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Welcome to Derby 152 !!!

My overall take on this year’s Derby is….ITS WIDE OPEN. We will have 3 or 4 horses battling for favoritism in the 5-1 to 7-1 range. Overall, Looks like a fantastic betting race, with no clear-cut favorite.

The 5 horses that will vie for favoritism are:

Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market and Further Ado. (We could have a 6-1 post time favorite)

One other nuance this year….it seems like a competitive bunch and perhaps tough to eliminate even a few horses from contention – basically, just about everyone “belongs” and it’s tough to toss half the field on merits alone, as we can in a typical year.

Now, let’s jump into the picks….

My Top 3 Win Contenders (in order of preference):

1 – Renegade – ML 4-1. In my opinion, the horse with the most talent in the field is Renegade. He came home in the ARK derby with one of the fastest final eighths, and when you look at the replay….HE DID IT EASY and was pulling away late. Granted, the field was not top-notch, and I get that, but nevertheless, the win was impressive. He also comes in with one of the highest speed figures and has the foundation at 2 that you look for in a derby horse. Yes, he will need to work out a trip, but something tells me he might be more forwardly placed than normal, perhaps with a mid-pack run while saving ground on the first turn. Irad, will need to find a place to run on the final turn and I think the long Churchill stretch works to his advantage as he is one of the few horses in the race, where the extra distance helps, as he has tons of stamina in the pedigree, especially on the dam side (Curlin).

When you add it all up….you get one of the best jocks, you get a super talented horse with proven credentials and where the extra distance will help. And lastly, I think we will get a better price than the ML number suggests – maybe something in the neighborhood of 6-1 or 7-1. And here is some other good news….this horse is getting zero buzz, and I would suspect people are turned off by the rail draw and the dreaded one hole. I am going to go contrarian here because if the horse loses it won’t be because of the post draw. Yes, no horse has won from this post since 1986 (Ferdinand – one of the greats). But, fun-fact, they changed the gate dynamics about 5 years ago and went to one standard gate instead of the auxiliary gate which freed up about 10 feet of room for them to move the starting gate to the right. Now, the one horse doesn’t have the dreaded ”elbow” to contend with, and likely won’t face the same fate as a Lookin at Lucky a few years back, where he caught the elbow. Overall, the number one post is one of the biggest fallacies and we will stand to benefit with an “odds juice” if the horse lands in the winners circle. And lastly, for as long as I have been writing this blog, I have landed on the ML favorite for the win spot exactly ZERO TIMES !!! So, you can infer I really like the horse if I am willing to take 5 or 6-1 in a crowded field with lots of other horses with similar credentials. With the pick, we will take a leap of faith that the jock can work out a trip and come rolling late. Normally, I would shy away from this scenario, but the talent is there and with so much “dead money” in the pool of people chasing names and favorite numbers, you can make an argument the value is there since my FVO (fair value odds) is in the 5-2 range on this guy.

7 – Danon Bourbon – ML 20-1 – This is a combination pedigree and talent play. Pedigree here is phenomenal for the derby distance. First, I have hopes for the relatively new and unproven sire: Maxfield. Maxfield won multiple graded stakes over the Churchill strip, and his sire Street Sense won the Derby at CD. Tons of stamina on the dam side with Tapit in the lineage, with speed influences intertwined to give you that blend of speed and stamina influences you look for in a Derby horse, and the ability to carry speed over a distance of ground. Talent-wise, lot to like here as he is undefeated in 3 starts. Granted, they were all over in Japan, and the competition might be a bit suspect. While technically, he is a Japan horse because of the connections, he is a Kentucky blue-blood and was purchased for 450K at the KEE sale. I also like the set up for him as I can envision a great stalking trip in 2^nd flight and turning for home he pounces on the leaders. The question is whether he can hold off the deep closers – My hunch is yes, given the strong pedigree for the distance and the flashes of brilliance he has demonstrated so far, albeit against inferior competition.

 11 – Incredibolt – ML 20-1. I like this horse….a lot !!! Four reasons. One: love the pedigree here, as he has so much stamina in the bloodlines. Two: When you watch his last race, he looked like he was doing it easy and was being geared down late after romping to a 5-length win. The time was quick too, especially the final eighth.  Third reason is… Trip, which is sometimes a wildcard. He has a mid pack stalker written all over, and can get first jump on the deep closers. And lastly, he is a classic “horse for course” as he loves the track at CD, and has recorded 2 wins from 2 attempts over the strip. And part and parcel to that, reportedly he has been working well over the surface turning a in a bullet 47 and change effort in his final timed workout. Obviously, the horse will need a decent break to secure a mid-pack position. And, if he gets that, I think the talent is there for him to be in the mix deep into the stretch. Overall, when factoring in all that rationale, he is worth a shot at the expected attractive odds.

