Capper's Corner

Tough luck for blog followers in the Derby as Renegade came up a head short.

We will try to turn the agony of defeat in the Derby into a victory in the Preakness !!!!

We have a full field of 14 horses signed on for the race, with no clear-cut favorite.

Add it all up and you have a great betting race, in what looks like to be a very soft, yet competitive field.

Anytime you have a watered down or weak field on paper, whether that is a maiden race, an allowance race, or a G1 Stakes race, I am asking myself 3 questions:

1. Who is the most talented horse in the field?
2. Who is eligible to improve off a dull effort?
3. Who might get the best trip?

The answer to all 3 questions is….NAPOLEON SOLO !!!

My Top Pick:

10 – Napoleon Solo – ML 8-1. In my opinion, the horse with the most talent in the field is this guy. He has the highest Equibase speed figure (99) in the race, and he did that as a 2YO back in October. Most of the runners in here have achieved their highest “fig” as a 3 YO. Secondly, he has every right to improve today. He missed time training with a foot injury heading into Wood Memorial, and he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he was against the track profile, as it strongly favored outside closers. Meanwhile he was on the lead and the rail, and in fact he was dueling with Talk to me Jimmy the whole entire final turn, so you can make an excuse for getting tired late that day. The aforementioned horse in the duel went on to run a credible 2^nd in the Peter Pan stakes. Note, the race two back in the Fountain of Youth was nothing special, but that was first off a decent layoff, and he had some trouble leaving the gate in that one. Further evidence he may be sitting on a big one today was the workout on May 2 at Belmont where he breezed 110 flat for 6 furlongs, which was quite remarkable (and rarely do you see times faster than 111 and change). And lastly, I think the trip will work in his favor. He is drawn to the outside, and the jock has some “options” to send or sit off the pace heading into the first turn. My guess is he will sit off the leaders and look to pounce turning for home. Whether he is good enough to hold off the closers, we shall see. But, when you add it all up….you get (likely) 8-1 range, and you have a talented horse that showed promise as a 2YO, and is eligible to improve off a few dull running lines, with some legitimate excuses. Outside post a plus and unlike many, who think he will be a pace casualty, I think he is drawn perfectly and will get first run turning for home. Overall, a great value play, and one of only a few talented runners signed on, in a very suspect field of 3YO horses.

My Longshot Pick:

13 – Great White – ML 15-1.  Was a gate scratch in the derby as he flipped over entering the gate. On paper, doesn’t look like a contender, but I have a hunch he will show improvement, and the dirt surface is right in his wheelhouse. He changed tactics in the last race (bluegrass stakes) and was caught in a speed duel, and was against the track profile as the rail was like running in quicksand that day. Today, he should sit mid-pack and if good enough, will be in the mix turning for home. I’ll be throwing a saver bet on this guy and take a leap of faith he has figured things out, and the time off has helped this massive son of Volatile. If anything, he is probably the most physically imposing horse in the race, and has a bright future ahead of him, especially on the turf.

Underneath Players:

12 – Incredibolt – ML 5-1.  Disappointed me in the Derby and he really didn’t have much of an excuse. He was rolling late that day and was only about 4-5 lengths off the winner. Any improvement of that effort lands this guy in the top 3 and he should be flying late to perhaps grab a share for a minor award.

5 – Talkin – ML 20-1.  His 3YO campaign has fallen flat with two dull efforts, but with the trainer openly criticizing the jock’s tactics, it makes me think that we haven’t seen the best of this Good Magic colt. He did beat a Derby favorite (Further ado) in his debut at Saratoga and was running late against my top pick today (Napoleon Solo) in the Champagne back in October. Turned in a snappy workout at KEE which makes me think he might be primed for a decent run. With a better ride, and a better jock (Irad) in tow, I can envision this one flying late to grab a share underneath at a decent number.

Official order of finish prediction:

1. 10
2. 13
3. 12
4. 5

**************************

I will play it fairly simple:

• $40 win bet number 10
• $10 win bet 13
• $5 ex box 10-13 = $10
• $2 ex box 10-13-12 = $12
• 50 cent tri box 10-13-12-5 = $12

$84 Investment

(saving funds for the Belmont Stakes on June 6)

You can check out my full Laurel undercard plays here:

Good luck to all !!!!!

Best Bet – Race 8

Best Upset Play – Race 10, Race 11

Best Exacta Box – Race 2

Race 2

• 10 – Dean Delivers 10 -1 – Gets Jose and battle tested warrior improves today
• 12 – Grand Opening 8-1 – Trainer does well off the layoff and won at this condition 2 back
• 7 – Band Camp – 12-1 – Dangerous if ready off bench. Loves the oval.

Race 3

• 9 – Ocean Sound – 30-1 – First time starter has great turf breeding and the fast works indicate he might be on the engine early. Worth a flyer
• 7 – Pendar – 30-1 – Should improve with the extra distance and Lasix will likely help. Gets Johnny V and they scored at a number before.
• 3 – Naabaahi – 7-2 – First turf and gets Jose Ortiz for hot trainer.

