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****************UPDATE ***************

The 8 horse is scratched which changes the whole complexion of race and makes the race a pass for me….

The 8 was one of the favorites and we were keying him up top in the wagers.

Suggestion would be to save your money for the Belmont as now Mage becomes 3-5 and its tough to swallow that chalk ….

Anyone who needs actin bets can do the following

Small win bet 6 horse

$20 Ex straight – 3 with 6

$2 Superfecta – 3 with 6 with 2-5-7 with ALL

As they say…. We are on to Baltimore !!!!

Unfortunately, we have a watered-down field with only one Derby runner scheduled to compete.

Overall, this is a weak Preakness field, and I am not sure it sets up an ideal scenario for the handicapper trying to make a few bucks.

But, let’s try and squeeze a profit from the lemons we were dealt as we are riding a 3 leg Triple Crown winning streak dating back to last year’s Preakness.

Here is quick field analysis, followed by the approach to structure the tickets.

1 – National Treasure – 4-1: Looks like boom or bust horse to me with either the chance to wire the field or finish up the track. Baffert only 2 for 25 when re-adding blinkers to a horse and you have to think the trainers’ shenanigans are behind him, now that the jurisdictions are keeping a watchful eye. If he was 10-1, sure I would give him a look but the connections will depress the price and 4-1 or less is not fair value. Will lean against here and hope he doesn’t bring his “A” game.

2 – Chase the Chaos – 50-1:  Looks like an outsider on paper given his preference for the synthetic surface. Still, is well-rested, and perhaps an outside chance he can clunk up for 4^th and spoil superfecta dreams.

3 – Mage 8-5: Derby winner displayed tons of talent rallying from off the pace and shows up here on short rest. No doubt, the one to beat and the deserving favorite. Would not knock anyone who is singling this guy in the last leg of a pick 4 or pick 5. Main win contender.

4 – Coffeewithchris – 20-1: Likely pacesetter may find himself alone on the lead with soft fractions. In that scenario, perhaps he can hold on for 3^rd at best, but more than likely he is outclassed today and will give way mid-stretch.

5 – Red Route One – 10-1: His best chance of hitting the board is if a fast pace develops, which doesn’t seem likely to me. He looks like a one-run closer on paper and his best races have been in the slop. Using underneath and has all the makings of clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th scenario.

6 – Perform – 15-1: This will be the 8^th lifetime race for this guy and all were at different race tracks. So, we know he can travel. I really liked the Tesio where he rallied from no-mans-land behind a wall of horses to somehow get up for the win. Has an outside chance at an upset based on the intent of the connections, putting up the 150K supplement fee, and Shug is not a trainer that haphazardly takes a swing for the fences. Kind of oozes trainer confidence and I like that. Play underneath but maybe worth saver win bet.

7 – Blazing Sevens – 6-1: As a Chad Brown fan, and a guy who tabbed Early Voting as the Preakness winner last year, it gives me pause to have to knock this one out. He would need to take a significant step forward to pull off the upset and the 6-1 range is not fair value to partake in that adventure. Horse doesn’t have the talent of the trainer’s past Preakness winners in Early Voting and Cloud Computing, and seems like more of a one-turn miler who won’t appreciate the distance today.

8 – First Mission – 5-2: Talented Brad Cox colt might challenge for favoritism as he is quickly becoming all the rage in wise guy circles off the impressive performance in the Lexington. Lots to love here from a talent perspective and the Baffert horse he beat that day is pretty decent. This will be a major class test today and if he was facing 4 or 5 main rivals from the Derby I might be concerned. But, this is a marginal field, and he definitely fits and is a major contender to win.

My Official Predicted order of finish:

8 – First Mission – Love the post and the jock and trainer hit at 41%, and the most likely triple crown spoiler. Would consider a win bet on him at 5-2 or better but leaning towards keying him up top in the TRIs to get some value (likely will be 2-1 or less for win odds)

3 – Mage – Most talented horse in the field but the 2 week turnaround is only concern. Looks like a two horse race to me and I would be inclined to try and get some value with him singled in the Pick 4 or using underneath in tris and supers.

6 – Perform – Outside chance to crash the party with a good trip but is more likely an underneath play.

5 – Red Route One – Rosario’s best chance is to ride him like Sir Winston in the Belmont, closer to the pace and then try and unleash a late rally.

Wagering Suggestions – $110 budget

Looks like chalkfest so we need to call an audible for anyone trying to make a score…

The two favorites look like they tower over the field so let’s key on top in the exotics.

Risk adverse players can make a few bucks by betting the 8 to win.

Whatever happens, let’s save some cash for the Belmont !!!!!!

Win bet – $10 on 6 (saver, value bet)

Exacta bets – none

$2 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Trifecta Key

8 with 3-5-6 with 2-3-5-6-7 = $12

$2 TRI Box

3-6-8 = $12

$5 Superfecta

8 with 3 with 6 with 5 = $5

$5 Superfecta

3 with 6-8 with 6-8 with 5 = $10

$1 Superfecta

8 with 3-6 with 3-5-6 with ALL = $12

$2 Superfecta

8 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 = $12

$1 Superfecta

3 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 with 2-5-6-8 = $24

Good Luck !!!