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Welcome to the 2022 Run for the Roses.

We will take another swing at the first leg of the Triple Crown…and hope for the best. With 20 horses signed on, often luck and trip are deciding factors.

Let’s get right to the story lines surrounding this year’s running…

The Field

This looks to be the most competitive Derby field in several years, with two luke-warm favorites and a bunch of horses that come into the race with respectable form. Legitimately, you could probably make a case for 10 -12 horses and there isin’t a ton of separation in overall talent-level. From a handicapping perspective, this could be a fun exercise, and a refreshing change from the stand-outs and overwhelming favorites that have become the new normal in recent years.

The Pace

It looks like early pace could be faster than normal, and contentious, given that there are at least 6 or 7 horses with a fair amount of early speed in the field. I am guessing 46 for the half and 110.4 for the three quarters. This could set it up for the mid pack runners, as well as the closers.

The Weather

The Weather for the Derby itself looks okay but there will be downpours on Friday. There is a small chance the system doesn’t clear out until SAT afternoon so we may see a shower or two early in the day on SAT. I am going to handicap for a fast track knowing that the grounds crew will do everything in their power to have fast conditions.

Anyone capping the Friday Oaks should plan for a sloppy track.

Let’s break down the field…

Pretenders:

These are the horses that don’t seem to fit on paper:

2 – Happy Jack – 30-1: Seems like a stretch for this one to hit the board, considering only has 1 win and hasn’t contended in the stakes races. Toss.

4 – Summer is Tomorrow – 30 – 1: UAE shipper will be a pace presence and can’t see this longshot hanging around late. Toss.

11 – Pioneer of Medina – 30 -1: Hasn’t really been a major factor in the preps and might be a race rabbit to help the closers. Toss.

14 – Barber Road – 30 – 1: Rallied vs weaker in many of the Arkansas races and would really need a pace collapse just to hit the board.

20 – Ethereal Road – 30 – 1: Nice pedigree but hasn’t done much in the preps. Likely a toss.

Wise Guy / Buzz Horses:

I am always leery of the over-hyped horses coming into the Derby, as you tend to lose value quickly on the odds board.

There are a few that fit this category and I will likely begrudgingly be passing on them (you can’t bet them all).

5 – Smile Happy – 20 – 1: Horse for Course can improve off nice 2^nd in Blue Grass. Looks great on paper and the only knock on this guy is his sire Runhappy was more of a sprinter than a distance horse, and the dam side only offers limited stamina with Pleasant Tap. Interesting horse but I am not sure he will love the distance, and it seems many are high on his chances and 20-1 likely becomes 12-1 by post time.

8 – Charge It – 20 – 1: Another Pletcher horse is lightly raced and can improve in the Derby. FLA Derby effort was okay, but I am not as enamored by that race as the pace was collapsing late. Seems like a wise guy horse to me and you may be better waiting for the Belmont, by the distance specialist Tapit. Will be hammered down in wagering.

6 – Messier – 8 – 1: Brings speed to the party and has hall of famer Johnny V in the saddle. Formerly trained by Baffert and comes off 2^nd place finish in weak SA Derby. Overall, not high on the west coast contingent as these horses have been facing small fields and seem somewhat overrated. The ML odds don’t reflect his actual chances of winning.

Outsiders with Limited Appeal:

This group is interesting and if you like them, feel free to fire away.

 13 – Simplification – 20 – 1: Florida invader is a hard knocker but may be up against it vs tougher today. Wouldn’t talk anyone off him but with sub-par speed figure and many races that look the same, can’t see him breaking through today.

18 – Tawny Port – 30 – 1: Didn’t beat much in the LEX but is eligible to improve today. Interesting outsider.

19 – Zozos – 20 – 1: Inexperienced runner brings pace to the party and his best chance would involve racing over a wet track as he has the breeding to love the slop.

Boom or Bust Types:

These horses are wildcards in my judgement. They can win by 8 or finish well up the track, and both outcomes would not be surprising.

3 – Epicenter – 7 – 2: Likely favorite come post time has beat up on the competition in Louisiana in preparation for this big race. While he looks great on paper, I am not sure the post draw did him any favors and I am not ready to back him at a short price with so many variables in play regarding the competition he beat. Taking a stand against. 

12 – Taiba – 12 – 1: Will likely be overbet off of the hype of a fast SA Derby. Only two career starts are not a recipe for Derby success, but you have to love the 1.7-million-dollar purchase price. A complete wildcard and could finish first or last. I would say that no other horse in the field is more dependent on a good break than him, because if he breaks poorly, he likely is done having never seen this many horses to date. Tons of talent here, love the horse, and would guess he would be a contender in the BC Classic.