Race 4

• 2 – Passage East – 3-1 – Loves Laurel and gets great set up
• 1 – Striker has Dial – 8-1 – Might be speed of speed and has chance to wire.
• 3 – Kappa Kappa – 5-2 – Snappy works for return

Race 5

• 3 – I love Giraffes – 6-1 – Back with Lasix today and had some sharp works at Belmont. Distance helps.
• 7 – Mambo Queen – 5-1 – Should be flying late and main danger if pace too fast
• 4 – Sassari – 5-2 – Main player

Race 6

• 2 – Big Cuddle – 9-2 – Blinkers help. Tons of talent. Broke slow last. Mows them down late.
• 3 – Lets Go Lando – 6-1 – Ran into Taj Mahal last. Pace helps chances

Race 7

• 6 – Shane’s Wonder – 3-1 – Speedy PA bred may go wire to wire in paceless race
• 8 – Magic Wallet – 15-1 – Showed promise as 2 YO. Can improve 2^nd off layoff with an honest pace
• 4 – Obliteration – 6-5 – Main Player

Race 8

• 8 – Slam Notion – 5-1 – Best bet of the day gets dream set up with the speed signed on. Loves Laurel.
• 2 – Faster Gator – 9-2 – 2 for 2 over strip. Irad can work out a trip.
• 5 – Floodlites – 4-1 – Trainer always dangerous shipping.

Race 9

• 6 – Turf Star – 5-2 – Tepid choice – tread lightly
• 7 – Jessica’s Eyes – 30-1 – May get loose on lead and has an outside chance to surprise.
• 5 = Proton – 9-5 – Main Player

Race 10

• 7 – Harrow – 12-1 – Will be more forwardly placed today and has the talent to pull an upset on mediocre field
• 4 – Fort Washinton – 7-2 – Class of the field is a danger – needs an honest pace

Race 11

• 4 – Warming – 12 -1 – Tons of talent and can shock mediocre field
• 8 – Awesome Czech – 5-1 – Talented NY bred has some good speed figures and can compete today
• 2 – Ribaltagaia – 6-1 – May be lone speed and can improve 2^nd off layoff

Race 12

• 4 – Chasing Liberty – 3-1 – Terrible trip last. Needs honest pace for late run.
• 7 – Isivunguvungu – 10-1 Class of field has speed to be dangerous.
• 11 – Had to Have Him – 8-1 – Last better than looked – Improves off layoff.

Welcome to Derby 152 !!!

My overall take on this year’s Derby is….ITS WIDE OPEN. We will have 3 or 4 horses battling for favoritism in the 5-1 to 7-1 range. Overall, Looks like a fantastic betting race, with no clear-cut favorite.

The 5 horses that will vie for favoritism are:

Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market and Further Ado. (We could have a 6-1 post time favorite)

One other nuance this year….it seems like a competitive bunch and perhaps tough to eliminate even a few horses from contention – basically, just about everyone “belongs” and it’s tough to toss half the field on merits alone, as we can in a typical year.

Now, let’s jump into the picks….

My Top 3 Win Contenders (in order of preference):

1 – Renegade – ML 4-1. In my opinion, the horse with the most talent in the field is Renegade. He came home in the ARK derby with one of the fastest final eighths, and when you look at the replay….HE DID IT EASY and was pulling away late. Granted, the field was not top-notch, and I get that, but nevertheless, the win was impressive. He also comes in with one of the highest speed figures and has the foundation at 2 that you look for in a derby horse. Yes, he will need to work out a trip, but something tells me he might be more forwardly placed than normal, perhaps with a mid-pack run while saving ground on the first turn. Irad, will need to find a place to run on the final turn and I think the long Churchill stretch works to his advantage as he is one of the few horses in the race, where the extra distance helps, as he has tons of stamina in the pedigree, especially on the dam side (Curlin).

When you add it all up….you get one of the best jocks, you get a super talented horse with proven credentials and where the extra distance will help. And lastly, I think we will get a better price than the ML number suggests – maybe something in the neighborhood of 6-1 or 7-1. And here is some other good news….this horse is getting zero buzz, and I would suspect people are turned off by the rail draw and the dreaded one hole. I am going to go contrarian here because if the horse loses it won’t be because of the post draw. Yes, no horse has won from this post since 1986 (Ferdinand – one of the greats). But, fun-fact, they changed the gate dynamics about 5 years ago and went to one standard gate instead of the auxiliary gate which freed up about 10 feet of room for them to move the starting gate to the right. Now, the one horse doesn’t have the dreaded ”elbow” to contend with, and likely won’t face the same fate as a Lookin at Lucky a few years back, where he caught the elbow. Overall, the number one post is one of the biggest fallacies and we will stand to benefit with an “odds juice” if the horse lands in the winners circle. And lastly, for as long as I have been writing this blog, I have landed on the ML favorite for the win spot exactly ZERO TIMES !!! So, you can infer I really like the horse if I am willing to take 5 or 6-1 in a crowded field with lots of other horses with similar credentials. With the pick, we will take a leap of faith that the jock can work out a trip and come rolling late. Normally, I would shy away from this scenario, but the talent is there and with so much “dead money” in the pool of people chasing names and favorite numbers, you can make an argument the value is there since my FVO (fair value odds) is in the 5-2 range on this guy.

7 – Danon Bourbon – ML 20-1 – This is a combination pedigree and talent play. Pedigree here is phenomenal for the derby distance. First, I have hopes for the relatively new and unproven sire: Maxfield. Maxfield won multiple graded stakes over the Churchill strip, and his sire Street Sense won the Derby at CD. Tons of stamina on the dam side with Tapit in the lineage, with speed influences intertwined to give you that blend of speed and stamina influences you look for in a Derby horse, and the ability to carry speed over a distance of ground. Talent-wise, lot to like here as he is undefeated in 3 starts. Granted, they were all over in Japan, and the competition might be a bit suspect. While technically, he is a Japan horse because of the connections, he is a Kentucky blue-blood and was purchased for 450K at the KEE sale. I also like the set up for him as I can envision a great stalking trip in 2^nd flight and turning for home he pounces on the leaders. The question is whether he can hold off the deep closers – My hunch is yes, given the strong pedigree for the distance and the flashes of brilliance he has demonstrated so far, albeit against inferior competition.

