Capper's Corner

Ponycapper selections for January 2nd

Wager type – Value Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 3
Horse Name – Unseen Glory
Horse Number – 4
Morning Line – 8-1
Condition – 8K NW3L

Rationale/ Key to race _ Horse has shown ability at Tampa previously and in those starts he was bet down to under 3-1 and so 8-1 is a gift here, and hoping to get 5-1 off odds

Angle 1 – 2nd off layoff. Had a prep at GP and should move forward
Angle 2 – Horses who he lost to at Tampa have come back and won multiple starts
Angle 3 – Has a good record at Tampa, with 7 in the money in 12 tries
Angle 4
Negative notes – The pace may work against him as there is not much speed in race and he likes to close. The jockey will need to place him more forwardly.
Favorite Vulnerability angle – The favorite is the 7 With Class. This horse is making his 2nd lifetime start at tampa and flopped in first try, which was in 2011. He has no recent races and fitness is a concern. Horses making starts at tampa need to be fit. Favoirtes during December have bitten the dust on many occasions who fit this pattern: Shipping in from Delaware, no recent race at tampa, hasn’t raced in last 3 months (September in this case). Also, the trainer Pecoraro does not typically have them cranked first at tampa. He excels 2nd over tampa. Also, in last 13 attempts at layoff of 61-180 days trainer is 0 for 13.

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $20 win 4
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $5 exacta box 4-6
Total wagered – $30

Wager type – Longshot Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 7
Horse Name – All Thrill
Horse Number – 2
Morning Line – 20-1
Condition – Mdn 25 Turf

Rationale/ Key to race – This is a wide open bottom maiden turf race with a vulnerable favorite. Lets take a shot on a first turfer who is bred for turf at a big price.

Angle 1 – great turf breeding by son of storm cat
Angle 2 – In last year, Trainer shows a 15% win rate and a ROI of $7.22
Angle 3 – Jockey and trainer are 1 for 1 at meet.
Angle 4
Negative notes – There are a couple other longshot horses – the 3 and 1 who have equally good breeding and could spoil the party.
Favorite Vulnerability angle – The favorite is the 10 Rolling Rate, 2-1. A Sheppard horse who hasn’t raced in a year. Layoff horses are the worst favorites in racing. In his only turf race in July of 2011, he finished 3rd to a nice stakes horse named Nerfertini.

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $15 win 2
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $1 exacta box 1-2-3, $5 exacta box 2-10
Total wagered – $31

Wager type – Spot Play
Track – Tampa
Race Number – 8
Horse Name – Put to the Test
Horse Number – 1
Morning Line – 15-1
Condition – Allow opt claim

Rationale/ Key to race – There is no speed in the race except my selection. Could be a wire job.
Angle 1 – Lone speed and class of field
Angle 2 – Best pace numbers and class
Angle 3 – Trainer turf to dirt 29% last year
Angle 4
Negative notes – Very tough field. Anything is possible
Favorite Vulnerability angle –

Wagers
Win bet amount – – $10 win 2
Exacta, Trifecta wagers – $5 exacta box 2-9. $1 Trifecta key 9 over the 1-2-3
Total wagered – $26