Selections & Predicted Order of Finish  – My Top 4

9 – Tiz the Bomb – 30-1:  Detractors would point out that this guy is unproven on the dirt, and he just beat weaker at Turfway on synthetic. And, to that, I would agree but would point out — that’s the main reason why we will be getting 25 or 30-1 come post time. At the end of the day, the key to turning a profit at the track is to bet on horses that have overlaid odds – meaning their pari-mutuel odds are greater than their actual chances of winning the race. Is he the most likely winner? NO. But the projected odds offer value and to me it feels like he has an 8-1 or 10-1 chance of winning. If you keep pounding overlays, long term profits await. There are a few things I like about him, including, that he is one of the most experienced runners in the field, and faced GR 1 competition in the BC Turf last year, where he finished 2^nd. He also is the leading money earner in the field. He also sports a win on dirt at Ellis Park, so he does have ability on the surface. Also, the speed figs are comparable to the race favorites, as he earned a 105 EQ rating in last. In addition, though it was on turf, he is the owner of the highest lifetime speed figure in the race as he earned a 109 as a 2YO in the BC Turf race. I also like his post draw as the two to his left and 2 to his right are not speed demons and he could have a chance to break cleanly and establish a mid-pack position early in the race. In short, have to respect his form coming into the race and he may sit the trip in 2^nd flight waiting to pounce. There is an old angle (from my database) — the Churchill dirt surface is often kind to horses with an affinity for the turf. Sneaky live longshot and is worth taking a shot. If his form translates to dirt, he could blow up the board.

1 – Mo Donegal – 10-1: By a son of Uncle Mo, who loved Churchill Downs, his closing style should set up nicely with the expected fast pace. Comes off a fast Wood Memorial victory and had trouble two back in the Fountain of Youth. Detractors might point to the rail as a negative and I would say “not so fast”. They are going to a new gate system where they are all in one gate vs using an auxiliary gate and the net of that is the one post will be 3 or 4 paths to the right from prior years location, so there is more room to maneuver. As a closer, being on the rail is okay as he could save ground on the turns. Also, he won from the one hole in two races at Aqueduct. Overall, I like the odds booster here as 10 to 1 might turn into 13 or 14 to 1 (because of the rail aversion). He has plenty of talent and should be rolling late but will need to work out a trip. He is a must include in all exotics.

10 – Zandon – 3-1:  Overcame a slow pace in weak blue grass field and looks to be training lights out over the Churchill strip. Likely co-favorite will be running late and is a contender to run them down late. Lots to like about this Chad Brown runner and he is a deserving co-favorite. Will also be one that needs to work out a trip but has experience doing just that, as he rallied in a few races from well off the pace to win.

17 – Classic Causeway – 30 – 1: Here is my Pilot to Bombardier play….Here is a horse not getting any buzz in the pre-race run-up. In my view, he is dangerous as he might find himself on the lead turning for home. This colt has plenty of talent and is being unfairly categorized as a fraud because of one bad race. If you draw a line through that race – perhaps he hated the track at GP – he fits based on the speed figures. Also, like the post for his running style as he might have some options to either go to lead or sit off the pace runner’s flank. He has been favored in 4 of his last 5 races so it seems like a pretty big fall from grace to go to 30-1 off of one bad performance. He is at the very least an interesting longshot and if things break his way, could hang around late, and hit the board at a MASSIVE price.

Honorable Mentions (live Long Shots):

Horses I might include underneath as their odds offer some appeal and there is some talent to go along with the inflated price.

7 – Crown Pride – 20 – 1: Winner of UAE Derby hails from Japan and has the breeding to contend at this distance. Japan runners have been on fire this past year and I guess the thing I like the most upon inspection is the talent throughout his pedigree, which includes Sunday Silence on both sides, and Seattle Slew and Kingmambo. If he flops in the Derby would probably still like him in the Belmont, as he is bred to run all day. UAE winners don’t typically do well in the Derby but I would be leery to bucket this guy as a typical UAE winner, as the talent looks to be there, he has a bullet work over the track, and his breeding is special.

16 – Cyberknife – 20 – 1: Mixed feelings on this guy as he has talent but hasn’t proven it vs top notch competition. Like the running style and the trainer is always dangerous. Breeding is nice, by Gun Runner, and is bred to run all day. Tabbing for the Belmont as a contender, but may include underneath today. Leave off tickets at your own risk.

15 – White Abarrio – 10 – 1: Won last two in Florida and has an underrated trainer. Breeding for the distance may not be there, but he is an interesting contender at a price. Dangerous.

Wagering

• Big win bet 9
• Small Win bet 1
• Exacta box – 1-9-10
• Tri Box – 1-9-10-17

Off Track Comments

If the track comes up wet, the following horses could move up:

• Zozos – bred on both sides for slop
• Mo Donegal – Good off-track breeding
• Cyberknife – Gun runner on top, and Distorted humor and Deputy Minister on dam side
• Taiba – Another Gun runner colt who should like slop
• Charge It – Should like it wet

(Check the track condition a few hours before race)

Good luck to all…

Let’s hope for a clean, safe trip for all of the horses and jockeys.

PonyCapper (Whitey)