:

I think the pace setter will be Vekoma, with Max Security flanked just off him, along with War of Will.

Spinoff will get a good position in 2^nd flight, maybe 5 lengths off the lead, while Game Winner sits in mid-pack, and wide (he doesn’t like kick-back)

The pace will be moderate, maybe 46 for a half, and 111 and change for 3 quarters.

Heading into the far turn, look for War of Will to pounce, and late runners Game Winner and Tacitus to start making their moves. Spinoff will move up behind War of Will and to his outside.

Turning for home, War of Will is the new leader with the 6 and 7 all-out to stay close. Spinoff will have his target in War of Will about 2 lengths behind him, and now Game Winner is now moved up to 6^th.

Tacitus tries a rail skimming ride on the turn to save ground.

From the eighth pole to the 16^th pole (220 yards out) Spinoff catches War of Will, but can’t get by and is repelled, with War of Will pulling away late. Game Winner is charging hard at the two rivals.

At the finish, War of Will holds on by a neck over Game Winner, with Spinoff 2-3 lengths back in 3^rd and just holding off hard-charging Tacitus to secure 3^rd, with Tacitus 4^th.

I have watched the last 7 or 8 derby replays and it seems most are won by a stalker, presser, (and a few mid-pack horses), with some closers making up ground for 2^nd . Rarely, do the two horses in the lead at the top of the stretch finish in that same order – 1 and 2 (that goes for all races).

It’s quite possible, Tacitus runs 2^nd if the pace is faster or Game Winner is not on his best game (pardon the pun).

Keys to the Race and Breakdown of Top 4

For War of Will:

First, let me say, the worst thing any handicapper could do is cap the winner and then get off him because of his post. Is 1 post ideal? No, of course not. But, it’s not as bad as people think. I watched replays of past derbies and the bottom line is the 1 hasn’t won since 1986 because in most years’ the 1 horse is a donkey, not because of the post. The last 7 years (except once) the 1 horse secured desired position. Like last year, Firenze Fire secured a dream trip just off the leaders, and tucked on the rail. He was 80-1 so did anyone expect him to win?

Bottom line — any capper who likes the 1 pre-draw, and gets off him because of the draw – then Whitey says, “it’s your own damn fault” if he wins. Echoes of “I loved the 1 but hated his draw” could be ringing out post-race. Don’t be one of those guys. I learned many years ago – which will be noted in my upcoming book – wager based on the horse’s credentials, and how you project he will run today, and ensure some value is there —- and golden rule —- never let post position significantly influence your decision. Note, this doesn’t apply to two horses you like about the same, and one of them has a dis-advantageous post. (in this case, if you like 2 horses, it’s okay for the post draw to be the tiebreaker)

The mis-conception for the derby and the one hole is as follows….

The 1 horse has the best chance to get knocked into the elbow, or get shuffled back, or pinched back just out of the gate because the wall of horses that want to get over to the rail in their effort to save ground. The fact is, yes, that is partially true, but it shouldn’t apply as a negative to either:

1. Horses that like to be on the lead and have speed out of the gate, or
2. Horses that are closers, who are content to be in the back, saving ground

Everyone else – all other styles, especially mid pack or stalkers do have a better chance to be compromised due to the wall I mentioned, and the more likely possibility of trouble. War of Will is a speed horse, and therefore, the 1 hole fixation, in fact, doesn’t apply (assuming he breaks decent).

Okay, with all of that out of the way….here is what War of Will needs to do (Whitey’s pre-race message to the Jockey)

Break sharp out of the gate. If you are a step slow, you could be toast.

Instead of rushing to the lead into the first turn, here is an idea, let the 6 and 7 pass you, and then you can wheel-out in a flanking position, or just stay put on the rail in 3^rd (if mud in your eye is okay).

If you decide not to follow these instructions and are intent on being the pace setter, well, too bad for me, as my win ticket goes up in smoke. This is not a recipe to win the derby, as your fate is dictated on whether the 6 or 7 decides to press you along the way from the outside.

