Capper's Corner

The Belmont Stakes returns to Saratoga for the 2^nd year in a row while Belmont Park gets a face lift, which means the distance is shortened to one and a quarter miles instead of the normal mile and a half.

Here is your Belmont Stakes rundown:

• Weather
• Pace
• My Selections
• Notes
• Wagering Suggestions

Weather

There is a chance rain will linger into early afternoon, but they are calling for skies to clear later in the afternoon, so my best guess is the track will have some moisture in it, probably a good track by post time, as they sealed it off on Friday, to try and prevent a muddy or sloppy surface for the big race.

Pace

When Todd Pletcher entered Crudo at the last minute it helped both favorites as there would have been a chance that Rodriguez wired the field with a slow uncontested pace. There is still a chance that A-Rod gets loose but I am hopeful Johnny V knows his purpose and won’t allow the race to be stolen. In fact, of the two front runners, I prefer Crudo, as the one to master the steal if the pace is slow. Overall, with the track playing towards speed, it’s entirely possible that one of the these two land in the winner’s circle.

Selections and predicted order of finish:

2 – Sovereignty – 2-1: I know the odds are not ideal and I think most blog observers know I am not a chalk guy, but in this case I don’t want to get too creative and overlook the obvious, which is….this is the best horse and he proved that in the Derby, and now he gets the coveted 5 weeks rest. From all accounts, he has been training well at Saratoga and arrived early to get adjusted to the track. If we assume the track will be playing (somewhat) fair and there is no speed bias, and the fractions aren’t dawdling, then he has every right to mow them down in the stretch. And, that’s the scenario I will be betting on in this rendition of the Belmont Stakes. As far as the odds, I think we will get no worse than 2-1 and it wouldn’t surprise me if we get 5-2 or 3-1 as the betting public might look at the Derby victory as a wet track fluke or a perfect pace set up. True, he got the set up, but I think the talent is there with this colt and the 5 week break will have him ready for his best. My preference would be for him not too to be as far back in this race with the expected slower pace, and to run it like a turf race, where the real race starts at the quarter pole, and the horse with the best closing kick wins. If the half is 49 and change and he is 20 lengths out of it then we can “blame the jockey” for the error in judgement, and a certain defeat.

6 – Baeza – 4-1: He certainly made a good impression in the Derby with a nice 3^rd place finish and a very strong gallop out. Overall, lots to like, and he should sit the trip and get first jump on the closers turning for home. The talent is there on this $1.2 million purchase so I would say he is the main danger to the top pick. But, my hunch is this guy is going to get hammered at the windows, and 4-1 turns into 3-1 or 7-2, and to me, that is not offering the value that I would need to make him a top pick. So, for example, given the choice of Sovereignty at 5-2 or 3-1 and this guy at 7-2 I would take Sovereignty as he is the better horse. Still, he is a must use in the exacta and if the two favorites don’t fire, he is the most likely beneficiary.

1 – Hill Road – 10-1: Horse ripped my heart out in the Peter Pan as I needed the 2^nd place runner for a large score, but nevertheless, I can’t hold grudges in handicapping, and I think this horse has tons of talent and would be a great pick in the Breeders Cup Classic later in the year, with some additional seasoning and time to develop. While the field he beat in last wasn’t the greatest, I think he has room to improve further, 3rd off the layoff and making his 3rd start as a 3YO. Trainer had a HUGE day on Friday and lures a top jock in Irad Ortiz. I can see this one rallying late for 3^rd and has an outside chance to land in the top 2 spots if things break his way, and the pace is fast. He would also improve if the track comes up wet. Including defensively based on talent alone, but tabbing for down the road and he may even have a future on the turf.

8 – Heart of Honor – 30-1: Longshot lost all chance at the start at the Preakness, and I am willing to give this guy another chance. I am expecting an improved effort as he has schooled at the gate and most importantly, the outside post is a huge bonus as he won’t be in the gate getting restless. He has the talent to be in the mix late, and I will draw a line through the last race in the hopes of a rebound. He also earned a 109 BRIS late pace number in the Preakness which makes him a great candidate to make a late run in the Belmont and ruin superfecta dreams.

Notes:

Journalism:

The race favorite is the ultimate boom or bust candidate in the Belmont. He could either win easily or finish up the track. Nothing in between. For me, I am taking a stand against. The last time a horse lost the Derby and won the Preakness and then won the Belmont was 20 years ago when Afleet Alex did it. 5 others were unsuccessful in that span (Curlin, Shackleford, Oxbow, Exaggerator, War of Will). So, there is something to the 3 races in 5 weeks taking a toll, not just in this scenario but even for horses taking the plunge and running in all three legs of the Triple Crown. All that stated, the clincher in my view was the toll that the Preakness may have taken on him. I went back and watched the replay, and he was being asked halfway into the race just to keep up with the leading group, and the finish was a huge exertion of energy. Larry Colmus (Announcer) not even halfway into the race: “Now being nudged along to keep up is Journalism…..nudged along here on the back stretch”. Not a great sign overall. Great horse, but there is a decent chance he fired his best shot in the Preakness, and when the jock asks the question late, he may not have much of a response if the tank is empty. Obviously tossing at my own risk, and it’s even a bigger risk tossing the race favorite, but that’s why they call it gambling. And, if I am wrong, I’ll tip my cap to the winner and call it a day.

