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As the Title would indicate, I will start out by saying confidence is sky high for the 2017 Derby. With one caveat – confidence is fairly high that 2 of my top 5 picks will finish 1-2 so I will be focusing most of my attention on HITTING THE EXACTA !!!!!!!.

The downside is if you asked me who I like to win I would have hard time coming up with a clear cut winner, and I can’t bet them all to win. So, rather than me guessing on which of the 5 will win, I have decided to make it a pure math equation based on a points system. So for the first time, I will be sharing my Derby selection criteria and assigning points to each horse based on a ranking / assessment in each category. Regardless of how it shakes out in the ranking – the recommendation is to go heavy on the exacta, and sprinkle in a few win bets to re-coup losses if the exacta doesn’t hit. That is the strategy for Derby 2017.

In summary, here are 5 reasons to go large this year:
1. I really like my picks
2. If the track is off, then I like 80% of my picks more
3. There is no clear cut derby favorite as in the previous 3 years, and the co favorites seem a little vulnerable and are definitely no shoe in – not to mention there so much dead money in the pools
4. A fair amount of junk – we can quickly eliminate many horses
5. Chaos, pure Chaos – nobody sniffs out a chaos race better than Whitey – That means big prices and backing up the brinks truck to the OTB

Here is my main evaluation criteria for the triple crown races, which I will use to get to my projected winner:
1. Race/Pace Set up
2. Form/Past Performances/Talent
3. Quality of Prep races
4. Pedigree, dosage and dosage index
5. Horse for Course
6. Foundation/Experience
7. Off Track Bump (this is in play this year with the forecast)
8. Intangibles

Below is the Derby rundown for this edition:
• The Field
• Likely Favorites
• Pace Analysis
• Pletcher runners
• Top 4 Picks & MOAB
• Picking the Winner – Ranking the top 5 based on criteria
• Additional Notes – Favorites
• Race Wildcards
• Sleepers for Exotics
• Rip Van Winkle for the Win
• Early Belmont Pick
• Weather
• Wagering Strategy

The Field
1. Lookin at Lee 20-1
2. Thunder Snow 20-1
3. Fast and Accurate 50-1
4. Untrapped 30-1
5. Always Dreaming 5-1
6. State of Honor 30-1
7. Girvin 15-1
8. Hence 15-1
9. Irap 20-1
10. Gunnevera 15-1
11. Battle of Midway 30-1
12. Sonneteer 50-1
13. J Boys Echo 20-1
14. Classic Empire 4-1
15. McCraken 5-1
16. Tapwrit 20-1
17. Irish War Cry 6-1
18. Gormley `15-1
19. Practical Joke 20-1
20. Patch 30-1

Likely Favorites
The two likely betting favorites will be lukewarm choices at best and probably settle around the 5-1 mark. Personally, I believe both will be underlays and will be playing against and using defensively. Always Dreaming and Classic Empire will battle for favoritism. McCraken and Irish War Cry will battle for 3rd choice.

Pace Analysis
With the defection of two speed horses – Malagacy and Batallion Runner – announced on Saturday the pace took a hit, and this should benefit the front runners and stalkers. However, the pace is always a wild card on derby day and there are no guarantees of how things will shake out. The defections will definitely not be a plus for the stone closers.

Pletcher Runners
He had 5 and now is down to 3 with the two scratches as Malagacy will be pointed to the Preakness and Battalion Runner “apparently” (unearthed later) did not like the track. Pletcher will have likely co favorite Always Dreaming, Tapwrit, and the one eyed bandit in Patch. He is long overdue to go on a Derby tear given the stock he gets every year. Keep in mind, that more than half of his 45 derby runners have been over 20-1 odds so perhaps there is some degree of owners forcing his hand to run (when they didn’t deserve to be in the race). Derby dreamers are impacting his stats.

Here are my Top 4 Picks, Plus MOAB:
In no order of preference, here are my main contenders I am locking in on for this year’s Derby:

Gunnevera
ML odds – 15-1, Projected Off Odds – 8 to 12-1.

This is a gritty horse with a great foundation based on his 2 yo races. He ran a bang up 2nd in the Holy Bull and in watching the replay, he had some hidden trouble on the turn losing tons of momentum. He won the Fountain of Youth in smashing fashion, and was actually pulling away late. He was post-compromised in the Florida Derby and it was clear that the race was nothing more of a prep as he was already guaranteed a spot in the Derby. The key for him is not to be too far back especially if the pace is moderate, so we will have to trust recently nominated HOF jockey Javier Castellano to put him in the right spot. The pedigree is great for the distance by Dialed in and with Unbridled on the Dam side. He will either win by a neck or finish like he did in the Florida derby – a clunking up 3rd. If the pace is slow, he has little to no shot.

