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35 horses have won the Derby and Preakness yet only 12 have been able to win the Belmont Stakes, and capture racing’s most elusive prize – the Triple Crown. Justify will be looking to become lucky 13, and validate the greatness and promise of his young career.

So, the story-line is set for the 150th rendition of the Belmont Stakes, with 9 other rivals lined up to foil the plot and take down the Test of Champions.

Astute followers of this blog know Whitey has had a fair degree of success over the years in the Belmont, and 2017 was Whitey’s crowning achievement – taking down the super.

Re-live the 2017 Belmont bonanza magic, found here:

Tapwrit is Main Threat to Score Minor Upset in Wide Open 2017 Belmont

Since the race goes through Justify, let’s start our analysis with the race favorite.

Before getting into the details, let’s look at the keys for him to win. In my view, these 3 things will likely determine his fate:

1 – Will he face any pace pressure? In the Preakness he got a challenge from good magic but survived late on-rushers while “in-hand late”.

2 – Can he settle and relax? This is important because the horse typically runs 45 and change for splits and that won’t work in the longer Belmont. This was one of the factors that led to Smarty Jones’ demise.

3 – How will the gruel of the Triple Crown trail – 3rd race in 5 weeks, 6th race since mid-February – affect him? Many have come and many have failed. Why – because of the taxing nature of the race series and the demanding distance over a deeper race track. In short, a tired horse is up against it in the Belmont.

On point 3, the trainer says he looks great in training and there is no sign of fatigue. The bottom line is…. if he can relax, and set or sit off fractions of 48 and change and 113 for 3 QTR’s, and has no one pushing him or challenging him along the way, he is likely a winner. While the on-
track fans, and grandmas holding $2 win tickets will be happy, blog followers will be left with empty pockets and shattered dreams.

Since we will be playing against the favorite in the win column, let’s look at some key points and analyze additional factors that may impact the favorite.

Racing Luck
Some weird stuff happens in the Belmont, and sometimes fate is the by-product of racing luck. We all remember (and treasure) the 2014 post race rant by the owner of California Chrome, when he said — “they are all Cowards”. What the D-bag didn’t know was Callie lost a shoe during the race, which helped to thwart his TC bid.

In 2004, jockey error, and jockey collusion – along with a keyed-up Smarty wanting to run – led to his stretch collapse, yielding to 36-1 Birdstone.

In 1997, another Jockey error, and a move way to soon, cost Real Quiet the TC when Victory Gallop ran him down to win by a nose.

In 2011, race favorite Animal Kingdom lost all chance at the start, when he stumbled badly and nearly through the jockey off, while losing the iron.

Talent
No doubt Justify is loaded with raw talent. But, in my view, there is a reason why only 12 horses have captured the triple crown – one in the last 39 years. To me, a runner must be ELITE and not just very talented or great in order to take the TC. A lot of great horses failed in the 3rd leg, and that list is long. Obviously, the question of great vs elite will be answered on Saturday. I view the Belmont as a Test of Greatness, and if the horse passes the test and comes out victorious, he instantly becomes an elite horse.

Distance Breeding
Does Justify have the breeding to get the distance? And if not, does he have the will, heart and determination to overcome his pedigree limitations?

His pedigree is very questionable for the distance as his sire Scat Daddy excelled at middle distances, but he does have stamina influence on dam side, namely AP Indy and Awesome Again. On the eye test – Whitey says no on the distance test, and he will need to be carried to the wire by heart and determination (this is an intangible we don’t quite know yet)

The Competition
Each 3yo crop may vary significantly from year to year, and this could factor into TC success rate. We will look at this year’s field below, but in general, the 2018 crop is marginal at best, which favors well for Justify (there are no world-beaters lying in the weeds and the 2018 Preakness field was one of the worst in years).

Breaking Down the Field —Race analysis

How does Whitey cap the Belmont? First of all, I am a student of Belmont history. I watch Belmont race replays like people binge on Netflix. It is actually pretty cool to re-live history, especially the TC winning moments.

My two main evaluation criteria in capping the Belmont:

Talent/recent form – lightly raced horses who are rested and improving are preferred, along with horses who have flashed big race ability, or who are highly regarded by their connections.

Pedigree – This is a unique race because of the 1.5 mile distance, and is one of the main reasons why a horse who should win, doesn’t — Rarely does a horse win if he is not bred to get the distance via his lineage. Over the years, I have become a pedigree geek and do about whole days worth of study, analysis and speculation on the field’s distance pedigree.

Additional Criteria:

Race set-up – typically, I will look at how the race should unfold on paper when comparing running styles of the entrants. Projecting here is often key, as the slower pace in the Belmont may cause more “bunching” than in a normal race, and it will usually favor the stalking grinder, instead of the one-run closer.