 11 – Incredibolt – ML 20-1. I like this horse….a lot !!! Four reasons. One: love the pedigree here, as he has so much stamina in the bloodlines. Two: When you watch his last race, he looked like he was doing it easy and was being geared down late after romping to a 5-length win. The time was quick too, especially the final eighth.  Third reason is… Trip, which is sometimes a wildcard. He has a mid pack stalker written all over, and can get first jump on the deep closers. And lastly, he is a classic “horse for course” as he loves the track at CD, and has recorded 2 wins from 2 attempts over the strip. And part and parcel to that, reportedly he has been working well over the surface turning a in a bullet 47 and change effort in his final timed workout. Obviously, the horse will need a decent break to secure a mid-pack position. And, if he gets that, I think the talent is there for him to be in the mix deep into the stretch. Overall, when factoring in all that rationale, he is worth a shot at the expected attractive odds.

Underneath Horses

(Horses I like to run underneath to round out the top 4)

(hint: use underneath in trifectas)

If you like any of these yourself, don’t let me talk you off a win bet on them.

 14 – Potente – ML 20-1 – They paid 2.4 million for this Baffert trained runner and he is coming into this somewhat under-the-radar, off a 2-length defeat in the SA Derby. While he may not be the most talented horse in the field, he has every right to improve today, as I think he had some things working against him in the SA Derby. First, he got caught in a pace duel which lasted about half the race, and when I went back and looked at the replays from that day’s card, I did notice a pronounced bias as the track was favoring closers and outside runners. He was stuck on the rail the whole time, dueling on the lead. Basically, against the bias on both accounts. Trainer knows how to get them ready for the derby and an on-the-board finish would not surprise me at a big price.

19 – Golden Tempo – ML 20-1. The sheets guys will love this horse as he was wide around the far turn in his last prep. Any Golden Tempo backers will have to take a leap of faith that he will drastically improve in the 7 weeks off from his last race. The son of Curlin could do just that as I have some degree of confidence that the trainer is more than capable to get some level of improvement from him on the first Saturday in May. Gets Jose Ortiz, who is off to a great start for the meet, and who won 5 races on the card on Oaks day, and I love the pedigree on both sides to think that he might improve with the extra distance. Worse case, and assuming the pace is somewhat honest, I can see him making sustained late run and possibly clunking up for 3^rd or 4^th to round out the exotics, at a square price.

17 – Six Speed – ML 50-1 – This is my “What the heck” “Pilot to Bombardier” play. (A super Longshot with a chance  to hit the board). He will be forwardly placed in a field where there is not a ton of speed. Two angles on this guy. One, the pedigree is impressive for the distance by Not this Time and with the 2^nd Dam (Daydreaming) producing Grade 1 winning stayers like Imagining and a 2-mile steeple horse champion named Awakened. The other angle is the “showed speed off the layoff and faded late”. Based on this form / layoff angle, improvement could be in the works coming off this running line. And, I like the post position as the 17 draw will give him some options to see what the other speed horses do – namely Pavlovian, Litmus Test, Potente, etc. – who are all lined up to his inside. While most cappers see this one on the lead – I don’t. And, he may be in the perfect (cat bird) seat stalking 2 lengths back in 3^rd running down the backstretch. Trainer is crafty and worked under the tutelage of Baffert for 5 years before setting out on his own, making the UAE his home base where he won a couple of trainer titles. Last point, he was purchased privately after his 3^rd race by Jake Ballis, who I have a lot of respect for in “having a keen eye for horse flesh and pedigree”. Add it all up, and you have a 50-1 bombardier who might have the lead turning for home and a slim – but punchers – chance to hold off the more talented runners who will be gunning for him late. A horse wearing the 17-saddle cloth has never won the derby, but it would certainly be ironic if the horse with astronomical odds finally breaks through and ends the curse of (un)lucky number 17. (And, even sweeter if you had a few bucks on him to collect a decent payout)

Miscellaneous Notes

• Yes, the Article post title is from the lyrics of Styx’s classic: Renegade (The DJ in me still lives !!).
• Odds Predictions: The wise guy horses who will bet down from the ML are Emerging Market (15) and Chief Wallabee (12). Both are getting backstretch buzz and you tube chatter. Both may contend for favoritism with Further Ado (18) as your post time favorite.
• Late Scratches: Right to Party (5), Silent Tactic (13) and Fulleffort (20) are late defections. This means we will have 3 “also eligibles” draw into the field. On paper, all 3 look like glorified allowance runners but we all remember when that 3-legged donkey named Rich Strike left us with shattered dreams and broken hearts, when he scored at 80-1 in 2022.

Wagering Recommendations

I would make two large win bets (on your preference of the top 3)

I would make a large exacta box bet with the 3 top plays (1-7-11) – This is 6 combinations so a $5 ex box would cost you $30. (need 2 of them to finish first and second)

For aggressive types, I would suggest a mix and match strategy for a nice trifecta box or two. You can do a 4-horse trifecta box for 50 cents and it would cost you $12.

(Take the top 3 and sprinkle in a runner you like or from above and do a 4-horse trifecta box).

(example: a 1-7-11-14 tri box for 50 cents would cost $12 and would need 3 of the 4 horses to finish in the top 3 to cash).

A modest budget of $64 could look something like:

• Win bets on 1 and 7 – $20 each – $40 Total
• $2 ex box 1-7-11 – $12 total
• 50 cent tri box – 1-7-11-14 = $12

Lastly, with 20 horses signed on,  the KY Derby is always a crapshoot, so don’t forget to save a few bucks for the Belmont Stakes !!!!