Confidence Level:

I would have more confidence in the top pick if the track were playing fair – its not. It has been favoring speed. Can that change overnight, yes, but there is risk here. So, I am treading more lightly than usual in a race which I usually “send it in” on. For the pick to win, one of two things needs to occur: Jock realizes that his horse is up against a bias and takes proactive action to put him in the race earlier and closer to the leaders, or the track profile needs to change prior to the big race. Certainly, there is hope that can happen, especially if we get a drying out track as the day progresses, which often would tend to favor closers.

Wagering Suggestions:

• $50 win Sovereignty – 2 horse (Lets hope for 5-2 or better !!)
• 10 Exacta box – Sovereignty / Baeza (2-6) = $20
• $5 Exacta box – Sovereignty / Hill Road (2-1) = $10
• $2 Trifecta Key – Baeza up top – 6 with 1-2-8 with 1-2-8 = $12 (this is our track bias hedge if the 2 doesn’t win)
• 50 cent Superfecta – 2-6 with 2-6 with 1-8 with ALL = $10

$102 total

As always, Good luck !!

Ponycapper

****Undercard plays at the bottom****

With Sovereignty out, looks like a watered-down Preakness again this year and its obvious a change is needed to the structure of the Triple Crown as horses need more than 2 weeks’ turnaround time.

We will hope for change in the years to come and perhaps the traditionalists will finally cave.

The Preakness is not my strongest leg of the 3 races but let’s give it a go with some tepid bets, saving the large bankroll for the Belmont.

Journalism looks like a strong favorite and if he is 100% fit he should win easily. A famous jockey once said of horses coming off short layoffs: “Regardless of how he looked before the race I never really knew how much was in the tank until I asked him at the top of the stretch”. Lets hope the tank is half-full on SAT because he is by far the best horse in the race and if he shows up, he should romp vs. a weak field that resembles a Grade 2 or 3 race. We will play him as a back stop superfecta hedge in the event he rolls home in front as the strong 6-5 favorite.

One of my strongest angles in the toolshed is the fresh face in a field of donkeys, which usually works well in the maiden claiming races. The quality of this field is terrible and most of the horses on the TC trail don’t really excite me. So, let’s pivot and go in a different direction, pulling a page from this strong angle in the database.

The two fresh faces that intrigue me most are Clever Again and Heart of Honor.

8 – Clever Again (5-1) – Sold for half mil as a yearling and made a big splash as a 2YO in a maiden race at KEE early in his 2YO campaign. Then went to the sidelines and came back and won 2 easy races at Oaklawn. I think there is some hidden talent here and tons of stamina on the dam side which makes him a candidate to play spoiler. Love the post draw as well and may get the stalk and pounce trip, flanking the 1 and 3 early. If he was skipping the Preakness and heading to the Belmont I would be all over him as the pedigree says, “run all day” and will have a future on the turf. And, if he has the lead turning for home, the only one running by him is Journalism. Lots to like and he is a fresh face in a field devoid of talent, outside of the race favorite.

MUSH ALERT !!!

The biggest downside for this guy is that he could possibly be the proverbial wise guy horse, and my guess is we might see the so-called experts on NBC TV like Eddie O and Matty B make Clever Again their top pick, which will be the ultimate cooler for us. Randy Moss may even like him too. It’s almost a lock that the NBC crew will be all over this horse. And, if so, you can go ahead and tear up your tickets, and tell your buddies “We’ve been MUSHED” !!!!

4 – Heart of Honor (12-1) – Another fresh face and has been pointing to this race since his nose defeat in the UAE Derby. Connections have had success bringing horses over from Europe as they almost pulled a shocker in the 2014 BC Classic with Toast of NY. I like a few things here: First he always shows up. In 6 races he has never finished worse than 2^nd. Secondly, he has had some time off to develop and is well rested coming off a 6-week break. The breeding is there as well as Honor AP and the Scat Daddy dam side is the perfect combination of stamina and speed. And lastly, he added blinkers in the last race and was able to stay closer to the early pace as a result, which gives him a more tactical trip for the Preakness. No one is talking about this horse so I can see the 12-1 turning into 18-1 come post time. Will mainly play underneath but he is worth a saver win bet in the event he is primed for an A plus effort. Biggest downside might be the jock, as an unknown commodity.

The underneath horses to clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th could likely be Sandman (7) and Gosger (9). The Tik Tok crew really showed up in KY for Sandman and made him one of the worst betting propositions – without reason – since My Boy Jack about a decade ago. Any kind of pace develops and these are two clunk up candidates for the minors.

Betting the Preakness:

We will play it like this:

• $25 win bet – 8
• $10 win bet – 4
• $2 TRI box – 2-4-8 = $12
• $1 super 2 with 4-8 with 4-8-7-9 with 4-8-7-9 = $12
• $3 super 8 with 2 with 4 with 7-9 = $6

Total investment = $65

Undercard Plays

I love the undercard today and my strongest plays are below !!! Fire away !!!