Bottom line, break well, show speed, clear the field, or at least the inside horses, and then entering the first turn, let the speed horses pass you so that you can get the dream, pressing position.

Turning for home, you should be able to pass the overmatched 6 and 7 and hopefully hold off the closers to win the 2019 Derby!!!

Here is how I breakdown War of Will:

Pros

Threw in a clunker in the LA Derby as he had gate issues as well as hind leg issues. Comment in form was “Lost Action”. This was a legitimate excuse. However, the betting public will likely penalize his last race, leading to increased value at the window. In my view, his biggest asset is his running style and pedigree for the derby distance, and I think the time off from his last race will be an advantage. Bottom line is, this horse is extremely talented and had legitimate excuse in the LA Derby. Should benefit from pace pressing running style, and I also like that he has a victory in the slop at Churchill downs. Overall, this is mainly a value-play for Whitey, as his off odds will be higher than his actual chances of winning. And over time, betting for value is the only way to secure long term profits in the pari-mutual game.

The two main reasons why he won’t be 8-1 or less, as he deserves to be, is because people don’t know how to draw a line through a race (and are fixated with speed figs or how he ran last out). His excuse last time was legitimate and should be viewed as such. And, the 2^nd reason is, he drew the 1 hole. This is a real trend amongst the betting public. Many people will go in a different direction because of the post, leaving us inflated odds.

Cons

He didn’t face many world-beaters on the LA prep circuit, so it is a little tough to make a strong case for the company lines. Has done most of his damage from wide-posts, so the inside may not be ideal based on where he typically wants to be.

Summary

Has a big chance with a savvy ride – While he doesn’t have the gaudy speed figs, that shouldn’t sway you to toss this guy. The time off will help, and has been training great on the CD oval.

Distance Pedigree Grade – A – Derby pedigree is very good and the distance should be no problem

Off track Pedigree Grade – B – Already has a win on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs and would say his pedigree fits slop.

Game Winner

Game Winner’s best chance to win would involve a slightly faster pace where he can close into the leaders late, overtaking them for the win slot. The post draw is actually pretty good for this guy as the two on his left are horses with no speed, and he should be able to secure a tactical position 3^rd flight as mid pack, and tracking to the outside. This guy doesn’t like kick back too much so I surmise the jockey will have him to the outside on the first turn, maybe 4 or 5 wide. This is a good slot. The key for this guy will be timing his move. The jockey was criticized for his ride in the SA Derby as he moved too soon and was caught late by his stablemate. So, there is a chance he may wait a little longer today to make his one-run close.

Pros

Trained by the derby-wizard, Bob Baffert, who has dominated this race in recent years, Game Winner has disappointed since winning the BC Juvenile last fall at CD, as he finished 2^nd in both his 3YO starts. While his Rebel performance was understandable given the long layoff, many are left to wonder what happened in the SA Derby. Was he not fully cranked? Did he peak as a 2YO? How will he do in a much bigger field today? While these questions are legitimate, I am trending towards thinking this guy will bounce back given his affinity for CD, and the trust factor with Baffert having this one set for a peak performance.

Cons

The SA Derby was a disappointment but some question the jockey may have moved too soon. I fear “over-compensation” and being too far back in a crowded field. Some have indicated that maybe he peaked as a 2-year-old. Tactically speaking, the scratch of Omaha Beach doesn’t help as he likes to close and an honest or strong pace would work to his advantage. Also, the win value dropped, as he will likely be the post time favorite.

Summary – Great chance to win on talent and intangibles, but value is missing. Must use in all exotics.

Distance Pedigree Grade – A – Derby pedigree is excellent and the distance should be no problem

Off track Grade pedigree – A – This will be his first time on a sloppy track but has slop breeding on both sides including AP Indy, Candy Ride, Indian Charlie, In Excess, Blushing Groom

Spinoff

Come on Whitey – a 30-1 shot? Yes!!!!