Best of Luck, Whitey

The Belmont Stakes returns to Saratoga for the 2^nd year in a row while Belmont Park gets a face lift, which means the distance is shortened to one and a quarter miles instead of the normal mile and a half.

Here is your Belmont Stakes rundown:

• Weather
• Pace
• My Selections
• Notes
• Wagering Suggestions

Weather

There is a chance rain will linger into early afternoon, but they are calling for skies to clear later in the afternoon, so my best guess is the track will have some moisture in it, probably a good track by post time, as they sealed it off on Friday, to try and prevent a muddy or sloppy surface for the big race.

Pace

When Todd Pletcher entered Crudo at the last minute it helped both favorites as there would have been a chance that Rodriguez wired the field with a slow uncontested pace. There is still a chance that A-Rod gets loose but I am hopeful Johnny V knows his purpose and won’t allow the race to be stolen. In fact, of the two front runners, I prefer Crudo, as the one to master the steal if the pace is slow. Overall, with the track playing towards speed, it’s entirely possible that one of the these two land in the winner’s circle.

Selections and predicted order of finish:

2 – Sovereignty – 2-1: I know the odds are not ideal and I think most blog observers know I am not a chalk guy, but in this case I don’t want to get too creative and overlook the obvious, which is….this is the best horse and he proved that in the Derby, and now he gets the coveted 5 weeks rest. From all accounts, he has been training well at Saratoga and arrived early to get adjusted to the track. If we assume the track will be playing (somewhat) fair and there is no speed bias, and the fractions aren’t dawdling, then he has every right to mow them down in the stretch. And, that’s the scenario I will be betting on in this rendition of the Belmont Stakes. As far as the odds, I think we will get no worse than 2-1 and it wouldn’t surprise me if we get 5-2 or 3-1 as the betting public might look at the Derby victory as a wet track fluke or a perfect pace set up. True, he got the set up, but I think the talent is there with this colt and the 5 week break will have him ready for his best. My preference would be for him not too to be as far back in this race with the expected slower pace, and to run it like a turf race, where the real race starts at the quarter pole, and the horse with the best closing kick wins. If the half is 49 and change and he is 20 lengths out of it then we can “blame the jockey” for the error in judgement, and a certain defeat.

6 – Baeza – 4-1: He certainly made a good impression in the Derby with a nice 3^rd place finish and a very strong gallop out. Overall, lots to like, and he should sit the trip and get first jump on the closers turning for home. The talent is there on this $1.2 million purchase so I would say he is the main danger to the top pick. But, my hunch is this guy is going to get hammered at the windows, and 4-1 turns into 3-1 or 7-2, and to me, that is not offering the value that I would need to make him a top pick. So, for example, given the choice of Sovereignty at 5-2 or 3-1 and this guy at 7-2 I would take Sovereignty as he is the better horse. Still, he is a must use in the exacta and if the two favorites don’t fire, he is the most likely beneficiary.

1 – Hill Road – 10-1: Horse ripped my heart out in the Peter Pan as I needed the 2^nd place runner for a large score, but nevertheless, I can’t hold grudges in handicapping, and I think this horse has tons of talent and would be a great pick in the Breeders Cup Classic later in the year, with some additional seasoning and time to develop. While the field he beat in last wasn’t the greatest, I think he has room to improve further, 3rd off the layoff and making his 3rd start as a 3YO. Trainer had a HUGE day on Friday and lures a top jock in Irad Ortiz. I can see this one rallying late for 3^rd and has an outside chance to land in the top 2 spots if things break his way, and the pace is fast. He would also improve if the track comes up wet. Including defensively based on talent alone, but tabbing for down the road and he may even have a future on the turf.

8 – Heart of Honor – 30-1: Longshot lost all chance at the start at the Preakness, and I am willing to give this guy another chance. I am expecting an improved effort as he has schooled at the gate and most importantly, the outside post is a huge bonus as he won’t be in the gate getting restless. He has the talent to be in the mix late, and I will draw a line through the last race in the hopes of a rebound. He also earned a 109 BRIS late pace number in the Preakness which makes him a great candidate to make a late run in the Belmont and ruin superfecta dreams.

Notes:

Journalism:

The race favorite is the ultimate boom or bust candidate in the Belmont. He could either win easily or finish up the track. Nothing in between. For me, I am taking a stand against. The last time a horse lost the Derby and won the Preakness and then won the Belmont was 20 years ago when Afleet Alex did it. 5 others were unsuccessful in that span (Curlin, Shackleford, Oxbow, Exaggerator, War of Will). So, there is something to the 3 races in 5 weeks taking a toll, not just in this scenario but even for horses taking the plunge and running in all three legs of the Triple Crown. All that stated, the clincher in my view was the toll that the Preakness may have taken on him. I went back and watched the replay, and he was being asked halfway into the race just to keep up with the leading group, and the finish was a huge exertion of energy. Larry Colmus (Announcer) not even halfway into the race: “Now being nudged along to keep up is Journalism…..nudged along here on the back stretch”. Not a great sign overall. Great horse, but there is a decent chance he fired his best shot in the Preakness, and when the jock asks the question late, he may not have much of a response if the tank is empty. Obviously tossing at my own risk, and it’s even a bigger risk tossing the race favorite, but that’s why they call it gambling. And, if I am wrong, I’ll tip my cap to the winner and call it a day.