McCraken
ML odds – 5 -1, Projected Off Odds 6 to 7-1

I really loved his Sam Davis victory at Tampa Bay but then he was sidelined with a minor health issue and had to skip the TB Derby. He went to the Blue Grass and was a disappointing 3rd in a weird race. In watching the replay he actually ran pretty decent as he had some excuses but clearly it was not his best. The main reason I am on the wagon is he is a horse for course – 3 tries and 3 wins at Churchill. He is also a closer and will need some kind of honest pace to launch his run. Pedigree for derby distance is good and I like the underrated trainer angle here.

Irish War Cry
ML Odds 6-1, Projected Odds – 5 to 6 – 1

Jersey bred is getting tons of buzz at CD so his price will not go up. He may get the best set up of all, stalking the pace and pouncing at top of stretch similar to the Wood win. He didn’t beat much in the Wood so I am a little skeptical of the race but I do like the trainer and has Curlin as the sire and the distance should be no problem. Couple pluses for him – one, you can throw out his clunker two back as the jockey was on crack that day and the jockey switch in the wood made all of the difference. Also, the trainer made a bridle adjustment for his last race and that seemed to help the horse relax. Motion is one of the great trainers in the sport and he deserves another Derby win.

Tapwrit
ML Odds 20 -1, Projected odds 14 to 18 – 1

One of the great angles for profits is for the capper to have the ability to just draw a line through a bad race. I have learned this over the years and now have no issue doing it. Horses run bad races for a variety of reasons and the Blue Grass was a clunker I will forgive. This horse set a track record in the Tampa Bay Derby and was a fast closing 2nd to McCraken in the Sam Davis. That race could be the key race people are talking about post derby if Tapwrit and McCraken run well (as I suspect). This pick is all about value, as if he had won the Blue Grass he would have been the likely favorite and now everyone is jumping off the bandwagon due to one bad race, which means his derby backers will be getting very nice odds. Of the 3 Pletcher horses, this is the one I prefer the most. Pedigree is great by stud sire Tapit, and has hidden Stamina on the Dam side with Turf sire Hawkster and the great Seattle Slew. The horse cost 1.2 million as yearling.

MOAB Pick – Mother of all Bombs

My blow up the board horse is Battle of Midway (ML Odds 30-1). Horse was pressed the whole way in the Santa Anita Derby in a very fast pace and he showed tons of heart in finishing 2nd. I think that battle gives the horse some needed foundation and he should move forward from the effort. One of the things I really like is that the horse was bought by Winstar after the race and this ownership is clearly on fire lately, and should be respected. My guess is he will be on the lead and it’s a little ironic that the other Win Star runner – Battalion runner – is now a scratch. I see a little conspiracy here, similar to what they did in last year’s Belmont entering a rabbit to set up their horse Creator for the win. Clearly the intention all along was to help their horse by scratching Battalion Runner who would only compromise this ones running style. Trainer is very good and knows how to get them ready for big races on the west coast.

Derby Assessment Criteria:
Below are the main factors I use when capping the derby. This is Whitey’s secret sauce, revealed for the first time. The weightings are still a work in progress and I am still adjusting.

1. Race/Pace Set up – 40 Points

Clearly the race favors stalkers as two of the speed ponies are out, and I really don’t see a whole lot of pace, other than Irap, Always Dreaming, Fast and Accurate, and State of Honor. If the pace is moderate to slow, the stalkers can get first jump, and the closers will be compromised. I see 46 and 3 or 4 for the half, 111 and change for three quarters. Essentially, somewhere between honest or fair and moderate. So here is how I rank them:

Irish War Cry – 40 – Stalker
Battle of Midway – 40- Stalker
Tapwrit – 35 – Mid Stalker
Gunnevera – 15 – Closer
McCracken – 15 – Closer
Above is for the win – the closers can easily finish 3rd and hit the trifecta

2. Form/Past Performances/Talent – 50 Points

I take into account previous races, pace figs, speed figs, ability to run fast the last 3/8’s based on prep race results, overall form and talent. Here is how I rank them:

Gunnevera – 45
Tapwrit – 35
Irish War Cry – 33
McCracken – 33
Battle of Midway – 20