I’ve been tracking this horse since last summer and even backed it up with a derby future wager on this guy in Pool 3.

Spinoff has a huge advantage with his post, as there are no real speed types to his immediate left and he should have no trouble establishing the position he wants, 2^nd flight, heading into the first turn. With Omaha Beach scratching from the 12 post, he can play the stalker type, taking up a position which could have been held by Omaha Beach.

The key to the race is as follows:

1 – break well and get the 2^nd flight position in the first turn

2 – Don’t move too soon on the far turn. Wait and wait. Keep grinding. Then pounce mid-stretch. If you are good enough, you can hit the board, and maybe even win?

Why should the jockey wait to move?

Spinoff’s trainer noted in his last race in the LA Derby the jockey made the lead too soon and he started looking around, and was unfocused in the lane. This led to the winner passing him, and a resulting 2^nd place finish. I also noted this in his previous race at Tampa Bay Downs – where he made the lead way too early, and then he let the competition sneak up on him. In that race, there was inferior competition and Spinoff was able to romp home by daylight after a few taps of the whip by his jockey to get him more focused in the stretch.

Pros

Pletcher trainee, is well bred for the derby distance, with a great blend of speed and stamina. His running style fits the derby winning profile. But, the other deciding factor for me, which led me to place the future wager, I am extremely high on his talent, and I think he is coming into the race poised for a big effort. I especially like that he was rested after the LA Derby and wasn’t thrown into another prep race to try and secure the points needed. Had time off, is well-rested, and is in capable training hands — this gives me confidence he can improve today.

Cons

The biggest knock is experience, as he is lightly raced, with only 4 efforts on his resume. Typically, I like to see more foundation, but he got a late start coming back from injury in Feb. Also, he gets a downgrade with his Jockey, as Johnny V elected to ride Code of Honor.

Summary – Wildcard horse could be feast or famine. Worth a saver win bet, especially if you are not sold on War of Will. Hitting the board is within the realm of possibilities if trip works out as planned, and he is as good as I think (talent-wise).

Distance Pedigree Grade– A – Derby pedigree is excellent as described in detail in my previous post found here:

Off track pedigree Grade – B plus – Ran great on a good track and has off track pedigree in his lines such as Gone West and….

Tacitus

For this guy to get up for the win, he would need a fast pace, as he got in both of his last two prep races. The set up would likely be a mid pack placing along the rail after the speed vacates, he can slide down and save all of the ground. The key for him is working out a trip from there, and navigating expected traffic.

Pros

What I like most is his ability to overcome adversity during the race, as he shrugged off bumping and trouble in the first turn of the Wood. Also, that race’s speed figures came back strong figure-wise. This guy moves way up on an off track with solid mudders in his pedigree including….

Hall of famer Bill Mott is due for a derby win, and this guy represents his best chance in quite some time. It took me a while to come around to this one’s talent, but upon further review, I am a fan. His best chance to win would be a fast pace, saving ground, and making a move on the turn.

Cons

Seasoning and foundation are the primary concerns, as he only has 4 races on the ledger. This horse is getting some buzz around the track and I fear his 8-1 becomes 6-1.

Summary – The one to fear. If he can work out a trip, he is dangerous. Must use in all exotics.

Distance Pedigree Grade – A – Derby pedigree is excellent with Tapit on top, as the distance should be no problem

Off track Grade pedigree – A plus – Has experience in the slop, and ran well. Bred for slop on both sides and the dam Close hatches was 2 for 2 in the slop. Has good wet pedigree with Pulpit, Unbridled, Storm Cat, Gone West, Seattle Slew all mixed in.

Pilot to Bombardier Wet Track Longshot

The Pilot to Bombardier segment focuses on a longshot that will be ignored by the betting public, but has a realistic chance at hitting the board, and blowing up the super.