Confidence Level:

I would have more confidence in the top pick if the track were playing fair – its not. It has been favoring speed. Can that change overnight, yes, but there is risk here. So, I am treading more lightly than usual in a race which I usually “send it in” on. For the pick to win, one of two things needs to occur: Jock realizes that his horse is up against a bias and takes proactive action to put him in the race earlier and closer to the leaders, or the track profile needs to change prior to the big race. Certainly, there is hope that can happen, especially if we get a drying out track as the day progresses, which often would tend to favor closers.

Wagering Suggestions:

• $50 win Sovereignty – 2 horse (Lets hope for 5-2 or better !!)
• 10 Exacta box – Sovereignty / Baeza (2-6) = $20
• $5 Exacta box – Sovereignty / Hill Road (2-1) = $10
• $2 Trifecta Key – Baeza up top – 6 with 1-2-8 with 1-2-8 = $12 (this is our track bias hedge if the 2 doesn’t win)
• 50 cent Superfecta – 2-6 with 2-6 with 1-8 with ALL = $10

$102 total

As always, Good luck !!

Ponycapper

****Undercard plays at the bottom****

With Sovereignty out, looks like a watered-down Preakness again this year and its obvious a change is needed to the structure of the Triple Crown as horses need more than 2 weeks’ turnaround time.

We will hope for change in the years to come and perhaps the traditionalists will finally cave.

The Preakness is not my strongest leg of the 3 races but let’s give it a go with some tepid bets, saving the large bankroll for the Belmont.

Journalism looks like a strong favorite and if he is 100% fit he should win easily. A famous jockey once said of horses coming off short layoffs: “Regardless of how he looked before the race I never really knew how much was in the tank until I asked him at the top of the stretch”. Lets hope the tank is half-full on SAT because he is by far the best horse in the race and if he shows up, he should romp vs. a weak field that resembles a Grade 2 or 3 race. We will play him as a back stop superfecta hedge in the event he rolls home in front as the strong 6-5 favorite.

One of my strongest angles in the toolshed is the fresh face in a field of donkeys, which usually works well in the maiden claiming races. The quality of this field is terrible and most of the horses on the TC trail don’t really excite me. So, let’s pivot and go in a different direction, pulling a page from this strong angle in the database.

The two fresh faces that intrigue me most are Clever Again and Heart of Honor.

8 – Clever Again (5-1) – Sold for half mil as a yearling and made a big splash as a 2YO in a maiden race at KEE early in his 2YO campaign. Then went to the sidelines and came back and won 2 easy races at Oaklawn. I think there is some hidden talent here and tons of stamina on the dam side which makes him a candidate to play spoiler. Love the post draw as well and may get the stalk and pounce trip, flanking the 1 and 3 early. If he was skipping the Preakness and heading to the Belmont I would be all over him as the pedigree says, “run all day” and will have a future on the turf. And, if he has the lead turning for home, the only one running by him is Journalism. Lots to like and he is a fresh face in a field devoid of talent, outside of the race favorite.

MUSH ALERT !!!

The biggest downside for this guy is that he could possibly be the proverbial wise guy horse, and my guess is we might see the so-called experts on NBC TV like Eddie O and Matty B make Clever Again their top pick, which will be the ultimate cooler for us. Randy Moss may even like him too. It’s almost a lock that the NBC crew will be all over this horse. And, if so, you can go ahead and tear up your tickets, and tell your buddies “We’ve been MUSHED” !!!!

4 – Heart of Honor (12-1) – Another fresh face and has been pointing to this race since his nose defeat in the UAE Derby. Connections have had success bringing horses over from Europe as they almost pulled a shocker in the 2014 BC Classic with Toast of NY. I like a few things here: First he always shows up. In 6 races he has never finished worse than 2^nd. Secondly, he has had some time off to develop and is well rested coming off a 6-week break. The breeding is there as well as Honor AP and the Scat Daddy dam side is the perfect combination of stamina and speed. And lastly, he added blinkers in the last race and was able to stay closer to the early pace as a result, which gives him a more tactical trip for the Preakness. No one is talking about this horse so I can see the 12-1 turning into 18-1 come post time. Will mainly play underneath but he is worth a saver win bet in the event he is primed for an A plus effort. Biggest downside might be the jock, as an unknown commodity.

The underneath horses to clunk up for 3^rd or 4^th could likely be Sandman (7) and Gosger (9). The Tik Tok crew really showed up in KY for Sandman and made him one of the worst betting propositions – without reason – since My Boy Jack about a decade ago. Any kind of pace develops and these are two clunk up candidates for the minors.

Betting the Preakness:

We will play it like this:

• $25 win bet – 8
• $10 win bet – 4
• $2 TRI box – 2-4-8 = $12
• $1 super 2 with 4-8 with 4-8-7-9 with 4-8-7-9 = $12
• $3 super 8 with 2 with 4 with 7-9 = $6

Total investment = $65

Undercard Plays

I love the undercard today and my strongest plays are below !!! Fire away !!!

GOOD LUCK !!!!

Race 8 – Chick Lang

• 10 – Touchy 8-1 – Gets dream set up with fast pace
• 7 – Faster Gator 6-1 – May change tactics and take on stalker role

Race 9 – Jim McKay

• 4 – Witty 10-1 – Greatest value of the day – loves soft turf – gets nice set up with the abundance of speed in race
• 1 – Boats a Rockin 20-1 – speed of speed, could hit the board at number.

Race 10 – Sir Barton

• 9 – Just a Fair Shake 6-1 – Benefits from fast pace – has the talent
• 8 – Authentic Gallop 8-1 – Only other closer in race

Race 11 – James Murphy

• 5 – End of Romance 9-2 – Will like footing
• 3 – Clock Tower 5-1 – May try to wire a field that is lacking pace

Welcome to Derby 151 !!!!