GOOD LUCK !!!!

Race 8 – Chick Lang

• 10 – Touchy 8-1 – Gets dream set up with fast pace
• 7 – Faster Gator 6-1 – May change tactics and take on stalker role

Race 9 – Jim McKay

• 4 – Witty 10-1 – Greatest value of the day – loves soft turf – gets nice set up with the abundance of speed in race
• 1 – Boats a Rockin 20-1 – speed of speed, could hit the board at number.

Race 10 – Sir Barton

• 9 – Just a Fair Shake 6-1 – Benefits from fast pace – has the talent
• 8 – Authentic Gallop 8-1 – Only other closer in race

Race 11 – James Murphy

• 5 – End of Romance 9-2 – Will like footing
• 3 – Clock Tower 5-1 – May try to wire a field that is lacking pace

Welcome to Derby 151 !!!!

I think we all know the derby is a complete crapshoot and now we are adding another wildcard into the mix with the weather and the uncertain track condition.

The forecast has been wrong all week so maybe they will be wrong again and the track will be dry or at least drying out.

We’ve had a few defections, which allowed the 21 horse, Baeza, to sneak into the field.

The main question relevant for every derby — and in more so this year — is the expected pace and how will it impact the results? This is always the wildcard. With at least 4 or 5 confirmed front runners on board, the pace should be solid and I would expect that the race plays fair from a pace standpoint. In other words, I expect the best horse to win with no front runner stealing it on an easy lead and no closer benefiting from a clear pace meltdown. Rodriguez coming out helps the chances of the front runners.

Here are my top picks and horses I will be keying on, in order of preference, based on the value we will be getting on the odds board:

12 – East Avenue (20-1) – Horse has tons of talent and is coming in a little under the radar with those ML odds. The Godolphin runner comes into this with ideal race spacing, and the foundation as a quality runner as a 2YO. I would have thought this horse would be getting more buzz but I am hearing people say he can’t get the distance, and he might be pace compromised as a need the lead horse. Both arguments are non-sense. The breeding for the distance is great as a son of Medaglia D’oro out of a Ghostzapper mare. Did he wobble a little in the stretch in the Blue Grass? Yes, but he changed to the wrong lead late which likely hurt him and the Keeneland track had been favoring closers all day. The fast fractions he set, and the track bias that day cost him the victory, and he only lost by a nose !! But, besides the talent, the biggest reason I like him is the tactical trip I envision for him, and that’s mainly the result of his IDEAL post position (12) for his running style. This guy is a speed ball and most handicpapers see him as the pace setter. I don’t. I see him laying in 2^nd flight and to the outside of the 1 horse, Citizen Bull. Most of the speed horses signed on have drawn to the inside and I can see him sitting just off the flank, with a great stalking spot. An ideal trip, he is sitting in 3^rd to the outside coming down the backstretch and taking the lead at the top of the stretch and if he is good enough, holding off the closers late. On the downside, his chances could be compromised if he breaks poorly or gets lost at the start. Also, a drying out track favorable to closers would hurt his chances. Overall, this guy a major player based on talent alone, and he is worth a win bet and worse case, I can see him hitting the board at a decent number. As of Friday, he was sitting on tote board at 35-1, so why not take a swing for the fences.

3 – Final Gambit (30-1) – This is a pure pedigree play !!! No doubt he will improve on the dirt as he is bred more for that surface than the synthetic. He will need some pace in front of him to improve his chances, but he has a HUGE late kick – in fact the best late pace figure in the field, and he should enjoy the longer Churchill stretch. The scratch of Rodriguez doesn’t help the pace scenario and that’s my only worry since he is a deep closer. Still, there are lots to like here, and trained by Brad Cox, I am fairly confident this horse is going to run a big race. Whether he can get up in time, not sure…but huge chance to hit the board here at a number. Others making the synthetic to derby switch have fared well such as Two Phils, Orb, Animal Kingdom etc., and with a pedigree to love the dirt I can see a big step forward. He was listed at around 15-1 on Friday. And, trained by Brad Cox, this kind of tote action is not a surprise.  

8 – Journalism (3-1) – The race favorite is rock solid and should get the coveted mid pack trip in the derby. In his last win in the SA Derby, he showed some versatility to overcome a tough trip, and he has the best speed figures in the race. If he shows up, and runs his race, the others will be running for 2^nd. Besides the talent, the biggest positive for him is the likely stalking or mid pack trip which gives him first run to pounce on the front runners and hold off the closers. Only knock on him is he has been facing small fields in California and since he has never run at Churchill, you can’t be 100% sure he will like the track. Also, has never run in the slop so that is a wildcard if it comes up wet. Tons of talent, and if he can avoid trouble, I would say he is a virtual lock to hit the board and at least run 3^rd.  

18 – Sovereignty – 5-1 – Dangerous runner though I don’t love the post for his running style. Will need to work out a trip to land in the winner’s circle. Tons of talent and my guess is that he wasn’t 100% cranked for the last as he had the points to get in. He has already proven that he likes the track as he won the Grade 3 Street Sense as a 2Yo over the strip. Another who will need pace, and I can see this guy rallying late to grab a share. And a win is not totally out of the question. With all the dead money in the pool, and no one really talking this guy up, he was floating at around 8-1 on Friday, which is an absolute screaming bargain !!