Underneath Horses

(Horses I like to run underneath to round out the top 4)

(hint: use underneath in trifectas)

If you like any of these yourself, don’t let me talk you off a win bet on them.

 14 – Potente – ML 20-1 – They paid 2.4 million for this Baffert trained runner and he is coming into this somewhat under-the-radar, off a 2-length defeat in the SA Derby. While he may not be the most talented horse in the field, he has every right to improve today, as I think he had some things working against him in the SA Derby. First, he got caught in a pace duel which lasted about half the race, and when I went back and looked at the replays from that day’s card, I did notice a pronounced bias as the track was favoring closers and outside runners. He was stuck on the rail the whole time, dueling on the lead. Basically, against the bias on both accounts. Trainer knows how to get them ready for the derby and an on-the-board finish would not surprise me at a big price.

19 – Golden Tempo – ML 20-1. The sheets guys will love this horse as he was wide around the far turn in his last prep. Any Golden Tempo backers will have to take a leap of faith that he will drastically improve in the 7 weeks off from his last race. The son of Curlin could do just that as I have some degree of confidence that the trainer is more than capable to get some level of improvement from him on the first Saturday in May. Gets Jose Ortiz, who is off to a great start for the meet, and who won 5 races on the card on Oaks day, and I love the pedigree on both sides to think that he might improve with the extra distance. Worse case, and assuming the pace is somewhat honest, I can see him making sustained late run and possibly clunking up for 3^rd or 4^th to round out the exotics, at a square price.

17 – Six Speed – ML 50-1 – This is my “What the heck” “Pilot to Bombardier” play. (A super Longshot with a chance  to hit the board). He will be forwardly placed in a field where there is not a ton of speed. Two angles on this guy. One, the pedigree is impressive for the distance by Not this Time and with the 2^nd Dam (Daydreaming) producing Grade 1 winning stayers like Imagining and a 2-mile steeple horse champion named Awakened. The other angle is the “showed speed off the layoff and faded late”. Based on this form / layoff angle, improvement could be in the works coming off this running line. And, I like the post position as the 17 draw will give him some options to see what the other speed horses do – namely Pavlovian, Litmus Test, Potente, etc. – who are all lined up to his inside. While most cappers see this one on the lead – I don’t. And, he may be in the perfect (cat bird) seat stalking 2 lengths back in 3^rd running down the backstretch. Trainer is crafty and worked under the tutelage of Baffert for 5 years before setting out on his own, making the UAE his home base where he won a couple of trainer titles. Last point, he was purchased privately after his 3^rd race by Jake Ballis, who I have a lot of respect for in “having a keen eye for horse flesh and pedigree”. Add it all up, and you have a 50-1 bombardier who might have the lead turning for home and a slim – but punchers – chance to hold off the more talented runners who will be gunning for him late. A horse wearing the 17-saddle cloth has never won the derby, but it would certainly be ironic if the horse with astronomical odds finally breaks through and ends the curse of (un)lucky number 17. (And, even sweeter if you had a few bucks on him to collect a decent payout)

Miscellaneous Notes

• Yes, the Article post title is from the lyrics of Styx’s classic: Renegade (The DJ in me still lives !!).
• Odds Predictions: The wise guy horses who will bet down from the ML are Emerging Market (15) and Chief Wallabee (12). Both are getting backstretch buzz and you tube chatter. Both may contend for favoritism with Further Ado (18) as your post time favorite.
• Late Scratches: Albus (3), Silent Tactic (13) and Fulleffort (20) are late defections. This means we will have 3 “also eligibles” draw into the field. On paper, all 3 look like glorified allowance runners but we all remember when that 3-legged donkey named Rich Strike left us with shattered dreams and broken hearts, when he scored at 80-1 in 2022.

Wagering Recommendations

I would make two large win bets (on your preference of the top 3)

I would make a large exacta box bet with the 3 top plays (1-7-11) – This is 6 combinations so a $5 ex box would cost you $30. (need 2 of them to finish first and second)

For aggressive types, I would suggest a mix and match strategy for a nice trifecta box or two. You can do a 4-horse trifecta box for 50 cents and it would cost you $12.

(Take the top 3 and sprinkle in a runner you like or from above and do a 4-horse trifecta box).

(example: a 1-7-11-14 tri box for 50 cents would cost $12 and would need 3 of the 4 horses to finish in the top 3 to cash).

A modest budget of $64 could look something like:

• Win bets on 1 and 7 – $20 each – $40 Total
• $2 ex box 1-7-11 – $12 total
• 50 cent tri box – 1-7-11-14 = $12

Lastly, with 20 horses signed on,  the KY Derby is always a crapshoot, so don’t forget to save a few bucks for the Belmont Stakes !!!!

Best of Luck, Whitey