I think we all know the derby is a complete crapshoot and now we are adding another wildcard into the mix with the weather and the uncertain track condition.

The forecast has been wrong all week so maybe they will be wrong again and the track will be dry or at least drying out.

We’ve had a few defections, which allowed the 21 horse, Baeza, to sneak into the field.

The main question relevant for every derby — and in more so this year — is the expected pace and how will it impact the results? This is always the wildcard. With at least 4 or 5 confirmed front runners on board, the pace should be solid and I would expect that the race plays fair from a pace standpoint. In other words, I expect the best horse to win with no front runner stealing it on an easy lead and no closer benefiting from a clear pace meltdown. Rodriguez coming out helps the chances of the front runners.

Here are my top picks and horses I will be keying on, in order of preference, based on the value we will be getting on the odds board:

12 – East Avenue (20-1) – Horse has tons of talent and is coming in a little under the radar with those ML odds. The Godolphin runner comes into this with ideal race spacing, and the foundation as a quality runner as a 2YO. I would have thought this horse would be getting more buzz but I am hearing people say he can’t get the distance, and he might be pace compromised as a need the lead horse. Both arguments are non-sense. The breeding for the distance is great as a son of Medaglia D’oro out of a Ghostzapper mare. Did he wobble a little in the stretch in the Blue Grass? Yes, but he changed to the wrong lead late which likely hurt him and the Keeneland track had been favoring closers all day. The fast fractions he set, and the track bias that day cost him the victory, and he only lost by a nose !! But, besides the talent, the biggest reason I like him is the tactical trip I envision for him, and that’s mainly the result of his IDEAL post position (12) for his running style. This guy is a speed ball and most handicpapers see him as the pace setter. I don’t. I see him laying in 2^nd flight and to the outside of the 1 horse, Citizen Bull. Most of the speed horses signed on have drawn to the inside and I can see him sitting just off the flank, with a great stalking spot. An ideal trip, he is sitting in 3^rd to the outside coming down the backstretch and taking the lead at the top of the stretch and if he is good enough, holding off the closers late. On the downside, his chances could be compromised if he breaks poorly or gets lost at the start. Also, a drying out track favorable to closers would hurt his chances. Overall, this guy a major player based on talent alone, and he is worth a win bet and worse case, I can see him hitting the board at a decent number. As of Friday, he was sitting on tote board at 35-1, so why not take a swing for the fences.

3 – Final Gambit (30-1) – This is a pure pedigree play !!! No doubt he will improve on the dirt as he is bred more for that surface than the synthetic. He will need some pace in front of him to improve his chances, but he has a HUGE late kick – in fact the best late pace figure in the field, and he should enjoy the longer Churchill stretch. The scratch of Rodriguez doesn’t help the pace scenario and that’s my only worry since he is a deep closer. Still, there are lots to like here, and trained by Brad Cox, I am fairly confident this horse is going to run a big race. Whether he can get up in time, not sure…but huge chance to hit the board here at a number. Others making the synthetic to derby switch have fared well such as Two Phils, Orb, Animal Kingdom etc., and with a pedigree to love the dirt I can see a big step forward. He was listed at around 15-1 on Friday. And, trained by Brad Cox, this kind of tote action is not a surprise.  

8 – Journalism (3-1) – The race favorite is rock solid and should get the coveted mid pack trip in the derby. In his last win in the SA Derby, he showed some versatility to overcome a tough trip, and he has the best speed figures in the race. If he shows up, and runs his race, the others will be running for 2^nd. Besides the talent, the biggest positive for him is the likely stalking or mid pack trip which gives him first run to pounce on the front runners and hold off the closers. Only knock on him is he has been facing small fields in California and since he has never run at Churchill, you can’t be 100% sure he will like the track. Also, has never run in the slop so that is a wildcard if it comes up wet. Tons of talent, and if he can avoid trouble, I would say he is a virtual lock to hit the board and at least run 3^rd.  

18 – Sovereignty – 5-1 – Dangerous runner though I don’t love the post for his running style. Will need to work out a trip to land in the winner’s circle. Tons of talent and my guess is that he wasn’t 100% cranked for the last as he had the points to get in. He has already proven that he likes the track as he won the Grade 3 Street Sense as a 2Yo over the strip. Another who will need pace, and I can see this guy rallying late to grab a share. And a win is not totally out of the question. With all the dead money in the pool, and no one really talking this guy up, he was floating at around 8-1 on Friday, which is an absolute screaming bargain !!

Some honorable mentions:

These horses just missed the cut and if you like them, fire away:

14 — Tiztastic – moves way up on a wet track – more on that below.

9 — Burnham Square – Love the horse but just don’t know how he will fare in a big field with a lot of kick back. Also, seems to be the buzz horse, and he looks great in the warmups. The clockers love him.

21 — Baeza – Certainly will be the wise guy horse and I expect the odds to drop on Saturday (after everyone realizes that he is the race). Drew into the field with the Rodriguez defection. Cost 1.2 mil and certainly looks to be a good one. Lots to like but leaning towards others for budgetary reasons.

5 –American Promise – Would greatly benefit from an off track, whose sire Justify romped in the Derby, and who is well known for passing the slop gene down to his progeny.

WAGERING Tips

So, how do we make some cash ??

Here are some options based on your risk profile.