Some honorable mentions:

These horses just missed the cut and if you like them, fire away:

14 — Tiztastic – moves way up on a wet track – more on that below.

9 — Burnham Square – Love the horse but just don’t know how he will fare in a big field with a lot of kick back. Also, seems to be the buzz horse, and he looks great in the warmups. The clockers love him.

21 — Baeza – Certainly will be the wise guy horse and I expect the odds to drop on Saturday (after everyone realizes that he is the race). Drew into the field with the Rodriguez defection. Cost 1.2 mil and certainly looks to be a good one. Lots to like but leaning towards others for budgetary reasons.

5 –American Promise – Would greatly benefit from an off track, whose sire Justify romped in the Derby, and who is well known for passing the slop gene down to his progeny.

WAGERING Tips

So, how do we make some cash ??

Here are some options based on your risk profile.

Medium Risk/Medium Reward

If you have the budget, go 4 sawbucks each on my top 2 picks. So, $40 on each. $80 total. You are covered on the pace scenario as one is a front runner and one a closer. In a 20-horse field it is perfectly acceptable to bet on 2 horses to win, especially given the value offered with all the dead money in the pools. I learned this two years ago with a big saver bet on Mage. And, if it hits you are looking at $650 plus to take the entire family out for a nice steak dinner.

Low Risk/ High reward

Just do some exotics to spice things up and take down a score.

My favorite bets would be:

$2 exacta box – 3-8-12 – 12 bucks

$2 exacta box – 3-12-18 – 12 bucks

$1 tri box – 3-8-12-18 – $24 bucks

$48 total

And, budget permitting, feel free to go “double action” or all in on both bets for a total of $128.

His Mother’s a Mudder??

And then lastly, we will need one additional bet if the track comes up wet….let’s call it the Pappanick special for the Seinfeld fans out there….

The best mudder in the field is a horse who has never run in the slop before, but the breeding is fantastic to love the off going.

Our mudder is TIZTASTIC !!!! 14 horse. He was around 18-1 on Friday.

Here is the case for him:

This horse has never been over the slop but the pedigree says he will love it. Sire Tiz the Law has so much wet track influence….. sire Constitution has wet track influence with Distorted humor on the dam side. And Tiz the Law has tremendous off track pedigree with Tiznow, and hidden in there is go for gin who won the derby in the slop and also crafty prospector, another mudder. And Tiztastics dam side is loaded as well and has some really nice wet track pedigree. You are looking at Storm Cat and Fappiano buried deep on the mother’s side. And, Tiztastic’s 3rd dam, Strategic Maneuver, won the G1 Matron in the slop. Besides the pedigree, maybe the race sets up for him as he would also benefit from a fast pace and I like the pairing of Joel Rosario here, who fits the running style to a tee.

So, let’s add another sawbuck….a $10 win bet as a “saver” for a rainy day.

Good luck and if the racing gods aren’t with us….we will hope to recoup our losses in the Belmont.

Whitey 

Welcome to Belmont 2024

We have 10 runners today and this year’s rendition sees a venue change to Saratoga as Belmont is down for repairs.

This is a major development as:

The distance has been reduced to one mile and one quarter which is a quarter mile less than the normal distance for this race.

Additionally the tighter turns at Saratoga replace the wider sweeping turns at Belmont.

What does it all mean…probably not much but I will be reducing reliance on distance pedigree due to the shorter race.

Here is how I break down the race:

I am going to toss the two horses who ran on derby day and Preakness day, as its really tough to perform at a high level in the 3^rd race in 5 weeks. SO Mystic Dan and Seize the Grey are downgraded.

Leaning against the two Pletcher outsiders in Antiquarian and Protective, as they seem a cut below and represent the barns 2^nd stringers. Protective has an outside chance to hit the board as a longshot as he had a tough trip in the Peter Pan. If this was a mile and a half I would probably upgrade both runners chances.

The Wine Steward is a gritty NY bred that always seem to show up but he may be a cut below these and I don’t think the stretch out in distance does him any favors. He does have a nice win over the track. But, leaning against.

And, that brings me to Mindframe….who epitomizes boom or bust outcomes. This is a tough call because I can see him winning by 6 or getting trounced, probably nothing in between. He is a buzz horse, hails from a good barn, and has tons of talent, so it would be dangerous to exclude this guy. But, I am probably leaning against even though it’s a tough call. This would only be his 3^rd start and he really beat a soft allowance field last time while setting comfortable fractions. In his debut, he was impressive and the speed fig was awesome but he got the perfect trip that day. To me it kind of feels like a sucker bet and the fact he is coming off Lasix gives me pause to back him at a short price, as he will be way overbet.

As far as race set up I don’t see much speed in the race on paper so that will benefit the front runners and speed did fairly well on the Friday card.

Advantage front runners and stalkers.

Which leads me to my top 2:

I am going to go Dornach (6 horse, 15-1 ML) here as I think his trip in Derby was brutal and has every right to bounce back today with his tactical speed advantage. Has tons of talent and he can be either on the lead or sit right off the 1 horse. He benefits the most with today’s reduced distance in the Belmont, from the normal distance.