3. Quality of Prep races – 20 Points

This is a sneaky angle for me as I like to evaluate the races the horses are exiting to gauge the true level of competition they beat. Sometimes these are hard to decipher but I have come up with a way to judge the quality of horses in each race and make sweeping conclusions of strong, average or weak. To me, the best prep races were the fountain of youth, Holy Bull, Sam Davis. The weakest were Santa Anita Derby, Louisiana prep races, and Arkansas Derby. Others are neutral. Here is how I assess based on that:

Gunnevera – 20
Tapwrit – 15
Irish War Cry – 15
McCracken – 12
Battle of Midway – 5

4. Pedigree, dosage and dosage index – 30 Points
Overall, all 5 of my selections are well bred for the distance, have above average dosage points, and have a fairly low dosage.
In general, lower the dosage and CD the better, and the higher the dosage points the better.
Here is how they shake out:

Dosage:
Battle of Midway:
Dosage 2.83, Dosage Points 44, CD .68
Gunnevera:
Dosage 2.00, Dosage Points 30, CD .47
Irish War Cry:
Dosage 3.00, Dosage Points 24, CD .71
McCraken
Dosage 2.43, Dosage Points 24, CD .67
Tapwrit
Dosage 3.00, Dosage Points 28, CD .71

Rankings:
Battle of Midway – 29
Gunnevera – 28
Irish War Cry – 20
McCraken – 22
Tapwrit – 22

5. Horse for Course – 25 Points

I prefer horses who have an affinity the Churchill track and tend to downgrade those who have run poorly in past on the track. Horses with no races at the track are treated as neutral. Four of the 5 on my list have never raced over the track. The horse for course angle is one of the most underrated angles, even in the cheap claiming races. Here is how I rank them:

McCraken – 33 (25 plus 8 bonus for 3 or more wins)
Battle of Midway – 12
Gunnevera – 12
Irish War Cry – 12
Tapwrit – 12

6. Foundation/Experience – 30 Points

Another underrated angle the first Saturday in May. I like horses with either foundation at 2 yo, and have been in tough races, which adds to their overall seasoning and determination. It’s been proven that horses who haven’t raced at 2 have little chance and plays into the foundation theory. Can you see Apollo from the 1800’s?

The typical profile that the average derby winner is 3 to 5 starts at 2 yo, with 2 to 3 prep races as a 3 yo. I am downgrading horses who have no or limited experience as a 2 yo, as well as horses with 4 or less races entering the Derby. 5 starts is on the bubble and if 5, I like at least 2 as 2 yo. Here is how I rank them:

Gunnevera – 30 Points
Tapwrit – 23
McCraken – 20
Irish War Cry – 20
Battle of Midway – 8

7. Off Track Bump (this is in play this year with the forecast) – 50 Points

I haven’t looked any Tomlinson numbers and are assessing all of these on the naked eye pedigree analysis – my own knowledge of good off track sires – and all of these 5 except Gunnevera will absolutely love the slop. Note, the high weighting on this – why? Track condition plays a huge factor in the race outcomes every day, and the derby is no different. Some horses just don’t run on an off track. Pedigree is the key and that gives the knowledgeable capper an edge. Or you can cheat and use Tomlinson in the form. I actually prefer my own over Tomlinson (even though they are more scientific)

Here is how I rank them based on my analysis of their off track bloodlines:

Tapwrit – 48
McCraken – 48
Irish War Cry – 48
Battle of Midway – 42
Gunnevera – 30

8. Intangibles – Jockey and Post Positon – 25 Points
Typically I am downgrading for post position of 1 through 5. Anything outside is good – 10 through 17 is ideal. I am upgrading the best jockeys but not penalizing for other jockeys as all should be good enough overall given it’s the best race in the country.

Jockey Analysis:
Tapwrit – ** underrated jockey
McCraken –
Irish War Cry –
Battle of Midway – * Better jockey on turf 2
Gunnevera – ***Not a great derby record but best jockey in race

***Update – Post positions are out and all of the above are 10-17 posts – holy crap – stars aligned

Ranking:
Gunnevera – 25
Tapwrit – 20
McCraken – 20
Irish War Cry – 20
Battle of Midway – 20

*******************************************
Total Scores:
And the winner is….Gunnevera

Gunnevera – 223
Tapwrit – 208
Irish War Cry – 208
McCraken – 203
Battle of Midway – 186

Additional Notes – Favorites:
How does Whitey see the 2 favorites? My gut says both will flop, but it’s probably wise to include in some trifectas underneath – just in case. Always Dreaming, in my view is more of a wildcard – he either jogs by 5 or finishes up the track, out of money. I don’t like his lack of seasoning and he has never been in a tussle. 2 races back the trainer put him in a cake walk and then he got a dream trip in Florida Derby on speed favoring track. Also, this horse sometimes acts up pre-race and I think the large derby crowd only exacerbates the situation. I will play against and hope for a flop. Not even sure I will include in TRI. Lot of flop potential here. But, again, if he is real deal I am sunk.