Rest – There is a reason why fresh horses, especially those going from the Derby to Belmont, have fared well over the years. 3 races in 5 weeks is not the ideal way to come into s distance-demanding race, over a more tiring surface.

Other Intangibles – Weather, Trainers, etc

Race-Day Forecast

Can we get a dry track this year?
From Accuweather as of Thursday:

A storm seems destined to bring rain to Belmont Park, New York, to complete a soggy third leg of the 2018 Triple Crown. However, a rainy Belmont Stakes is not set in stone.
This type of weather pattern, which involves thunderstorm complexes, has the potential to bring drenching downpours and urban flooding.
“There may be a sharp edge to the rain,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Dean DeVore.
“The New York City area, including Elmont, will be near that northern edge.”
Dry weather is expected for much up upstate New York and New England, while flooding downpours may occur in the Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., areas.
Ultimately, the exact track of the batch of showers and thunderstorms will determine the northern extent of the rain on Saturday. There is still a chance the rain slides by to the south or shows up after the big race.
Both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness were run in the mud and the rain in 2018. The 2018 Kentucky Derby was the wettest on record with more than 3 inches of rain. Rain fell every day for a week leading up to and including the Preakness at Pimlico in Baltimore

Say What?

So, basically, you want me to handicap a race in advance and I have no idea what the track condition will be?

Whitey Update on weather – I think we will have a fast track based on the updated forecast. The storm should stay south and impact the philly area instead of NY.

Without further delay, let’s analyze this year’s field, in post position order with ML odds:

1 – Justify – 4-5 – Analysis above. Three scenarios for this guy — Wins easy and looks like an elite triple crown runner or runs a big race but tires in late stages and hits the board, or hits a wall at the top of the stretch and flounders as an also ran. Whitey is hoping for the middle scenario as I will be playing him to be “in the mix” for all exotics. Detractors will say he was getting tired late in the Preakness. Some would say the jockey was playing possum and saving gas in the tank. In my view, horse moves way up on a fast track and an off track would be at a disadvantage based on his declining beyers in the mud, and the fact that an off track is more taxing on an animal than a fast track.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Key to victory is getting him out of gate and somehow finding a way to get to the outside of any horse on the lead and not get pinned down on the rail. The 1 post is not ideal for his outside stalking style and jockey tactics will be key. Bottom line is if he is able to sit off the speed and float outside and relax, he will be tough. If he is pinned to the inside of horses early and facing pace pressure, win bettors should be nervous.

2 – Free Drop Billy – 30-1 – Skipped Preakness and connections are making statements that hitting the board is their goal. He flopped in the mud in the Derby and seems to have regressed some in his 3yo season. Love the breeding on this guy by a sire who won the Belmont in Union Rags and stamina on bottom with Giants Causeway. Seems to be training well since the derby flop, and this is a longshot that can spice up the trifecta and supers if he can find the class of his bloodlines and regain some of his 2yo form. Hated the off track in the derby but ran over a muddy serface before and the wet pedigree is actually very good. Whitey’s superfecta sleeper.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Has been showing improved speed in the workouts which lead me to believe he will be more forwardly placed. Expect him to be mid pack and saving ground on the rail on the first turn. Best case scenario is a fast pace and he passes tired horses late for a minor slice, perhaps clunking up for 4th.

3 – Bravazo – 8-1 – Terrible ML set on this guy as he will go off as co 2nd choice at around 6-1. He moves up on a wet track but may not get it. Also rans in the derby and Preakness have shaky record in the Belmont and overall, I am leaning against, as I felt the Preakness late run was more a by-product of exhausted leaders tiring, rather than a fast closing horse. While he may have some stamina from Awesome again on sire side he does not have much distance pedigree on bottom. If you throw in that he will be bet heavily with the negatives mentioned, especially on pedigree, and short-rest, he is a play-against.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
There is speculation that he may challenge Justify early. While that would not be good for the favorite, it would certainly lead to his demise as well. He is best stalking and will pray for rain.

4 – Hofburg – 9-2 – Connections took a shot in the Derby, but probably would have been better off in the Peter Pan as a Belmont prep. Had tons of traffic trouble in the Derby, as he had to steady on the turn twice and couldn’t get rolling until late. Likely to be a wise guy horse on that reason alone. On review of the Derby replay, I did notice that he galloped out past the wire with lots of energy, even passing the many runners who finished in front of him. Pedigree-wise he is by Tapit, a sire on fire in the Belmont, as he saddled 3 of the 4 past Belmont winners. Has plenty of stamina on dam side, with Touch Gold and AP Indy. He is a lightly raced colt who skipped the Preakness and is bred for the distance. Naturally, this guy is a contender in my view.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
To me, the key is showing more speed early and settling mid-pack instead of falling to the back of field. He did this in his maiden win, racing in a stalking mid-pack position. If you have a win bet on this guy and he is last at the half way point, you are sunk. Look for him to save ground around the first turn and make a move late to try and run down the front-runners.

