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I will open with my stat of the week – In the last 36 years, only 6 favorites have won the Belmont. There has to be something to this and I am beginning to think it may be at least another year for a triple crown winner. I know, I know – I predicted Pharoah to win the TC as part of my derby analysis. And, now I am not so sure after researching the pedigree of the horse on the doorstep of greatness.

I see 2 possible scenarios for the race. Scenario 1 – AP wins by 10 and is crowned a racing god. Or, he flops in the stretch like a 3 legged donkey. I don’t think there is a tweener.

Scenario 1 is pretty straight-forward. AP sits off a pace set by Materiality gets a perfect stalking trip – takes the lead turning for home and just extends his lead like he has done in many of his races, winning going away, perhaps by 10.

The other scenario – AP either sits off the pace or is on lead by himself or is involved in somewhat contested pace – takes the lead turning for home and hits the wall when challenged by another foe, staggering home, perhaps 3^rd at best.

Racing fans will love scenario 1. Savvy bettors will love scenario 2.

Here are 5 reasons I am slightly leaning to Scenario 2, and the negatives for AP:

1. Gets ganged up on early by Materiality and the one horse. Ask Jerry Baily why he had rock hard ten in smarty Jones’ grill at the half mile pole in 2004, when that horse was a dead closer.
2. Pedigree limitations – While Pioneer of the Nile had staying ability, his dam side looks weak for a mile and a half. Don’t like his high dosage (4.33). Astute pedigree cappers understand there is a huge difference between a mile and quarter and mile and a half.
3. Preakness was a fluke – helped by a sloppy track and an extremely weak field. Thought his derby was not overly impressive and the last 2 quarters were extremely slow – and he benefited (GREATLY) from a speed favoring track that day.
4. Other than the derby, hasn’t really been in a dog fight, so if he is challenged in late stages will he have the will to fight on, or will he toss in the towel?
5. History – as I mentioned only 6 of 36 favorites have won. Part of it probably attributable to the new paradigm of winning Belmont runners – rest and skipping the Preakness. This will be his 4^th race in 8 weeks.

Scenario 2 – which I will dub the Belmont Bonanza scenario – has the potential for a brinks job if AP really hits the wall and finishes out of the money, sending the bridge jumpers home with empty pockets and sending racing fans home with shattered dreams and hearts, once again.

I am predicting the early pace as follows. Materiality will jump out to the lead from the outside or at least will try to pin AP to his inside. My guess is AP lets him go and then AP will stalk from outside. The wildcard is the one horse. Trainer throwing some short drills in him which to me says he may be gunning for lead from inside post. There is not much speed on paper so it’s possible just 2 horses are out in the lead pack. Turning for home AP will take command. If he starts pulling away the betting public can head to the windows to collect their 60 cents. If there is any sign that he is not pulling away and is getting challenged at top of stretch, show bettors should start praying that he can hang on for 3^rd.

Here is my predicted order of finish under scenario 2, along with some commentary on the also rans:

6 – Frosted – 5 – 1 – The 4 ingredients for a Belmont winner can be found in this guy. Great Pedigree, well rested, should get best trip off pace as stalker, and has decent form as the race in the derby looks worse on paper as he was racing against a severe speed bias and was able to close from near last to 4^th. Trainer is white hot at meet – 10 for 26. Only concern is the wise guys are all over him, making 5-1 nearly impossible. 4-1 is fair value.

7 – Keen Ice – 20-1 – Best-bred horse in the race for the distance – a son of Curlin and has huge stamina influences on dam side. He had some trouble in the derby, as he was blocked at the top of stretch, for about an eighth of mile. When he got clear, he made up ground late. Key for him is how far he will be back early in the race. I would like to see him mid pack and make a move on turn and grind it out in the lane. This sleeper can upset if the pace is hot up front and things fall apart. Doubt we will get 20-1, but 12 to 15 to 1 is acceptable for a win bet. Must-use underneath in exotics (even if Scenario 1 occurs)

3 – Madefromlucky – 12-1 – Has a decent win over the track in the Peter Pan, but field was a bit suspect. Distance won’t be a problem as his dam side has stamina, and sire looking at lucky is by Smart Strike. Should get decent stalking trip with stablemate doing the heavy lifting up top with AP. Blinkers off in last was key for him, and also the wide sweeping turns of Belmont was to his liking according to his trainer. Could be wise guy player too, given the publics knowledge of peter pan success and hails from popular Pletcher barn, which means he could bet to 8-1.

5 – American Pharoah – 3-5 – Misses 3^rd by a neck sending bridge jumpers to their resting place at the bottom of the east river, and show prices through the roof. Or, he could win by 10 – lol.

Also Rans:

8 – Materiality – 6-1 – There is a slight chance could wire the field on the lead like Da Tara but the price is not right to chase this scenario. Also, don’t like the questionable pedigree on dam side. Should give bettors a thrill for the first mile but will be all in to keep up with AP turning for home. His best chance of winning would be a slow pace on lead and AP has trouble at gate, leaving him uncontested.

1 – Mubtaahij – 10-1 – Wildcard from pace perspective. Could be near lead early in surprise. Just don’t think he is good enough, and had no excuse in derby. On plus side, could improve 2^nd start US and has minor chance at hitting board. Other plus was I liked him in the derby and these horses have turned into Belmont gold – Birdstone, Palice Malice and Stay Thirsty to name a few.

4 – Frammento -30-1 – For Zito fans only. Could clunk up for 4^th in best case scenario, ruining superfecta dreams.

2 – Tale of Verve – One run Preakness showing was fluke, costing me huge Exacta score. Possible he clunks up for 4^th if pace melts down.

I will do small win bets on 6 and 7.

$1 Tri Key – 6 with 7,3,5,1

$1 Tri Key 6 with 7-3 with all

$ 1 Tri box – 6-7-3-5

And for Scenario one players, we will go $10 Tri – 5 with 7 with 6-3.

Best of luck to all – Let’s hope for either a historic victory or a Belmont Bonanza – anything else will be disappointing.

Ponycapper