My 2^nd choice is Resilience (2 horse, 10-1 ML) as he had showed signs of improvement in the Derby, making an 8 wide move on the final turn. He is definitely headed in the right direction since the blinkers were added and I really like the potential for a great trip, with tactical speed in 2^nd flight while saving ground. He will be pushing his limits for distance here but he is another that benefits from the distance reduction at Saratoga. Trainer is not one to take triple crown shots so part of the logic is putting faith in the connections and their level of confidence.

Rounding out the top 4:

Sierra Leone (9 horse, 9-5 ML) was a tough luck loser in the derby and gets a huge jockey upgrade today as Prat is the best rider in the country. May not get the dream set up with a slower pace today but overall he should be running late, and is the deserving favorite. Main danger to ruin our Belmont party.

And then to round out the super, Honor Marie (8 horse, 12-1 ML) can definitely clunk up for 4^th, and has an outside chance to blow up the board in a meltdown scenario. He had a terrible trip and gets a big jock upgrade. Has tons of hidden talent just needs a better trip and pace set up to make noise.

Wagering:

Big win bet on Dornach

Small win bet on Resilience

And lets box up a trifecta with the 4 runners – 2-6-8-9

Good Luck

Whitey

Looks like we have another watered-down Preakness field and if we are looking at this objectively, it is not a great betting race.

Muth was the ML favorite and he is SCRATCHED.

Along with his defection, the pace should be slower. The only speed horses left in the field are the Baffert horse, Imagination, and Just Steel.

Those two should hook up early, but will give the edge to Imagination to win the pace battle.

The best horse in the field is Mystik Dan who comes off a dream trip in the derby. He will be the deserving favorite.

The horse with an outside chance to ruin the party at a price is Uncle Heavy. He had a dreadful trip in the Wood as he broke slow and was wide that day when the rail was the place to be. I can see him running well, and with a top Jock on board, I envision he will ride the rails and hope to sneak through at the top of the lane if the pace falls apart. We won’t get the ML price of 20-1, but anywhere in the 10 or 12 to 1 range should be fair.

I will be treading lightly and live to fight another day, but for now, let’s do a small to medium win bet on the deuce, Uncle Heavy, and then will do a TRI BOX 2-5-9 – Uncle Heavy, Mystik Dan, Imagination.

Note, there is a decent chance of rain early in the day, and if we get any kind of rain past 4 pm then the track condition could be muddy or good.

That would actually help the 2 as he has two wins in the slop. If the track is wet I would advise doing an extra trifecta bet with the 2-5-8 box as the 8 would really move up in the off-going.

Good Luck

Ponycapper

Past Derby’s offer a window into lessons learned.

In the 2018 Derby, I had some degree of confidence that Justify and Good Magic would finish 1-2 but really had no idea on who would round out the 3^rd and 4^th spots.

I took a “SUPER” stab that day with Instilled Regard as a huge longshot to run 3^rd and used the all button for 4^th. The $17 ticket seemed like a long shot in its own right, and it turned out to be a losing ticket, but when it came out Justify, Good Magic, Audible and Instilled Regard, and paid 19K for a one dollar ticket, my lessons learned were:

1. The super is the way to go when you have a lock favorite to finish first because the payouts can be fairly “generous” even if the 2^nd choice finishes 2^nd.
2. And the All button is a great tool  to create value, especially when a nice longshot runs up for 4^th

So, keeping this in mind, and instead of taking stabs on win bets on other horses, lets throw in a super keying the favorite, with the all button used for 4^th and we will also go with the more traditional SUPER KEY.

I believe Fierceness is the best horse in the race and one scenario that makes the most sense to me is Fierceness extends his lead turning for home, crushing the hearts of the other front runners, and setting up the race for closers to come running late and clunk up for 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th. This assumes he breaks well and runs his “A” race.

The most obvious horse to run 2^nd would be Sierra Leone, as I think he is a monster horse.

So, we are looking at a pretty chalky exacta with 2-1 over 9-2, and perhaps that pays 50 bucks for a deuce.

Lets swing for the fences and try to turn superfecta dreams into reality with a few economical tickets.

For the ALL BUTTON SUPER, lets go with:

1. Fierceness
2. Sierra Leone
3. Honor Marie and Catching Freedom
4. ALL

This will cost $34

Ticket looks like:

$1 Super — 17 with 2 with 4-7 with ALL

Then let’s do a SUPER KEY

Here, we will key Fierceness up top and use 4 underneath

The 3 I like most are the ones listed above as all 3 should be closing. And, then lets throw in a bomb in Society Man who is absolutely loving the track at CD.

$1 Super Key:

• 17 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20
• Cost is $24

If one of the above supers hits, perhaps we turn $58 bucks into 2K.

To recap from previous post:

My top 3

Fierceness, Sierra Leonne, Honor Marie

DO TRI BOX with these 3 and then sprinkle in the supers noted above.

Good Luck

Ponycapper

Let’s try and parlay two well meant favorites in the Derby with some standouts in the OAKS to try and juice up the payouts, and make it back to back years of Oaks-Derby double success.