5 – Restoring Hope – 30-1 – Likely entered as a rabbit by his trainer to give Justify a target. His credentials are shaky at best and his only hope is a front running, slow paced Belmont where he may be able to hang around late for a share. Breeding is very good for the Belmont, with Giant’s Causeway and Tapit in his pedigree.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
As mentioned, he is one of the likely pace setters to give the favorite a target. If he is by himself and Noble Indy doesn’t break well, he could give backers a thrill late.

6 – Gronkowski – 12-1 – Likely to be overbet in the Belmont based on name sake connections (the real Gronk). Positives include his savvy trainer and his unknown commodity status on dirt. He missed the Derby due to illness but seems to be training well for his new connections. On the downside, his pedigree is highly questionable for the distance as, his sire Lohnro was a more of miler type, and excelled on turf. For Gronk or patriot fans only.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
More a stalker-type, which is a well suited style for the Bemont

7 – Tenfold – 12-1 – Ran a decent 3rd in the Preakness, but tough to tell if his race was the by product of a wet track or he has improved since his early 3yo campaign. He didn’t change leads in the Preakness and they may have cost him late. What I really like about this horse is…..HIS BREEDING !!!! He has the best pedigree in the field for the Belmont distance — are you kidding me – wow. Curlin on the top side, which is stamina. And, it only gets better on dam side — by a daughter of Tapit. And also has stamina laden and brilliance of Giants Causeway on female side. He is lightly raced and seems to be improving, and most of all, offers some degree of value based on the odds. Only question is – is he a Travers horse and late developing sort? Or is today the day?

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Trainer was not pleased with tardy beginning in Preakness so I am guessing he will be a stalking type here, and closer to the pace, sitting just to the outside of Justify. A grinding, well-bred for the distance stalker type is always dangerous in the Belmont. Can you say Tonalist and Palace Malice?

8 – Vino Rosso – 8-1 – Have always been high on this horse and considered him a great Belmont contender from day 1 based on his pedigree profile. Was a major flop in the Derby slop. Trainer has a way of getting his horses to peak in the Belmont and is well rested after skipping the Preakness. Has great pedigree for the distance by Curlin, with dam-side pedigree in Touch Gold and Lear Fan, both stamina laden influences. To me, the big question is — how talented is he? He won the Wood taking advantage of an outside bias, but the field that day was weak and the 2nd place finisher, Enticed, also flopped in the Derby. Can see him running on late for a minor share.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Seems to be a late running sort and the only time he ran really well was when he got an extremely fast pace in the Wood. Trainer entered stablemate Noble Indy in an effort to soften the front runners to set it up it for him. Winstar did the same thing two years ago entering rabbit Gettysburg to set it up for Creator, and that paid handsome dividends (screwing Whitey’s pick Destin, who lost by a nose). The outside post is a major plus for him though, so the draw was favorable.

9 – Noble Indy – 30-1 – Getting this kind of number on a Pletcher trained horse is very inviting. Trainer made it clear on intent – he will be on the lead, and says that tactic is his best chance to win. Problem is, Justify is in the race and he would need something wacky to happen early in race from Justify in order to have a shot. Overall, he was another that flopped in the Derby and takes Derby to Belmont route. While he has AP Indy in bloodline, the rest of his pedigree is marginal for the Belmont distance.

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
Likely going to the lead and will try to steal it or soften up Justify.

10 – Blended Citizen – 15-1 – Another classic example of a terrible ML. Likely will go off at 8 or 10-1. Will likely be somewhat overbet on what looks to be a deceiving performance in the Peter Pan. The problem for me is that he got an ideal set up in that race, sitting off a very fast pace, which was contentious – it was a dream trip. Now he stretches out and gets a slower pace, which is not an ideal combination. Also, the field he beat was highly suspect. Pedigree-wise, nothing really excites me here and is sprint heavy on dam side. Add it all up, and he is a toss for me and I am taking a stand against (which scares me a little because some sharp cappers are on him.)

Running Style/Race Lens/Keys to Victory
He is a stalker, mid-pack closer and will likely be a little closer to the lead today. If he had a better pedigree I might be intrigued, but seems he will be compromised by a tougher field and slower pace today.

Race Lens

Let’s take a look at Whitey’s view on how things might shake out.