Medium Risk/Medium Reward

If you have the budget, go 4 sawbucks each on my top 2 picks. So, $40 on each. $80 total. You are covered on the pace scenario as one is a front runner and one a closer. In a 20-horse field it is perfectly acceptable to bet on 2 horses to win, especially given the value offered with all the dead money in the pools. I learned this two years ago with a big saver bet on Mage. And, if it hits you are looking at $650 plus to take the entire family out for a nice steak dinner.

Low Risk/ High reward

Just do some exotics to spice things up and take down a score.

My favorite bets would be:

$2 exacta box – 3-8-12 – 12 bucks

$2 exacta box – 3-12-18 – 12 bucks

$1 tri box – 3-8-12-18 – $24 bucks

$48 total

And, budget permitting, feel free to go “double action” or all in on both bets for a total of $128.

His Mother’s a Mudder??

And then lastly, we will need one additional bet if the track comes up wet….let’s call it the Pappanick special for the Seinfeld fans out there….

The best mudder in the field is a horse who has never run in the slop before, but the breeding is fantastic to love the off going.

Our mudder is TIZTASTIC !!!! 14 horse. He was around 18-1 on Friday.

Here is the case for him:

This horse has never been over the slop but the pedigree says he will love it. Sire Tiz the Law has so much wet track influence….. sire Constitution has wet track influence with Distorted humor on the dam side. And Tiz the Law has tremendous off track pedigree with Tiznow, and hidden in there is go for gin who won the derby in the slop and also crafty prospector, another mudder. And Tiztastics dam side is loaded as well and has some really nice wet track pedigree. You are looking at Storm Cat and Fappiano buried deep on the mother’s side. And, Tiztastic’s 3rd dam, Strategic Maneuver, won the G1 Matron in the slop. Besides the pedigree, maybe the race sets up for him as he would also benefit from a fast pace and I like the pairing of Joel Rosario here, who fits the running style to a tee.

So, let’s add another sawbuck….a $10 win bet as a “saver” for a rainy day.

Good luck and if the racing gods aren’t with us….we will hope to recoup our losses in the Belmont.

Whitey 

Welcome to Belmont 2024

We have 10 runners today and this year’s rendition sees a venue change to Saratoga as Belmont is down for repairs.

This is a major development as:

The distance has been reduced to one mile and one quarter which is a quarter mile less than the normal distance for this race.

Additionally the tighter turns at Saratoga replace the wider sweeping turns at Belmont.

What does it all mean…probably not much but I will be reducing reliance on distance pedigree due to the shorter race.

Here is how I break down the race:

I am going to toss the two horses who ran on derby day and Preakness day, as its really tough to perform at a high level in the 3^rd race in 5 weeks. SO Mystic Dan and Seize the Grey are downgraded.

Leaning against the two Pletcher outsiders in Antiquarian and Protective, as they seem a cut below and represent the barns 2^nd stringers. Protective has an outside chance to hit the board as a longshot as he had a tough trip in the Peter Pan. If this was a mile and a half I would probably upgrade both runners chances.

The Wine Steward is a gritty NY bred that always seem to show up but he may be a cut below these and I don’t think the stretch out in distance does him any favors. He does have a nice win over the track. But, leaning against.

And, that brings me to Mindframe….who epitomizes boom or bust outcomes. This is a tough call because I can see him winning by 6 or getting trounced, probably nothing in between. He is a buzz horse, hails from a good barn, and has tons of talent, so it would be dangerous to exclude this guy. But, I am probably leaning against even though it’s a tough call. This would only be his 3^rd start and he really beat a soft allowance field last time while setting comfortable fractions. In his debut, he was impressive and the speed fig was awesome but he got the perfect trip that day. To me it kind of feels like a sucker bet and the fact he is coming off Lasix gives me pause to back him at a short price, as he will be way overbet.

As far as race set up I don’t see much speed in the race on paper so that will benefit the front runners and speed did fairly well on the Friday card.

Advantage front runners and stalkers.

Which leads me to my top 2:

I am going to go Dornach (6 horse, 15-1 ML) here as I think his trip in Derby was brutal and has every right to bounce back today with his tactical speed advantage. Has tons of talent and he can be either on the lead or sit right off the 1 horse. He benefits the most with today’s reduced distance in the Belmont, from the normal distance.

My 2^nd choice is Resilience (2 horse, 10-1 ML) as he had showed signs of improvement in the Derby, making an 8 wide move on the final turn. He is definitely headed in the right direction since the blinkers were added and I really like the potential for a great trip, with tactical speed in 2^nd flight while saving ground. He will be pushing his limits for distance here but he is another that benefits from the distance reduction at Saratoga. Trainer is not one to take triple crown shots so part of the logic is putting faith in the connections and their level of confidence.

Rounding out the top 4:

Sierra Leone (9 horse, 9-5 ML) was a tough luck loser in the derby and gets a huge jockey upgrade today as Prat is the best rider in the country. May not get the dream set up with a slower pace today but overall he should be running late, and is the deserving favorite. Main danger to ruin our Belmont party.

And then to round out the super, Honor Marie (8 horse, 12-1 ML) can definitely clunk up for 4^th, and has an outside chance to blow up the board in a meltdown scenario. He had a terrible trip and gets a big jock upgrade. Has tons of hidden talent just needs a better trip and pace set up to make noise.

Wagering:

Big win bet on Dornach

Small win bet on Resilience

And lets box up a trifecta with the 4 runners – 2-6-8-9

Good Luck

Whitey

Looks like we have another watered-down Preakness field and if we are looking at this objectively, it is not a great betting race.

Muth was the ML favorite and he is SCRATCHED.

Along with his defection, the pace should be slower. The only speed horses left in the field are the Baffert horse, Imagination, and Just Steel.

