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Welcome to Derby 151 !!!!

I think we all know the derby is a complete crapshoot and now we are adding another wildcard into the mix with the weather and the uncertain track condition.

The forecast has been wrong all week so maybe they will be wrong again and the track will be dry or at least drying out.

We’ve had a few defections, which allowed the 21 horse, Baeza, to sneak into the field.

The main question relevant for every derby — and in more so this year — is the expected pace and how will it impact the results? This is always the wildcard. With at least 4 or 5 confirmed front runners on board, the pace should be solid and I would expect that the race plays fair from a pace standpoint. In other words, I expect the best horse to win with no front runner stealing it on an easy lead and no closer benefiting from a clear pace meltdown. Rodriguez coming out helps the chances of the front runners.

Here are my top picks and horses I will be keying on, in order of preference, based on the value we will be getting on the odds board:

12 – East Avenue (20-1) – Horse has tons of talent and is coming in a little under the radar with those ML odds. The Godolphin runner comes into this with ideal race spacing, and the foundation as a quality runner as a 2YO. I would have thought this horse would be getting more buzz but I am hearing people say he can’t get the distance, and he might be pace compromised as a need the lead horse. Both arguments are non-sense. The breeding for the distance is great as a son of Medaglia D’oro out of a Ghostzapper mare. Did he wobble a little in the stretch in the Blue Grass? Yes, but he changed to the wrong lead late which likely hurt him and the Keeneland track had been favoring closers all day. The fast fractions he set, and the track bias that day cost him the victory, and he only lost by a nose !! But, besides the talent, the biggest reason I like him is the tactical trip I envision for him, and that’s mainly the result of his IDEAL post position (12) for his running style. This guy is a speed ball and most handicpapers see him as the pace setter. I don’t. I see him laying in 2^nd flight and to the outside of the 1 horse, Citizen Bull. Most of the speed horses signed on have drawn to the inside and I can see him sitting just off the flank, with a great stalking spot. An ideal trip, he is sitting in 3^rd to the outside coming down the backstretch and taking the lead at the top of the stretch and if he is good enough, holding off the closers late. On the downside, his chances could be compromised if he breaks poorly or gets lost at the start. Also, a drying out track favorable to closers would hurt his chances. Overall, this guy a major player based on talent alone, and he is worth a win bet and worse case, I can see him hitting the board at a decent number. As of Friday, he was sitting on tote board at 35-1, so why not take a swing for the fences.

3 – Final Gambit (30-1) – This is a pure pedigree play !!! No doubt he will improve on the dirt as he is bred more for that surface than the synthetic. He will need some pace in front of him to improve his chances, but he has a HUGE late kick – in fact the best late pace figure in the field, and he should enjoy the longer Churchill stretch. The scratch of Rodriguez doesn’t help the pace scenario and that’s my only worry since he is a deep closer. Still, there are lots to like here, and trained by Brad Cox, I am fairly confident this horse is going to run a big race. Whether he can get up in time, not sure…but huge chance to hit the board here at a number. Others making the synthetic to derby switch have fared well such as Two Phils, Orb, Animal Kingdom etc., and with a pedigree to love the dirt I can see a big step forward. He was listed at around 15-1 on Friday. And, trained by Brad Cox, this kind of tote action is not a surprise.  

8 – Journalism (3-1) – The race favorite is rock solid and should get the coveted mid pack trip in the derby. In his last win in the SA Derby, he showed some versatility to overcome a tough trip, and he has the best speed figures in the race. If he shows up, and runs his race, the others will be running for 2^nd. Besides the talent, the biggest positive for him is the likely stalking or mid pack trip which gives him first run to pounce on the front runners and hold off the closers. Only knock on him is he has been facing small fields in California and since he has never run at Churchill, you can’t be 100% sure he will like the track. Also, has never run in the slop so that is a wildcard if it comes up wet. Tons of talent, and if he can avoid trouble, I would say he is a virtual lock to hit the board and at least run 3^rd.  

18 – Sovereignty – 5-1 – Dangerous runner though I don’t love the post for his running style. Will need to work out a trip to land in the winner’s circle. Tons of talent and my guess is that he wasn’t 100% cranked for the last as he had the points to get in. He has already proven that he likes the track as he won the Grade 3 Street Sense as a 2Yo over the strip. Another who will need pace, and I can see this guy rallying late to grab a share. And a win is not totally out of the question. With all the dead money in the pool, and no one really talking this guy up, he was floating at around 8-1 on Friday, which is an absolute screaming bargain !!

Some honorable mentions:

These horses just missed the cut and if you like them, fire away:

14 — Tiztastic – moves way up on a wet track – more on that below.

9 — Burnham Square – Love the horse but just don’t know how he will fare in a big field with a lot of kick back. Also, seems to be the buzz horse, and he looks great in the warmups. The clockers love him.

21 — Baeza – Certainly will be the wise guy horse and I expect the odds to drop on Saturday (after everyone realizes that he is the race). Drew into the field with the Rodriguez defection. Cost 1.2 mil and certainly looks to be a good one. Lots to like but leaning towards others for budgetary reasons.

5 –American Promise – Would greatly benefit from an off track, whose sire Justify romped in the Derby, and who is well known for passing the slop gene down to his progeny.

WAGERING Tips

So, how do we make some cash ??

Here are some options based on your risk profile.

Medium Risk/Medium Reward

If you have the budget, go 4 sawbucks each on my top 2 picks. So, $40 on each. $80 total. You are covered on the pace scenario as one is a front runner and one a closer. In a 20-horse field it is perfectly acceptable to bet on 2 horses to win, especially given the value offered with all the dead money in the pools. I learned this two years ago with a big saver bet on Mage. And, if it hits you are looking at $650 plus to take the entire family out for a nice steak dinner.

Low Risk/ High reward

Just do some exotics to spice things up and take down a score.

My favorite bets would be:

$2 exacta box – 3-8-12 – 12 bucks

$2 exacta box – 3-12-18 – 12 bucks

$1 tri box – 3-8-12-18 – $24 bucks

$48 total

And, budget permitting, feel free to go “double action” or all in on both bets for a total of $128.

His Mother’s a Mudder??

And then lastly, we will need one additional bet if the track comes up wet….let’s call it the Pappanick special for the Seinfeld fans out there….

The best mudder in the field is a horse who has never run in the slop before, but the breeding is fantastic to love the off going.

Our mudder is TIZTASTIC !!!! 14 horse. He was around 18-1 on Friday.

Here is the case for him:

This horse has never been over the slop but the pedigree says he will love it. Sire Tiz the Law has so much wet track influence….. sire Constitution has wet track influence with Distorted humor on the dam side. And Tiz the Law has tremendous off track pedigree with Tiznow, and hidden in there is go for gin who won the derby in the slop and also crafty prospector, another mudder. And Tiztastics dam side is loaded as well and has some really nice wet track pedigree. You are looking at Storm Cat and Fappiano buried deep on the mother’s side. And, Tiztastic’s 3rd dam, Strategic Maneuver, won the G1 Matron in the slop. Besides the pedigree, maybe the race sets up for him as he would also benefit from a fast pace and I like the pairing of Joel Rosario here, who fits the running style to a tee.

So, let’s add another sawbuck….a $10 win bet as a “saver” for a rainy day.

Good luck and if the racing gods aren’t with us….we will hope to recoup our losses in the Belmont.

Whitey