Getting some vibes that the other trainers aren’t going to let Justify do his thing, and get comfortable so maybe there will some shenanigans early. So, gut feel, I will say the pace is a little faster than most expect and I don’t have full confidence that Justify can get outside (though he might). I see restoring hope and noble indy out early with Justify sitting in 3rd rounding the first turn.

Here is the key to the race for non Justify backers – nearing the final turn someone has to make noise and force Justify move a little earlier than he wants to – you see – Justify can’t be passed on the far turn – if he is – well likely, he is toast. So, another horse has to force the hand of the Justify’s jockey perhaps sometime heading into the last turn and with it, we get extra energy expended earlier than he wants, and with that scenario, it opens it up for the closers. Hofburg seems best to capitalize on this scenario, as he has the most talent, and will have the best late kick of any horse to grind down the leaders late. Question is – who will force the hand? Two likely candidates are Blended Citizen and Tenfold, maybe even Gronk. Jose Ortiz rides Gronk – and his brother is on Hofburg (conspiracy?). My guess is it will be Tenfold. He will be the closest pursuer. The fate of our tickets is in the Jockey of Tenfold’s hands.

If no one forces Justify hand – what happens – well, that is called the Catbird Seat, and basically the Jockey can wait as long as he wants cause he knows he has the front runners pegged, and he can wait and wait and wait to make his move towards the finish. In which case, more than likely Justify goes on to win cause he is the most talented in field by far and a relaxed trip or journey is his best chance to overcome pedigree limitations.

So these are the two likeliest scenarios:

Scenario 1 – its Tenfold and Justify going at it around the turn and entering the stretch with Justify pulling away but the battle may be won by Justify, the war is lost, as General Hofburg comes rolling late and beats Justify by 2 lengths, with Tenfold a close third, and Vino Rosso or Free Drop Billy clunking up for a distant 4th. This is the scenario we will bet, and stake the lions-share of the bank-roll on.

Scenario 2 – Justify pounces on command later than he needs to and pulls away from the field, leaving only the closers to clunk up for a piece of the minor awards.

Picks

Horse – 4 Hofburg – My top pick needs a lot to go his way to steal a win here including getting a pace to set up his late run, and will need some help from his friends to pressure Justify. I am banking on a mid pack trip and a move on the turn, and a sustained rally to wear down the leaders late. His trainer echoed similar thoughts:

If Hofburg is going to win, Mott said the late-running colt has to be within 2-to-3 lengths of the lead for the final quarter mile. It also would help if some of the others in the field of 10 forced Justify to run an honest early pace.
Good Magic did that in the Preakness and Mike Smith, the jockey of Justify, felt Bravazo and Tenfold closing at the wire.

A son of Tapit is bred to run all day and I am very high on the talent and promise, and a trainer who can have him ready for a peak performance. ML oddsmakers really screwed up in making him a solid 2nd choice. Gut feel he floats up to 5 or 6 to 1, and we get more value here than most would expect.

1 Horse – Justify – The one to beat. This horse is something special, no doubt, and the most talented horse in the field and deserving favorite. Trip, and ability to handle the distance will likely determine if he is destined for induction into racing history.

7 Horse – Tenfold – The best breeding for the Belmont distance, he should get a great trip stationed on the hip of Justify. The late developing colt could be primed for a big effort and hails from a barn that knows how to win the Belmont. And, if by chance Justify falters, he could even challenge for the win slot, and hold off the closers.

8 Horse – Vino Rosso – Has great late pace figures which is always coveted at the Belmont, and his trainer is awesome in this race. On a dry track, could possibly move up a spot or two, but would need a pretty hot pace to set up his late kick. Leaning towards tossing the Derby, as it was reported that he took a clump of mud to his eye and it may have impacted his performance. Overall, well bred and suited for the distance, he should be rolling late with a good chance to hit the tri or super.

Super Sleeper
Whitey’s Superfecta sleeper is Free Drop Billy – 2 horse. It kind of feels like he is sitting on a late run to pick up the pieces, and possibly hit the super. Talent has always been there, and the added distance in the Belmont will work in his favor, based on the stellar breeding.

Wagering Strategy

We will keep it simple

Win Bets
$40 win 4
$10 win 7 (saver bet)

Exacta Bets
$2 Ex box 4-7-8 = $12
In case Justify Falters, should pay decent

Trifecta Bets
$2 Tri box – 1-4-7 = $12
$2 Tri box 1-4-8 = $12
$5 Tri Straight – 4 with 1 with 2-7-8 = $15

Superfecta
$1 super box – 1-4-7-8 = $24
$1 super key – 1 with 2-4-7-8 with same with same = $24
$2 Super – 1 with 4 with 2-7-8 with 2-7-8 = $12
Last 2 bets are protection in the Justify win scenario, so we get coverage on back end with the horses preferred, and should pay decent

Good Luck to all !!!!