The last two “Pilot” horses both hit the super, with 80-1 Instilled Regard coming in 4^th last year, and 40-1 Battle of Midway coming in 3^rd in 2017.

Let’s go with a wet track bomber today….

How about Cutting Humor? The off-track pedigree is spectacular. He has a line of wet track sires running through his bloodlines on both sire and dam side.

I have above average grades on all the sires noted below, and they are all in his family tree.

Sire side – First Samaria

Storm Cat, Dixieland band, Rahy, Blushing Groom, Fappiano

Dam Side

Pulpit/AP Indy/Seattle Slew, Mr Prospector, Phone Trick/Clever Trick

If you google Iron Maidens Wet track pedigree, you will see the reference point, and the inclusions on their list noted above, as upgrades on wet tracks.

Besides the wet track, there are also some other positives to note, including:

• Top notch trainer
• Set a track record in his last prep race
• Had some trouble in his Oaklawn prep race and I think this is a toss
• Pedigree for derby distance is excellent
• Gets local “hot” jockey who knows the circuit and had a great spring meet at Keenland
• Well rested

In summary, we should get every bit of the 30-1 shot as no one is mentioning him in the derby run-up, and he appears to be a true under-the-radar type that could improve on a wet track, and has the potential to hit the superfecta.

Q&A with Whitey

Whitey, who are the buzz or wise guy horses?

Based on what I read and hear during the extensive research process, it is definitely — By My Standards. The horse has been working well and the railbirds are chirping, which is contributing to the buzz. His odds will likely go down from the M/L odds of 15-1. Last year’s wise guy horse – My Boy Jack, was an absolute flop.

The other horse garnering lots of love is Code of Honor. He seems to be a trendy derby pick.

Whitey, who are the best mudders, based on breeding?

In order of preference:

• Cutting Humor
• Tacitus
• Game Winner
• Vekoma
• Improbable
• Tax
• War of Will
• Bodexpress

Whitey, you gave good insight on the one hole, what are the worst posts for the derby?

The 14 hole is the worst, evidenced by the last few years where Classic Empire and Mendelsohn both were wiped out in last two, respectfully. The 14 is the last stall in the main gate before the auxiliary gate starts. There is a big gap between the two gates, meaning between the 14 and 15 horses. Basically, the 14 horse can get wiped out by the 15, 16, 17, as they tend to veer left out of the gate to try and save ground. This doesn’t bode well for the Japanese horse as he went from 15 to 14 stall with the scratch of Omaha Beach.

The 2^nd worst is the outside 3 gates if the horse is a closer.

The 3^rd worse is the one hole if the horse is not a speed horse or stone closer.

Whitey, I am hearing rumors the 11 horse Haikal may scratch?

Yes, this is a possibility due to foot issue. The impact is good for War of Will as the one hole slot will be empty as all of the horses – 1 through 10 – would move over 1 slot. So, the 1 horse will break from the 2 stall, with the one stall empty.

Whitey, what horse do you fear may run big that you won’t have on your tickets?

Probably Tax. He is really bred well for the derby distance and has a great pedigree profile, and center of distribution. He too, should also like the slop.

Whitey, what do we make of Maximum Security?

Tough call. Lot to like, but many question marks. The bottom line is…. I have to trust one of my handicapping angles — which is anytime a horse with weak pace figures is jumping up in class, you should downgrade. Typically, the faster pace required with class hike, results in reduced speed fig. I may use defensively underneath as the scratch of Omaha Beach really helps him.

Whitey, what do you think of the other Baffert runners?

Legit, but you can’t play them all. Improbable is getting some pre-race buzz but the derby breeding is not ideal with City Zip on top. Though his wet track pedigree is great. Roadster has only beaten small fields but seems to have the more talent of the two. Overall, mixed feelings and the fact that I can’t decide on which one to use, will likely mean that I wind up excluding them both from exotics.

Whitey, your track record is the derby is marginal – WTF – when will we see a winner?