The two Oaks standouts for me are:

13 – Just FYI

11 – Ways and Means

Both of these horses would move way up on an off track and even on a dry track are still the main contenders and horses to beat in the 150^th running of the Oaks.

Just FYI’s return race in the Ashland last month was clearly a prep for today’s race as she was absolutely cold on the tote board in a suspect field. She raced wide all the way around the course and was 4-5 wide turning for home. There was an extreme rail and speed bias the first few days of the Keeneland meet and she was compromised on both fronts.

Just FYI has 2 Grade 1 wins on the resume including the Breeders cup last year. The horse moves way up on an off track as she has a win in the slop and has tremendous off track breeding.

Feels like 9-2 is a bit of a gift so perhaps the number is 7-2 come post.

Ways and Means had one of the worst Irad rides last time at GP. She made a 6 wide middle move in the race, a move that rarely works out or results in a victory. She did run well to finish 2^nd, and is one of the most talented fillies in the field. You can also make an argument that the race was a glorified prep with the Oaks being the target all along, and with a new pilot in Tyler G, I can see her having a great chance turning for home.

Some underneath horses to consider are the 5, Thorpedo Anna, and a longshot filly, the 10 Into Champagne.

My official Oaks order of finish predictions:

1. 13 – Just FYI
2. 11 – Ways and Means
3. 5 – Torpedo Anna
4. 10 – Into Champagne

So Lets play a weighted Oaks-Derby Double as follows:

Top choices:

Just FYI and Fierceness

2^nd choices

Ways and Means and Sierra Leone

Structure as follows:

• $25 double – Just FYI / Fierceness
• $15 double – Just FYI / Sierra Leone
• $15 double – Ways and Means / Fierceness
• $10 double – Ways and Means / Sierra Leone

If we connect, the $65 investment should net anywhere between $400 to $600 depending on the winning combo.

To me, this is a nice alternative for creating value if you are considering straight win bets on either of the two Derby favorites.

Good Luck !!

As of this writing, we are more than 3 weeks out from Derby 2024 and I am taking a different approach with an early post for this year’s Derby.

Primarily, the change in tactics is due to the fact that I have already made up my mind on the race, as there are two standouts that will likely be co-favorites and look like locks to hit the board, barring any late scratches or defections.

And secondly, there is a longshot I like to hit the board and would like to avoid paralysis by analysis, and risking changing my mind, or somehow thinking that a less than ideal post position or bad workout would change my mind.

And lastly, it’s safe to assume the “early call” is a sign of confidence. Or, possibly a donkey move in the worst case scenario. So, if you are an avid blog follower, double the bets because for the first time, let’s go on record well in advance and post this year’s derby TRIFECTA !!!

The three horses most likely to hit the board are:

1 – Fierceness – Smashing of winner of FLA Derby looked like a monster crushing his foes that day and he has an advantage of being forwardly placed, and avoiding trouble. In my mind, he is the most likely winner. Projected off odds (5-2).

2 – Sierra Leone – This horse was very impressive in the blue grass as he rallied from well of the pace when speed was holding all day, and the rail was the best place to be (he was wide). The 2.3 million purchase could give trainer Chad Brown his first Derby victory, but will need to work out a trip. Projected off odds (3-1).

3 – Honor Marie – I have been high on this horse since last fall and he will come into the race as a live longshot. The breeding is fantastic for the derby distance, and he absolutely loves it at Churchill, having notched 2 wins from 3 starts, including the KY Jockey club stakes. He ran a credible 2^nd in the LA Derby and is poised to take a giant leap forward on derby day. He will be my key horse in the exotics to hit the board underneath at a big price. Projected off odds (25-1).

In the event one of the 3 scratch before the race, my alternate selection will be:

Catching Freedom – Winner of the LA Derby has much underrated Constitution as his sire and Brad Cox should have him ready to run. Projected off odds (12-1)

Obviously no post position numbers yet but my wagers will look something like:

• BIG TRI BOX
  • Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Ex box
  • Fierceness, Honor Marie
  • Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
• Small win bet:
  • Honor Marie

Given that one of the two favorites are expected to win, I would tread lightly on win bets and look to capture value with the EX or TRI with Honor Marie, or any long shot that you might like.

Good Luck!!!

Ponycapper

Race 2

I like a lot:

11 – Mondego (10-1)

Comments:

I marked this one as a future turf star back in FEB but he has disappointed as of late. Still, I think this one may be primed for a big one in a field lacking pace. Maybe he tries to steal it.

Betting this one to win and place.

Predicted Order of Finish:

No clue, just betting the 11, maybe throw 6 and 7 in exacta box

Race 3 – Dirt Mile

I like a lot:

7 – Algiers (6-1)

************UPDATE SCRATCHED — NO PLAY*******

Comments:

Horse has banked 2.9 million on the dirt and it feels like the last was just a prep. He will have to beat the favorite Cody’s Wish, who may be vulnerable around two turns. Overall, feels like a watered down rendition with the scratch of practical move and not a ton of speed signed on.