Those two should hook up early, but will give the edge to Imagination to win the pace battle.

The best horse in the field is Mystik Dan who comes off a dream trip in the derby. He will be the deserving favorite.

The horse with an outside chance to ruin the party at a price is Uncle Heavy. He had a dreadful trip in the Wood as he broke slow and was wide that day when the rail was the place to be. I can see him running well, and with a top Jock on board, I envision he will ride the rails and hope to sneak through at the top of the lane if the pace falls apart. We won’t get the ML price of 20-1, but anywhere in the 10 or 12 to 1 range should be fair.

I will be treading lightly and live to fight another day, but for now, let’s do a small to medium win bet on the deuce, Uncle Heavy, and then will do a TRI BOX 2-5-9 – Uncle Heavy, Mystik Dan, Imagination.

Note, there is a decent chance of rain early in the day, and if we get any kind of rain past 4 pm then the track condition could be muddy or good.

That would actually help the 2 as he has two wins in the slop. If the track is wet I would advise doing an extra trifecta bet with the 2-5-8 box as the 8 would really move up in the off-going.

Good Luck

Ponycapper

Past Derby’s offer a window into lessons learned.

In the 2018 Derby, I had some degree of confidence that Justify and Good Magic would finish 1-2 but really had no idea on who would round out the 3^rd and 4^th spots.

I took a “SUPER” stab that day with Instilled Regard as a huge longshot to run 3^rd and used the all button for 4^th. The $17 ticket seemed like a long shot in its own right, and it turned out to be a losing ticket, but when it came out Justify, Good Magic, Audible and Instilled Regard, and paid 19K for a one dollar ticket, my lessons learned were:

1. The super is the way to go when you have a lock favorite to finish first because the payouts can be fairly “generous” even if the 2^nd choice finishes 2^nd.
2. And the All button is a great tool  to create value, especially when a nice longshot runs up for 4^th

So, keeping this in mind, and instead of taking stabs on win bets on other horses, lets throw in a super keying the favorite, with the all button used for 4^th and we will also go with the more traditional SUPER KEY.

I believe Fierceness is the best horse in the race and one scenario that makes the most sense to me is Fierceness extends his lead turning for home, crushing the hearts of the other front runners, and setting up the race for closers to come running late and clunk up for 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th. This assumes he breaks well and runs his “A” race.

The most obvious horse to run 2^nd would be Sierra Leone, as I think he is a monster horse.

So, we are looking at a pretty chalky exacta with 2-1 over 9-2, and perhaps that pays 50 bucks for a deuce.

Lets swing for the fences and try to turn superfecta dreams into reality with a few economical tickets.

For the ALL BUTTON SUPER, lets go with:

1. Fierceness
2. Sierra Leone
3. Honor Marie and Catching Freedom
4. ALL

This will cost $34

Ticket looks like:

$1 Super — 17 with 2 with 4-7 with ALL

Then let’s do a SUPER KEY

Here, we will key Fierceness up top and use 4 underneath

The 3 I like most are the ones listed above as all 3 should be closing. And, then lets throw in a bomb in Society Man who is absolutely loving the track at CD.

$1 Super Key:

• 17 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20 with 2-4-7-20
• Cost is $24

If one of the above supers hits, perhaps we turn $58 bucks into 2K.

To recap from previous post:

My top 3

Fierceness, Sierra Leonne, Honor Marie

DO TRI BOX with these 3 and then sprinkle in the supers noted above.

Good Luck

Ponycapper

Let’s try and parlay two well meant favorites in the Derby with some standouts in the OAKS to try and juice up the payouts, and make it back to back years of Oaks-Derby double success.

The two Oaks standouts for me are:

13 – Just FYI

11 – Ways and Means

Both of these horses would move way up on an off track and even on a dry track are still the main contenders and horses to beat in the 150^th running of the Oaks.

Just FYI’s return race in the Ashland last month was clearly a prep for today’s race as she was absolutely cold on the tote board in a suspect field. She raced wide all the way around the course and was 4-5 wide turning for home. There was an extreme rail and speed bias the first few days of the Keeneland meet and she was compromised on both fronts.

Just FYI has 2 Grade 1 wins on the resume including the Breeders cup last year. The horse moves way up on an off track as she has a win in the slop and has tremendous off track breeding.

Feels like 9-2 is a bit of a gift so perhaps the number is 7-2 come post.

Ways and Means had one of the worst Irad rides last time at GP. She made a 6 wide middle move in the race, a move that rarely works out or results in a victory. She did run well to finish 2^nd, and is one of the most talented fillies in the field. You can also make an argument that the race was a glorified prep with the Oaks being the target all along, and with a new pilot in Tyler G, I can see her having a great chance turning for home.

Some underneath horses to consider are the 5, Thorpedo Anna, and a longshot filly, the 10 Into Champagne.

My official Oaks order of finish predictions:

1. 13 – Just FYI
2. 11 – Ways and Means
3. 5 – Torpedo Anna
4. 10 – Into Champagne

So Lets play a weighted Oaks-Derby Double as follows:

Top choices:

Just FYI and Fierceness

2^nd choices

Ways and Means and Sierra Leone

Structure as follows:

• $25 double – Just FYI / Fierceness
• $15 double – Just FYI / Sierra Leone
• $15 double – Ways and Means / Fierceness
• $10 double – Ways and Means / Sierra Leone

If we connect, the $65 investment should net anywhere between $400 to $600 depending on the winning combo.

To me, this is a nice alternative for creating value if you are considering straight win bets on either of the two Derby favorites.

Good Luck !!