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A field of 11 is lined up for a “Fall Preakness” under sun-drenched skies at Pimlico. Last Year, we cashed with War of Will in the Preakness, and with any luck, perhaps we can cash again this year !

The race will be without this year’s best 3yo, Tiz the Law, but it looks on paper to be a competitive field, with a vastly different pace scenario than the one in the Derby.

In this ponycapper edition, we will look at:

• Pace Scenario
• Top Contenders and Predicted order of Finish
• Comments on other contenders
• Wagering suggestions
• Bonus commentary on the Black eyed Susan, the 3 yo filly race right before the Preakness

Pace Scenario

Fast and contentious – that is how I expect the pace to be. There is at least 4 horses with a propensity for showing early speed in the race, and the lone speed derby-gift scenario for Authentic will not repeat today. This race should set up perfectly for a stalker, mid pack runner or dead closer to win this year’s running of the Preakness.

Top Contenders and Predicted Order of Finish

1 – Max Player – Number 8 (12-1)

When I was youngster working at old Philly Park sweeping floors, an old timer gave me a tip at the track to look for key jockey switches and what the change mean for the pace and running style. After grabbing a couple of scores back in the 80s with Chuckie Lopez on board horses with new-found speed, I threw it in my arsenal and it has paid some dividends over the years. I will bring out the angle in today’s Preakness and look to Max Player, and a predicted change in race tactics, to spark an upset. You see, this horse has been floundering in the back early in races and making one-run to close for a share. I think that running style changes today with Paco Lopez on board. The connections are clearly signaling they want to be more forwardly placed with this rider switch, as Paco is known for early aggressiveness. Look for Paco to hustle him out of the gate and secure a mid pack trip. The other key for this guy is a change in post position. Based on replays, and some trainer comments, it appears this guy doesn’t really like the kick back or the rail. So, I believe the post change to the outside will be a big help, as he will have the option to track from the outside. The last 3 races this horse was stuck on the inside, both in post position and running line. This horse has always had talent and I really liked his grinding win in the Withers. I picked him in the Belmont but avoided him in the Derby after the post draw. I think today is the day he makes a true account of his talent. Assuming the pace is hot and the favorites get tired late, he has a shot to spring the upset with an outside, and more forwardly placed trip. And, don’t be surprised, or scared, when the horse drifts up and we get closer to 15 or 18-1 as the closing odds.

2 – Swiss Skydiver – Number 4 (6-1)

This filly never runs a bad race and has shown the ability to rate, which will be a plus in today’s race. She ran a great race in the Oaks, but didn’t like the loss of ground and switch to the outside turning for home. In the Oaks, the stakes record was smashed and they ran the final three eighths in 36.16 (that’s fast). The competition she was facing was pretty tough as Gamine is one of the best horses in the country, male or female. While some will point to her pretty aggressive schedule as a down fall, I would disagree based on how historically patient her trainer has been over the years.  Look for the filly to be sitting in 2^nd flight and pounce on the leaders turning for home.  Could be a perfect trip and set up to hit the board, and with any luck, to steal victory from the boys. And, don’t be surprised if the price floats up as no one is picking her (this is a good sign).

3 – Mr. Big News – Number 2 (12-1)

Wasn’t a big fan of this guy heading into the Derby but he ran terrific, and made a nice eye-catching middle move to reach contention late, settling for 3^rd.  That kind of middle move is often an indicator of an improving horse and I can see him taking a step forward, especially with a faster pace in today’s Preakness. I also like the big improvement in both pace and speed figs in the Derby. The pace number improved by 21 and the speed fig by 18. The fast pace and set up really favors this guys closing kick. Overall, this horse could be a future star on the turf, but today, I can see him making some noise late and closing to hit the board at a decent price.

4- Authentic – Number 9 (9-5)

Got dream in Derby when two horses with early speed – Art Collector and King Guillermo – were late defections. He won’t get the same trip today as there is plenty of speed in here. I assume Johnny V will be on the lead with this guy but he may face an early challenge from Art Collector or even NY Traffic. Regardless, the pace will be quick and he could be candidate to hit the wall in the stretch after a very taxing Derby effort. Still, probably the most talented horse in the race and there is always a chance he duplicates his Derby effort if no one is running with him early in the race. Include defensively in trifectas and hope he gets some early pressure.

5 – Art Collector – Number 3 (5-2)

He was a late scratch in derby due to minor foot issue but by all accounts he is training well. Horse is loaded with talent and the biggest question will be whether he goes to the lead or cedes it to Authentic. Overall, he looks good on paper and has run some nice races, however, I think the races he is coming out of are a cut below this level of competition. The field in the blue grass was on the weak side. And, the two horses who ran 2^nd and 3^rd in the Ellis Park Derby flopped in Derby. So, I have to take a stand against but hope he makes his presence felt early to keep the race favorite honest. Last year I made a bold prediction to throw out the race favorite Improbable. And, I was right. I will make the same prediction this year for the likely 2^nd choice.

Other Contenders

Pneumatic – Number 11 (20-1)

He will be the wise guy horse as there is plenty of early steam and excitement based on his last win. I say — not so fast. He beat a really weak field in last and earned an inflated Beyer. The 2^nd place horse in the Pegasus will be one of the biggest longshots in this race.  Still, I love the talent of the horse, but just think he is a notch below and will have a full wagon of supporters to bring his odds down to 10-1 by post time.

NY Traffic – Number 7 (12-1)

For those that liked him in the derby, he could be a play back as he lost his shoe in the race. Best chance would be gunning for the lead and hoping for the best.

Thousand Words – Number 5 (6-1)

he other Baffert horse is a bit of an enigma and was a late scratch in the Derby because he flipped in the paddock. Kind of a wildcard for me and leaning against including in exotics, as you can’t play them all. Could also be overbet because of the trainer.

Wagering Strategy

Lets keep it simple

40 win on Max Player – Number 8

$2 Exacta box – 2-4-8 = $12

Mr. Big News, Swiss Skydiver, Max Player

$1 Tri box – 2-4-8-9 = $24

Adding Authentic to the 3 above

********Bonus Plays – The Black Eyed Susan – Race 10

I like Hopeful Growth to pull the upset in a blanket finish with the race favorite Bonny South. Both should get stalking trips. Will include Truth Hurts and Mizzen Beau in trifectas.

Win bet on 8

Ex box 5-8

Tri box – 2-5-7-8

Good Luck !!!

Whitey