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Past Derby’s offer a window into lessons learned.

In the 2018 Derby, I had some degree of confidence that Justify and Good Magic would finish 1-2 but really had no idea on who would round out the 3^rd and 4^th spots.

I took a “SUPER” stab that day with Instilled Regard as a huge longshot to run 3^rd and used the all button for 4^th. The $17 ticket seemed like a long shot in its own right, and it turned out to be a losing ticket, but when it came out Justify, Good Magic, Audible and Instilled Regard, and paid 19K for a one dollar ticket, my lessons learned were:

1. The super is the way to go when you have a lock favorite to finish first because the payouts can be fairly “generous” even if the 2^nd choice finishes 2^nd.
2. And the All button is a great tool  to create value, especially when a nice longshot runs up for 4^th

So, keeping this in mind, and instead of taking stabs on win bets on other horses, lets throw in a super keying the favorite, with the all button used for 4^th and we will also go with the more traditional SUPER KEY.

I believe Fierceness is the best horse in the race and one scenario that makes the most sense to me is Fierceness extends his lead turning for home, crushing the hearts of the other front runners, and setting up the race for closers to come running late and clunk up for 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th. This assumes he breaks well and runs his “A” race.

The most obvious horse to run 2^nd would be Sierra Leone, as I think he is a monster horse.

So, we are looking at a pretty chalky exacta with 2-1 over 9-2, and perhaps that pays 50 bucks for a deuce.

Lets swing for the fences and try to turn superfecta dreams into reality with a few economical tickets.

For the ALL BUTTON SUPER, lets go with:

1. Fierceness
2. Sierra Leone
3. Honor Marie and Catching Freedom
4. ALL

This will cost $34

Ticket looks like:

$1 Super — 17 with 2 with 4-7 with ALL

Then let’s do a SUPER KEY

Here, we will key Fierceness up top and use 4 underneath

The 3 I like most are the ones listed above as all 3 should be closing. And, then lets throw in a bomb in Society Man who is absolutely loving the track at CD.

$1 Super Key:

• 17 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20
• Cost is $24

If one of the above supers hits, perhaps we turn $58 bucks into 2K.

To recap from previous post:

Early Call on Derby 2024 Sign of Confidence (or donkey move)?

My top 3

Fierceness, Sierra Leonne, Honor Marie

DO TRI BOX with these 3 and then sprinkle in the supers noted above.

Good Luck

Ponycapper