Yes, that is correct. The parade of favorites the last 6 years has dampened spirits and drained the wallet. With 20 horses signed on each year, all you can do is keep plugging away, follow the process, look for value, apply sound handicapping principles, do extensive research including pedigrees and race replays, and put the best thoughts on paper. Also, anytime you’re dealing with 20 horses in a starting gate, an element of luck is always in play.

Worst case, don’t bet the derby, and instead wait for the Belmont to try and take down a score.

Whitey, lastly, I have a small budget of $120 – how should I bet the derby?

Here is your blueprint:

• $40 win – War of Will
• $10 Saver win – Spinoff
• $2 exacta box – War of Will, Spinoff, Game winner = $12
• $2 exacta box – War of Will, Spinoff, Tacitus = $12
• $1 tri box – War of Will, Spinoff, Game Winner, Tacitus = $24
• 50 cent tri key = $10
  • Game Winner with the following horses in 2^nd/3^rd – War of Will, Spinoff, Tacitus, Cutting Humor, Maximum Security
• 50 cent tri key = $10
  • Tacitus with the following horses in 2^nd/3^rd – War of Will, Spinoff, Game Winner, Cutting Humor, Maximum Security

Total wagers $118

Good luck to all!!!

Whitey

I am lined up against him as he hasn’t traveled outside of CA and to me, is not battle tested against the best competition. Also, the trainer has not done well outside of the golden state and draws the widest post, stuck in the 14 hole.

I am looking for a fast pace as Mikinzie, Catholic Boy, and Mendelssohn should be out front early. The problem is the track is favoring front runners and horses closest to the rail, so its difficult to go with a stone closer today.

Here are the horses I like today:

7 – West Coast (5-1)

Baffert trained runner was not fully cranked in his return to the races and got a terrible race set up as he was pressed a long way, and the jockeys ride was very questionable. West Coast has the best figs going back to last year but there are questions on fitness. Trainer has win 3 of the last 4 classic races and I am hoping I am on the right one today as his other entrant will be bet as well. The deciding factor for me is race set up. He should be sitting right off the pace and can take the lead turning for home, to hold off the closers. The West Coast from last year would easily crush this mediocre field but the question is – is this the same horse as last year?

1 – Thunder Snow (12-1)

The horse that could get the best set up today is Thunder Snow. He will be tucked in on the rail and laying just off the fast pace up front. He chased a very fast pace in the jockey gold cup at Belmont and pounced but failed to hold off a long shot. I suspect he will get a similar set up here today and this horse is talented having won the Dubai world cup. His one experience at CD in the derby did not go well as he lost all chance and was pulled up that day, but that will only help backers secure a decent price today.

9 – Mendelssohn (12-1)

This horse is loaded with talent and today could be the day he puts it all together. He pressed a very fast pace at Belmont with fractions of 45 change and 109 flat for 3 quarters going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. To me, this a tell tale sign he is sitting on a prime effort but he can’t duel on the lead – he must sit just off the front runners. If I had more confidence in the jockey this one may have been my top pick and his key to success today will be in-race tactics and not go crazy up front. This was Whitey’s pick in this years Derby but he was foiled by the sloppy race conditions that day.

10 – Yoshida (10-1)

Turf runner tried the dirt last time and ran down the leaders at Saratoga. I really like this horse and turf runners have run well on the CD surface. If you are looking for a closer, this one is your guy. I will be watching intently on how the track is playing and if there is any hint that closers are fairing better than Friday, I may move this one up. In any event, super players will want to include this one as he could easily pass the tiring horses late for a minor award.

4 – Gunnevera (20-1)

Whitey has always liked the talent on this guy and will include defensively in exotics as he may clunk in the trifecta or superfecta.

Win bet – West Coast
Small Win bet – Thunder Snow

$2 Exacta box
West Coast, Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn

$2 Tri Box
Same

$1 Tri Key
West Coast over the 4 runners mentioned – 1,9,10,4