I’ll play the 7 to win with a nice exacta box with the 3 Cody’s Wish

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Algiers ******SCRATCH*****

3 – Cody’s Wish

6 – Skippy Longstocking

UPdate

EX box 3-6

Race 4 – F&M TURF

Slight Lean:

1 – In Italian (4-1)

9 – Didia (8-1)

Comments:

Starting on the hill will benefit this mare as she can carry her speed further, in a field that lacks pace. If she can set a comfortable pace, she is the most likely winner.

My upset special horse is the 9, Didia. Could get the perfect set up laying off the pace and its hard to ignore that she is 9 for 11 lifetime on the turf, and likes it firm. She is a major Player and will be using in the multi race gimmicks. The best EURO looks to be the 6 Inspiral as she has banked 2.6 million and might be tough to beat. I also like a flyer in the 7 Lindy at 12-1 to hit the board. If she was 4 instead of 3 and had soft ground she would be tough. Still, can make noise late.

Win bet 1

Ex box 1-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – In Italian

9 – Didia

6 – Inspiral

7 – Lindy

Race 5 – F&M SPRINT

Strong Opinion, but not great betting race, I like:

1 – Good Night Olive (6-5)

Comments:

BY far, the stand out of the day but I wont be using to win. I will look to single in the multi’s. She is a 7F dirt specialist and should beat this mediocre field. She is 8 for 11 lifetime and has beat some tough competition. Would love her more if she wasn’t on rail. I will try and make some money with my 2^nd choice running up into the exacta and that will be the 5 Kirstenbosch, who should really get a nice set up and the extra distance will definitely help her style. The addition of blinkers really helped two back. Outisde chance to upset but will play her in combination with the favorite in exactas. The 7 society is a main danger to wire the field as 2^nd choice if the 3 horse doesn’t try for the lead.

EX 1 – 5

Ex box 1-5

TRI Straight

1 with 5 with 7

1 with 5 with all

Saver win bet 5

Predicted Order of Finish:

1 – Good Night Olive

5 – Kirstenbosch

7 – Society

Race 6 – TURF MILE

No strong opinion, looks wide open, tread lightly, save bankroll for later

Slight lean to:

3 – Casa Creed

Comments:

Will be pace dependent but I like him rolling late to mow them all down. He is the best the US has to offer. Feels like the ML is inflated so don’t be surprised if he is 5-1 come post. MY longshot flyer in this race will be the 1 Shirl Speight who could hit the board at a massive price (30-1 ML). Johnny V jumps on and it feels like a ground saving trip will improve the chances. The 10 Songline (5-2) could be a tough customer from Japan and the most likely winner of the group of favorites. The 14 master of the seas drew a tough post but has a ton of talent and is a danger.

Treading lightly overall as EUROs dominate this race but will give a look to a small win bet on Casa Creed.

And a what the heck very small TRI Box – 1-3-10-14

Predicted Order of Finish:

3 – Casa Creed

10 – Songline

1 – Shirl Speight

14 – Master of the Seas

Race 7 – DISTAFF

Strong Opinion here, I like:

9 – Clairiere (4-1)

6 – Search Results (5-1)

Could be a wise guy horse and get bet down as it looks obvious on paper that she might get the best set up with all the speed signed on. Won’t be surprised if she is 5-2 come post but I do feel she has the best chance of winning, and is worth a hefty wager. The 6 Search results is capable on her best day and she can be tactical which may work to her advantage. If the pace is fast, don’t be surprised if the 7 Wet Paint runs a big one at 10-1. The set up will be ideal and will be running late to hit the board.

Win bet 9

Big EX BOX – 6-9

TRI BOX – 6-7-9

Predicted Order of Finish:

9 – Clairiere

6 – Search Results

7 – Wet Paint

Race 8 – TURF

I like:

8 – Up to the Mark (5-1)

Comments:

I think the extra distance helps here and I don’t think we have seen this ones true potential. Yes, the EUROs excel in this race but at a square price of 5-1 I will run to the windows and hope for the best. I will take a flyer with Japanese horse Shahryar (15-1) to blow up the exotics. Has banked over 8 million and is one of the best in Japan. He likes it firm too which adds to the intrigue. The 9 Mostahdaf (5-2) has the best chance of the EUROS and will use him defensively in exotics. A longshot that could hit the board is the 10 Adhamo (30-1) who is a Brown runner that is 3^rd off the layoff and has some good races last year that might make him a danger.

Win bet 8

Ex box 1-8

Small tri box – 1-8-9-10

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Up to the Mark

1 – Shahryar

9 – Mostahdaf

10 – Adhamo

Race 9 – Classic

Kind of feels like an all race as things might get crazy.

But, I will give a lean to:

8 – Ushba Tesoro (4-1)

Comments:

Winner of 7 of 8 and 9 million on the dirt feels like a stand out and offers tremendous value at 4-1. The Japanese runner could be boom or bust and perhaps it’s a sucker bet, as it may look too easy. If he doesn’t win, then I think its bombs away. The 5 Dermo Sotogake (20-1) was my derby pick and he hasn’t run since that dreadful performance. He fought through a foot issue which kept him on the sideline and I am not 100% sure he is fit and ready to go. Still, the talent is there and wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a big one. Another longshot with a great chance to hit the board is the 10 Dreamlike (30-1). This guy has yet to unleash his full talent and I have good feeling he will run a big one at a huge number. He would be my pick to win this race next year as he has all the makings of a horse who will get better with seasoning and age. The same connections won this race at SA with Vino Rosso and on talent, this one may not be too far behind, even though it doesn’t look as such on paper. The 13 Proxy may run decent and hit the board.