The other favorite will be Classic Empire. Call it a gut feel but it seems to me that they are rushing the horse back from injury and he was all out to beat a semi-weak field with a dream trip. I would favor him to at least the board over one dimensional Always Dreaming.

Race Wildcards:
Hence. This horses is getting a lot of buzz and may be quickly turning into the wise guy horse. People are loving his last race and think it’s a key race. Will probably pass on using, but wouldn’t talk anyone off him if they like him. Will probably be over-bet too. Could run big or flop. Crapshoot.

Who Could Surprise in Trifecta or Super?
I have a couple to consider. I see Patch as the most likely to clunk up for 3rd or 4th at best. The one eyed horse is most likely entered as a Belmont prep but he always runs late so I may give consideration underneath. He had the worst post draw possible. Horse has no left eye and all of the horses are to his left coming out of the 20 hole. Can you say blind squirrel?

Looking at Lee draws in and could clunk up for 4th. Had trouble late in Ark Derby and would need a fast pace to have a chance to hit the board. Many will be scared by post but he will be last anyway early so the 1 is not terrible.

The Rip Van Winkle
Sleeper pick would be the Dubai shipper. Thunder Snow. Things to like: Stalking style, undefeated on dirt, tons of foundation at 2, high earnings (1.6 mil), US horses are not world beaters, best breeding in the race for distance – Dosage .89 and CD or .06 (lowest CD I have seen). Things to hate – shipper, late shipper, might be prep for Belmont, tough to gauge competition in preps. Advice: read how he is liking the track – any track reports could be helpful. Good candidate for saver win bet or inclusions in trifecta. Would not talk anyone off this one if they liked him.

Early Belmont Pick
Avid followers of this Blog know that I have been known to crush the Belmont, though we suffered a heart-breaker last year with Destin getting nosed on wire. Derby runners who could improve in Belmont:

Thunder Snow. A productive Derby race could spring board him to a Belmont win. Best breeding for Belmont distance. Would be best for trainer to skip Preakness. Tapwrit and Classic Empire would also be good Belmont picks.

Weather Forecast
The forecast looks iffy for Derby day – rain will be heavy Thursday with spotty showers around for both Friday and Saturday. Check out the track condition a few hours before post time and finalize your decisions. Luckily for me, only a few adjustments may be needed as most of my selections will like the off going.

****Weather Update: Looks like a clipper for Saturday morning with rain ending 1 or 2 in afternoon with breaks of sun around post time. My guess: track will have moisture and will be labeled good by post time. A heavier track actually favors the closers but every track is different. I will be paying attention to the earlier races for any bias.

Wagering Strategy:
The exacta box will be my main bet – I will be boxing them up 3 at a time and going large – the horses can run in any order first or 2nd and it’s a winner

The big 3:
Gunnevera (10), Tapwrit (16), Irish War Cry (17)
One level down – McCraken (15)
Sprinkle in – Battle of Midway (11)

Win Bets:
Big Win Bet Number 10 – Gunnevera
Saver Win bet Number 16 – Tapwrit

If you like Irish War Cry and McCraken best, then lay it on them. For me, I prefer value in my wagers and there is more value on the 10 and 16 then the 15 and 17, due to the higher odds, especially on 16.

Big Exacta Box bets – $10 – Cost you $60 each :
10, 16, 17
10, 16, 15

One Level Down – Exacta Box – $5 – cost you $ 30 and $10:
15, 16, 17
10, 15

Total cost would be $160 for above
Beauty is there is potential to hit it two ways, if the right combination falls – example 10,16 or 10, 15 or 16, 17

Saver Exacta:
Exacta Part Wheel

Put Battle of Midway underneath in exacta just in case, with the top 4 in first position:
So it’s 10, 15, 16, 17 with 11

Wins if top 4 come in first and Battle of Midway comes in2nd
$5 increment will cost you $20

Degenerates only
$1 tri box – 10, 15, 16, 17 = $24

Summary
Exacta and Tri bets will cost you $204. You can scale down based on your own budget. Win bets can be placed in the amount to get you to break even based on projected odds. Example a $20 win bet on the 10 horse can get you to $200 and break even if the exacta does not hit.

Good Luck to all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ponycapper