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Tough luck for blog followers in the Derby as Renegade came up a head short.

We will try to turn the agony of defeat in the Derby into a victory in the Preakness !!!!

We have a full field of 14 horses signed on for the race, with no clear-cut favorite.

Add it all up and you have a great betting race, in what looks like to be a very soft, yet competitive field.

Anytime you have a watered down or weak field on paper, whether that is a maiden race, an allowance race, or a G1 Stakes race, I am asking myself 3 questions:

1. Who is the most talented horse in the field?
2. Who is eligible to improve off a dull effort?
3. Who might get the best trip?

The answer to all 3 questions is….NAPOLEON SOLO !!!

My Top Pick:

10 – Napoleon Solo – ML 8-1. In my opinion, the horse with the most talent in the field is this guy. He has the highest Equibase speed figure (99) in the race, and he did that as a 2YO back in October. Most of the runners in here have achieved their highest “fig” as a 3 YO. Secondly, he has every right to improve today. He missed time training with a foot injury heading into Wood Memorial, and he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he was against the track profile, as it strongly favored outside closers. Meanwhile he was on the lead and the rail, and in fact he was dueling with Talk to me Jimmy the whole entire final turn, so you can make an excuse for getting tired late that day. The aforementioned horse in the duel went on to run a credible 2^nd in the Peter Pan stakes. Note, the race two back in the Fountain of Youth was nothing special, but that was first off a decent layoff, and he had some trouble leaving the gate in that one. Further evidence he may be sitting on a big one today was the workout on May 2 at Belmont where he breezed 110 flat for 6 furlongs, which was quite remarkable (and rarely do you see times faster than 111 and change). And lastly, I think the trip will work in his favor. He is drawn to the outside, and the jock has some “options” to send or sit off the pace heading into the first turn. My guess is he will sit off the leaders and look to pounce turning for home. Whether he is good enough to hold off the closers, we shall see. But, when you add it all up….you get (likely) 8-1 range, and you have a talented horse that showed promise as a 2YO, and is eligible to improve off a few dull running lines, with some legitimate excuses. Outside post a plus and unlike many, who think he will be a pace casualty, I think he is drawn perfectly and will get first run turning for home. Overall, a great value play, and one of only a few talented runners signed on, in a very suspect field of 3YO horses.

My Longshot Pick:

13 – Great White – ML 15-1.  Was a gate scratch in the derby as he flipped over entering the gate. On paper, doesn’t look like a contender, but I have a hunch he will show improvement, and the dirt surface is right in his wheelhouse. He changed tactics in the last race (bluegrass stakes) and was caught in a speed duel, and was against the track profile as the rail was like running in quicksand that day. Today, he should sit mid-pack and if good enough, will be in the mix turning for home. I’ll be throwing a saver bet on this guy and take a leap of faith he has figured things out, and the time off has helped this massive son of Volatile. If anything, he is probably the most physically imposing horse in the race, and has a bright future ahead of him, especially on the turf.

Underneath Players:

12 – Incredibolt – ML 5-1.  Disappointed me in the Derby and he really didn’t have much of an excuse. He was rolling late that day and was only about 4-5 lengths off the winner. Any improvement of that effort lands this guy in the top 3 and he should be flying late to perhaps grab a share for a minor award.

5 – Talkin – ML 20-1.  His 3YO campaign has fallen flat with two dull efforts, but with the trainer openly criticizing the jock’s tactics, it makes me think that we haven’t seen the best of this Good Magic colt. He did beat a Derby favorite (Further ado) in his debut at Saratoga and was running late against my top pick today (Napoleon Solo) in the Champagne back in October. Turned in a snappy workout at KEE which makes me think he might be primed for a decent run. With a better ride, and a better jock (Irad) in tow, I can envision this one flying late to grab a share underneath at a decent number.

Official order of finish prediction:

1. 10
2. 13
3. 12
4. 5

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I will play it fairly simple:

• $40 win bet number 10
• $10 win bet 13
• $5 ex box 10-13 = $10
• $2 ex box 10-13-12 = $12
• 50 cent tri box 10-13-12-5 = $12

$84 Investment

(saving funds for the Belmont Stakes on June 6)

You can check out my full Laurel undercard plays here:

Preakness 2026 Undercard Plays

Good luck to all !!!!!