Overall, looks like a race with overhyped favorites and marginal 3 YOs running on reputation vs softer competition in their running lines.

Win bet 8

Small saver win bet 5

Ex box 5-8-10

TRI – I will key 8 with 5-10-13 with all

Predicted Order of Finish:

8 – Ushba Tesoro

5 – Dermo Sotogake

10 – Dreamlike

13 – Proxy

Race 10 – Turf Sprint

Good luck figuring this one out. I will hit the ALL button and move on. Feels like 8 horses can win and of those with a chance I like the 1,3,5,7, 14

Take the race off and enjoy the madness of a longshot crossing the wire first.

Race 11 – Sprint

Looks like a chalk fest to end the day and I wont be doing anything crazy. The 7 might wire the field in a paceless race. But will look to be alive with the 4 logicals here.

Predicted Order of Finish:

7 – Speed Boat Beach

8 – Elite Power

6 – The Chosen Vron

2 – Dr. Schievel

Astute blog followers know that the Belmont Stakes is my favorite race of the year as it usually presents great opportunities to make some cash.

We’ve had success over the years and the trend continued last year with the cold deck exacta.

Lets get right to the picks, and my top 4 predicted order of finish:

2 – Tapit Trice – 3-1: The ML seems low and I think we get 4-1 or better as tons of money will come in on Forte and Angel of Empire. The main mistake many cappers make is not being able to toss out a bad race and yes, he threw in a clunker in the Derby. But, all along, this one was being pointed to the Belmont and my hunch is he didn’t like the track at Churchill. But, probably the biggest reason I am on him is the grinding running style — he has that one pace style that favors the marathon Belmont runners and reportedly he has been working well on the track. Has the breeding for the distance by Tapit and stamina on the dam side. To me, the last was a toss, and I had him tabbed as my Belmont winner back in March, so I am not jumping ship at the last minute in a so-so Belmont field.  Only negative is the post draw as he doesn’t like the kick back but in a long race I can see Luis working his way to the outside down the long backstretch to mitigate. Lets take the lay up and the 10 dollar mutual return, and call it a day.

9 – Red Route One – 15-1: Doesn’t check many of the boxes I look for in a Belmont runner having raced a ton in 2023 and has that closing style that’s over-rated in the Belmont. But, as I dig deeper, and go back into the time machine of Belmont Lessons learned — He fits the profile of a Sir Winston – who I liked in the Belmont but didn’t pull the trigger as I was afraid the closing style would hurt him. Could be similar set up, where he is closer to the pace like he was in the Preakness, and explodes late. That’s exactly what Sir Winston did and he fits the same late pace profile – very strong late pace figs and the race set up that day like a turf race where the fastest finisher won. And to top it off, the pedigree is A++ for the distance. Gun Runner up top with stamina influences Tapit and Kris S on the dam side. And, we get Rosario in the saddle, the same jock who rode Sir Winston to victory in 2018.

6 – Forte – 5-2: Likely favorite was a late derby scratch with a foot issue. Probably the one to beat but coming off the layoff may be overbet. Not sure the running style works to his advantage with the uncertain pace scenario. But probably the biggest red flag for me is the breeding. I think the mile and a half is not in the wheel house, as Violence has the profile of a one turn miler as a sire. Yes, he has some stamina on the bottom with Blame but as the race favorite, there is no way I can pick this one on top with the question marks with pedigree, fitness, and running style. Could clunk up for 3^rd and that’s the way I’ll play him.

3 – Arcangelo – 8-1: Like the Peter Pan win but honestly the field was pretty weak, but he did look great doing it and loved the grit in the stretch. Breeding is good for the Belmont distance and I think he can get a share of the money here if the trip works out. Great underneath candidate.

Other runners:

The 1 looks to be a possible rabbit for his two stable mates. If he had Lasix on I might be intrigued as Ortiz is a master on front runners. I may be inclined to throw underneath on some tickets as he may hang around and hit the board, Big step up in class and not sure he is ready at this level but I still wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the board.

The 4 got a gift in the Preakness when the jock of coffeewithchris ceded the easy lead to him. He will take action at the window being a Baffert runner but I am not a fan of the win in the watered-down Preakness.

The 8 Angel of Empire will be way overbet here as the distance is not ideal with To Honor and Serve and Carson City on the bottom of the pedigree. I’ll be playing against as many Derby lovers will be coming back for an encore bet.

The 7 has all the makings of a wise guy horse who will take play. I am not really a fan but wouldn’t talk anyone off him.

The 5 doesn’t belong and may try to add some spice to the pace.

Wagering

Here is how I would spend 100 bucks

$60 to win 2

$10 saver to win on 9

$10 EX box 2-9

$2Tri box 2-9-6

Good Luck !!